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Call Updates

Constellation Energy - CEG - cls: 100.93 chg: -2.71 stop: 97.45

Ouch! CEG just erased most of our unrealized gains. The stock lost 2.6% on Friday and following a week of trading sideways the short-term technical indicators have turned bearish. Stepping back the overall trend is still bullish but CEG may continue to struggle if the markets continue lower (and our market bias is bearish). A bounce from $100 would look like a new bullish entry point but we would hesitate to open new bullish positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to exit early now. We are adjusting our stop loss to $98.49.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new bullish plays on CEG at this time.

Picked on November 20 at $100.56
Change since picked: + 0.37
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million

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Energizer - ENR - close: 115.00 chg: -1.39 stop: 109.95

The short-term bullish trend in ENR is also struggling. Short-term technical indicators have turned bearish over the last week. On the positive side volume has been light on the consolidation. If you do not want to endure a dip back toward support near $112.50 or $110 then we would suggest exiting now or raising your stop loss toward $114.00. We are not suggesting new positions. Our target has been the $119.00-120.00 range and shares hit $118.88 on Wednesday last week. FYI: The P&F chart has a very bullish pattern called a bullish triangle breakout and it is forecasting a $157 target.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on November 26 at $112.75 *triggered
Change since picked: + 2.25
Earnings Date 01/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 511 thousand

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Holly Corp. - HOC - close: 48.95 change: +2.47 stop: 44.95

HOC displayed some relative strength on Friday. Moving the stock was news that a Goldman Sachs analyst had raised his view on the oil refining sector. Plus, HOC was added to one of Goldman's "buy" lists. The stock added 5.3% on above average volume, which is bullish. Shares are poised for a potential breakout from this consolidation. A strong move over $50 would make this look like a bottom has formed over the past few weeks. It would be tempting to buy this bounce but readers will probably want to wait for the breakout over $50.00. Our target on HOC is the $54.75-55.00 range.

Suggested Options:
If HOC provides a new entry point we would suggest the January calls.

Picked on December 03 at $ 50.58 *bad tick/gap open
Change since picked: - 1.63
Earnings Date 02/12/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 859 thousand

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Itron Inc. - ITRI - close: 78.69 change: -1.28 stop: 77.85

Did we get too greedy? Maybe. ITRI triggered our bullish play on the breakout over resistance at $80.00. Our trigger was $80.26. The stock rallied to within a couple of cents of $85.00. However, we were aiming for the early November highs closer to $86-87. The stock has since given back all of its gains. Is it game over? The close under $80.00 and its 200-dma is definitely bearish. Short-term technicals have turned negative but after a week of selling is it time for a bounce again? We would suggest buying calls again if ITRI can trade above $80.25 one more time. Unfortunately, the market mood has turned bearish and ITRI may continue to sink. This time we're adjusting our target to $84.90-86.00. More aggressive traders could aim for the 50 or 100-dma near $87.50. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $107 target. Meanwhile the most recent data puts short interest on the stock at more than 15% of the 29.75-million share float. That is a high amount of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze, which would obviously be a great thing for us at this point!

Suggested Options:
If ITRI provides a new entry point we would suggest the January or February calls.

Picked on December 06 at $ 80.26 *triggered
Change since picked: - 1.57
Earnings Date 02/13/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 824 thousand

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Nat.Oilwell - NOV - close: 77.37 change: +0.72 stop: 69.99*new*

NOV continues to rally and shares hit an intraday high of $78.34. Our target is the $79.00-80.00 range but we would strongly suggest that readers consider exiting now and locking in a gain. The stock is starting to look oversold and due for a dip. We are expecting a pull back on Monday back to the $75.50-74.50 region. We are adjusting our stop loss to $69.99 but more conservative trades (who choose not to exit now) will want to consider a higher stop. We are not suggesting new positions at this time.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new positions in NOV.

Picked on December 03 at $ 70.73
Change since picked: + 6.64
Earnings Date 02/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.5 million

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Union Pacific - UNP - close: 130.56 chg: -3.24 stop: 129.45*new*

Hmm... traders have a tough choice to make with UNP. The stock has been trading with big intraday swings in the $130-136 range all week long. While it is encouraging to see support at $130.00 hold up so well the trading above $130 has been bearish! Furthermore the major indices, including the transportation index, look like they're growing more bearish. If the transports breakdown we would expect UNP to follow suit. At this time more conservative traders will want to strongly consider an early exit right here. We are raising our stop loss to $129.45. We're not suggesting new positions.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new positions.

Picked on December 06 at $130.50 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.06
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million
 

Put Updates

Agrium - AGU - close: 57.96 change: -0.04 stop: 65.01

Are we missing something? Shares of AGU traded sideways in an extremely narrow range on Friday. It's almost like investors are waiting for something. I checked the news again and I didn't see anything that might suggest this sort of holding pattern. The trend still looks like the stock has produced a bearish double-top pattern. Watch for a failed rally near $60 as a new entry point for puts. Our target is the $55.10-55.00 zone but more aggressive traders may want to aim for the rising 100-dma closer to $52.00.

Suggested Options:
If AGU provides another entry point we would suggest the January puts.

Picked on December 11 at $ 59.66
Change since picked: - 1.66
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

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Boeing - BA - close: 88.42 change: -0.13 stop: 93.26

Entry point alert! BA rallied toward short-term resistance near $90.00 and reversed. This failed rally pattern is a new entry point to buy puts. Currently our target is the $85.55-85.00 range. We are also adding a second, more-aggressive target in the $81.50-80.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $75 target.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the January or February puts.

