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Call Updates

Constellation Energy - CEG - cls: 103.64 chg: +0.49 stop: 97.45

CEG continues to trade sideways inside the $102-104 range. We do not see any changes from our previous comments. More conservative traders might be able to inch up their stop a bit. The Point & Figure chart has produced a triple-top breakout buy signal. Our target is the $107.50-110.00 range. FYI: We did not hear or see any news regarding CEG's analyst conference today.

Picked on November 20 at $100.56
Change since picked: + 3.08
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million

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Energizer - ENR - close: 116.39 chg: -1.06 stop: 109.95

ENR encountered some profit taking but bulls bought the dip near $115 and the stock maintained its bullish trend of higher lows. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to raise their stops toward the $112 zone. FYI: The P&F chart has a very bullish pattern called a bullish triangle breakout and it is forecasting a $157 target.

Picked on November 26 at $112.75 *triggered
Change since picked: + 3.64
Earnings Date 01/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 511 thousand

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Excel Maritime - EXM - close: 50.45 change: -2.34 stop: 46.45

EXM continues to show volatility. The stock dipped to $48.26 before bouncing back but shares still closed with a 4.4% decline. A rebound from here could be used as a new bullish entry point but readers will want to strongly consider a tighter stop near $48.00. We would consider this a higher-risk, more aggressive play. Our target is the $57.50-60.00 range but we might have to adjust it for the 50-dma (currently at $59.29). The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $98 target.

Picked on December 09 at $ 50.16
Change since picked: + 0.29
Earnings Date 03/13/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million

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Holly Corp. - HOC - close: 46.48 change: -1.45 stop: 44.95

Crude oil lost $2 today yet the OIX oil index posted a gain. Unfortunately this relative strength in the oil sector failed to rub off on HOC. The stock lost 3% and looks poised to dip toward support near $45.00. We warned readers this might happen. At this time we would wait for a bounce near $45.00 before considering new positions. Our target on HOC is the $54.75-55.00 range.

Picked on December 03 at $ 50.58 *bad tick/gap open
Change since picked: - 4.10
Earnings Date 02/12/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 859 thousand

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Itron Inc. - ITRI - close: 79.97 change: -1.70 stop: 77.85

ITRI struggled through another day of selling pressure. The close under $80.00 is negative. Investors did buy the dip near $79 but it may not be enough. Any market weakness tomorrow and ITRI will probably hit our stop loss at $77.85. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $86.00-87.00 range near its 100-dma. Last week's rally has pushed the target on the P&F chart from $92 to $107.

Picked on December 06 at $ 80.26 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.29
Earnings Date 02/13/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 824 thousand

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JA Solar - JASO - close: 63.02 change: +1.04 stop: 56.25

Thursday proved to be another volatile session for shares of JASO. The stock produced a bearish failed rally near $65.00 this morning but traders bought the dip near $60.00 and its rising 10-dma. These conflicting signals add a lot of noise that traders have to sift through but overall the trend continues to look bullish. The stock has already hit our conservative target in the $64.50-65.00 range. Our next, more aggressive target is the $69.00-70.00 zone. This remains an aggressive play.

Picked on December 03 at $ 56.25 *triggered
Change since picked: + 6.77
Earnings Date 03/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million

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Nat.Oilwell - NOV - close: 76.65 change: +1.62 stop: 68.90

We don't see any changes from our previous comments on NOV. The stock continues to rally and shares are nearing our target. NOV's 2% rally today was a sign of relative strength in the face of a $2 drop in crude oil. More conservative traders might want to use a tighter stop loss closer to $70.00. I would strongly suggest that readers consider taking some money off the table right now and lock in a gain. Our target is the $79.00-80.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with an $84 target.

Picked on December 03 at $ 70.73
Change since picked: + 5.92
Earnings Date 02/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.5 million

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Nucor - NUE - close: 60.76 change: -0.62 stop: 56.75

NUE suffered a minor loss but traders bought the dip near $60 and its 10 and 200-dma again. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. A rally from here could be used as a new bullish entry point. Our target is the $64.90-65.00 range.

Picked on December 06 at $ 60.15 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.61
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.6 million

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Research In Motion - RIMM - cls: 104.27 chg: +4.06 stop: 96.75

Shares of RIMM saw their rally really take off late this afternoon. This move has broken the short-term trend of lower highs. Our target is the $109.50-110.00 range. More aggressive traders could aim for the 50-dma, currently near $113.40.