BUY PUT JAN 90.00 BA-MR open interest=28659 current ask $3.80
BUY PUT JAN 85.00 BA-MQ open interest=15715 current ask $1.65

BUY PUT FEB 90.00 BA-NR open interest= 7612 current ask $5.00
BUY PUT FEB 85.00 BA-NQ open interest= 5430 current ask $2.75

Picked on December 04 at $ 91.43 *triggered/gap down
Change since picked: - 3.01
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.0 million

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Garmin - GRMN - close: 104.04 chg: -1.02 stop: 112.55

We also have a new bearish entry point for GRMN. The stock rallied to $107.26 and then reversed back into the red. This is the sort of failed rally we suggested readers use to buy puts. Remember, this is an aggressive, higher-risk play because the stock can be so volatile and there is still a lot of bullish expectations out there for GRMN's Christmas season. We have two targets. Our first target is the $96.00-95.00 zone. Our second target is the $91.00-90.00 zone.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the January puts. FYI: Double check your option symbols with your broker. We got these from the CBOE but normally a January 95 put would be -MS and the January 90 put would be -MR.

BUY PUT JAN 105 RZJ-MA open interest=4714 current ask $7.80
BUY PUT JAN 100 RZJ-MT open interest=6954 current ask $5.50
BUY PUT JAN 95 GQR-MC open interest=4395 current ask $3.80
BUY PUT JAN 90 GQR-MA open interest=5298 current ask $2.45

Picked on December 11 at $104.78
Change since picked: - 0.74
Earnings Date 02/14/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.2 million

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Sears Holding - SHLD - cls: 105.24 chg: -4.10 stop: 117.55

SHLD is starting to see some follow through on last week's bearish reversal pattern. The stock broke down under short-term support near $107.50 and closed near its lows for the session on Friday. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. A failed rally under $110 could be used as a new entry point for puts. We have two targets. Our first target is the $100.50-100.00 range. Our second more-aggressive target is the $92.50-90.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $78 target.

Suggested Options:
If SHLD provides a new entry point we would suggest the January puts.

Picked on December 11 at $110.28
Change since picked: - 5.04
Earnings Date 10/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.3 million

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Shire Plc - SHPGY - close: 67.98 change: +0.97 stop: 73.51

We cautioned readers to expect an oversold bounce on Friday and SHPGY delivered. At this time our bias is still bearish but the stock could try and "fill the gap" from last Thursday. A failed rally near $70.00 would be our preferred entry point to buy puts again. Our initial target is the $65.25-65.00 range although we're considering a more aggressive target in the $62-60 region. FYI: Any time we play a biotech or even a drug stock we're dealing with a higher-risk situation. We are at risk that some FDA decision or some clinical trial news could send the stock gapping one direction or the other.

Suggested Options:
If SHPGY provides a new bearish entry point we would suggest the January puts.

Picked on December 13 at $ 68.07 *triggered/gap down entry
Change since picked: - 0.09
Earnings Date 02/00/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 956 thousand
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

Excel Maritime - EXM - close: 48.20 change: -2.25 stop: 46.45

EXM has not performed as we expected it to. There was no follow through on the bounce a few days ago and we are seeing another pattern of lower highs develop. We did label this as an aggressive, higher risk play but we're going to abandon ship now and cut our losses early. Another bounce near $40 or its rising 200-dma might be a potential bullish entry point.

Picked on December 09 at $ 50.16
Change since picked: - 1.96
Earnings Date 03/13/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million

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JA Solar - JASO - close: 69.85 change: +6.83 stop: 56.25

Target exceeded (again)! Some of the solar energy stocks continue to buck the trend and JASO soared on Friday. Boosting the shares was news that one analyst raised their price target on JASO to $100. JASO gapped open at $65.94 and then sprinted to an intraday high of $71.95 before paring its gains and closing with a 10% rally. Our second, more aggressive target was the $69.00-70.00 range.

Picked on December 03 at $ 56.25 *triggered
Change since picked: +13.60
Earnings Date 03/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million

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Nucor - NUE - close: 59.93 change: -0.83 stop: 56.75

We are giving up on NUE. The stock continues to find short-term support near $59.00 and should have additional support near $57.50 but given the bearish reversal in the major averages this week we're suggesting an early exit in NUE. Nimble traders may want to watch for a decline under $57.50 as a bearish entry point.

Picked on December 06 at $ 60.15 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.22
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.6 million

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Research In Motion - RIMM - cls: 105.98 chg: +1.68 stop: 96.75

All we needed was another 29 cents. Our target on RIMM was the $109.50-110.00 range. Shares rallied to an intraday high of $109.21 before paring its gains. This looks like a potential bearish reversal under resistance near $110. More aggressive traders could keep the play open. RIMM is due to report earnings this week on December 20th (Thursday) and it's anyone's guess if shares will rally into earnings, get stuck trading sideways, or move lower with the markets. I'm suggesting readers exit early before seeing any potential gains evaporate.

Picked on December 11 at $100.00 *triggered
Change since picked: + 5.98
Earnings Date 12/20/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 32.2 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

Lehman Brothers - LEH - close: 62.24 chg: +0.87 stop: n/a

We are hitting the eject button on the LEH strangle. Our plan was to capture any post-earnings volatility following the company's earnings report on Thursday morning. There was no volatility and with option expiration next week shares will probably keep trading sideways in the $58-66 range.

Picked on December 11 at $ 61.14
Change since picked: + 1.10
Earnings Date 12/13/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.3 million
 

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