Picked on December 11 at $100.00 *triggered
Change since picked: + 4.27
Earnings Date 12/20/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 32.2 million

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Union Pacific - UNP - close: 133.80 chg: +1.23 stop: 126.95

Bulls bought the dip near $130 yet again and the bounce looks like another bullish entry point. More conservative traders will want to consider raising their stops closer to $130. Our initial target is the $139.00-140.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $138 target.

Picked on December 06 at $130.50 *triggered
Change since picked: + 3.30
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million
 

Put Updates

Agrium - AGU - close: 58.00 change: -1.09 stop: 65.01

AGU continued to sink on Thursday. Shares gapped lower and dipped to $56.50 before bouncing back. The stock does look a little short-term oversold and due for a bounce. We're not suggesting new positions right here but a failed rally under $60 or $62 could be used as an entry point. Our target is the $55.10-55.00 zone but more aggressive traders may want to aim for the rising 100-dma closer to $52.00.

Picked on December 11 at $ 59.66
Change since picked: - 1.66
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

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Boeing - BA - close: 88.55 change: +1.63 stop: 93.26

There shouldn't be any surprises here. We warned readers yesterday that BA looked ready to bounce. Today's move actually looks like a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, which raises our concern. Look for broken support near $90 to act as new resistance. Our target is the $85.55-85.00 range.

Picked on December 04 at $ 91.43 *triggered/gap down
Change since picked: - 2.88
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.0 million

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Garmin - GRMN - close: 105.06 chg: +3.33 stop: 112.55

We warned readers that GRMN was a volatile stock. We also noted that after yesterday's session the stock looked poised to bounce. A failed rally in the $105-108 zone can be used as a new bearish entry point for puts. Remember, this is a very volatile stock and this should be considered an aggressive play. We have two targets. Our first target is the $96.00-95.00 zone. Our second target is the $91.00-90.00 zone.

Picked on December 11 at $104.78
Change since picked: + 0.28
Earnings Date 02/14/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.2 million

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Sears Holding - SHLD - cls: 109.34 chg: -0.68 stop: 117.55

SHLD under performed the markets today with another loss but we suspect the stock is poised for a bounce tomorrow. Look for a failed rally in the $112-115 zone as a potential entry point for new bearish positions. We have two targets. Our first target is the $100.50-100.00 range. Our second more-aggressive target is the $92.50-90.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $78 target.

Picked on December 11 at $110.28
Change since picked: - 0.94
Earnings Date 10/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.3 million

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Shire Plc - SHPGY - close: 67.07 change: -3.52 stop: 73.51

Wow! That was a little unexpected. We were bearish on SHPGY but we were not expecting a gap down today. It looks like the markets were unhappy with news out this morning before the opening bell that SHPGY was making some board changes and current executive chairman James Cavanaugh would be retiring next year. We were suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $69.19 but SHPGY gapped open at $68.07. Unfortunately, we have to take this as our entry point. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The stock could see an oversold bounce tomorrow. Watch for a failed rally near $70 as an entry point. Our initial target is the $65.25-65.00 range although we're considering a more aggressive target in the $62-60 region. FYI: Any time we play a biotech or even a drug stock we're dealing with a higher-risk situation. We are at risk that some FDA decision or some clinical trial news could send the stock gapping one direction or the other.

Picked on December 13 at $ 68.07 *triggered/gap down entry
Change since picked: - 1.00
Earnings Date 02/00/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 956 thousand
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Lehman Brothers - LEH - close: 61.37 chg: -0.45 stop: n/a

Hmm... the trading in LEH today was very anticlimactic. We were expecting a big move on its earnings news and guidance this morning. The company actually beat estimates and it didn't seem like investors were happy with the sort of guidance regarding LEH's subprime exposure. Yet the stock did not react. Shares traded with a $4.00 range but closed almost unchanged. The lack of a reaction is a BIG negative for this strangle play and more conservative traders are strongly encouraged to exit early now and cut their losses. The options we suggested for our strangle were the December $65 call (LES-LM) and the December $55 put (LES-XK). Our estimated cost was $2.35 and we want to sell if either option hits $4.45.

Picked on December 11 at $ 61.14
Change since picked: + 0.23
Earnings Date 12/13/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.3 million
 

Dropped Calls

Aluminum Corp. of China - ACH - cls: 53.96 chg: -3.04 stop: 54.45

Big drops in the Chinese stock market weighed heavily on shares of ACH. The stock reacted to trading overseas by gapping open lower this morning in New York. Shares opened at $54.08, under our suggested stop loss at $54.45. The stock closed under short-term support at the $55.00 level.

Picked on December 12 at $ 56.50
Change since picked: - 2.54
Earnings Date 03/08/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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