United States Cellular - USM - cls: 72.46 change: +1.36 stop: 67.89
USM is looking a lot better today than it was yesterday afternoon. Shares added 1.9% and look poised to rally toward the $75-77 zone although there is potential resistance at the 10-dma near $73.60. Our target is the $74.50-75.00 range. More aggressive traders could aim higher.
Picked on January 25 at $ 71.00 *triggered
United States Oil Fund - USO - cls: 72.98 chg: +0.63 stop: 68.59
Oil continues to inch higher. The USO rose 0.8% and is challenging technical resistance at its 50-dma near $73. Looking at the daily chart it definitely seems like the USO is poised to rally toward $77.50 but we're going to stick to our target. Our short-term target is the $74.50-75.00 range. More aggressive traders could easily aim for the $77.50-79.00 region.
Picked on January 24 at $ 70.93
Ambac Fincl. - ABK - cls: 12.13 change: +1.80 stop: n/a
ABK produced a nice pop today. The stock rallied 16% on hopes that a bailout plan for the bond insurers does appear. However, this seems a little futile. The rating agencies are on the verge of downgrading ABK and MBI and when they do the stocks and financials in general will probably be hit hard. The pop today was powered by a request to delay any downgrade while they work on a plan. Of course if you delayed the downgrade wouldn't that undermine your integrity as a rating agency? At this point we remain bearish and believe ABK will eventually crash lower. We would still consider new put positions. Our suggestion was for the May puts. We are labeling this a speculative, higher-risk, lottery-ticket style of play. Basically we'll either win big or lose the entire bet. We will have to play it by ear when it comes to exiting but we're looking for a decline to $5.00 or less.
Picked on January 27 at $ 11.54
Hartford Fin. - HIG - close: 79.42 chg: +1.26 stop: 81.01
At this point we're wishing we had waited two days so we could open put positions here with HIG just under resistance at $80.00. Look for a failed rally at $80 as a new bearish entry point to buy puts. Our short-term target is the $70.50-70.00 zone.
Picked on January 27 at $ 75.13
Harley-Davidson - HOG - cls: 39.68 chg: +0.55 stop: 42.51
HOG continues to float higher thanks to the broader market. A failed rally here or under $42 could be used as a new entry point for puts. Wait for a failed rally to show up before jumping in with puts. We have two targets. Our first target is the $35.25-35.00 range. Our second, more aggressive target is the $32.50-30.00 zone.
Picked on January 27 at $ 37.96
MBIA Inc. - MBI - close: 15.98 change: +1.13 stop: n/a
MBI is another one of the main bond insurers that is on the verge of going under. The stock bounced sharply today after the New York Insurance Department asked the rating agencies to delay any downgrades so they can work on a bailout program. We would still consider buying puts now but a failed rally near $17.00-17.50 would even be better. Readers might consider buying the May $10 put instead of the $7.50 if this happens. We're not listing a stop loss. This is a lottery ticket play. We'll win big or it's going to go bust. This is one of the few times that we will hold over earnings. MBI reports earnings on Thursday morning before the bell. We will have to play it by ear when it comes to exiting but we're looking for a decline to $5.00 or less.
Picked on January 27 at $ 14.20
Millicom - MICC - close: 101.87 change: +1.32 stop: 105.35
MICC also bounced higher thanks to the widespread market strength. Look for a failed rally in the $104-105 zone as a new entry point for puts (or a new decline under $100). Our first target is the $90.50-90.00 range. We are going to list an aggressive target in the $86.00-85.00 zone but readers should plan on taking off most of their position near $90.
Picked on January 27 at $ 99.33
Perrigo Co - PRGO - close: 30.56 change: +0.18 stop: 32.11
The rebound in PRGO looks like it's already running out of gas. We're not suggesting new puts until we see a failed rally at $32 or a new relative low under $29.70. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 zone. The P&F chart has turned bearish with a $23 target.
Picked on January 28 at $ 29.85 *triggered
Polo Ralph Lauren - RL - cls: 61.54 chg: +1.54 stop: 63.75
RL continues to bounce and is nearing resistance at its 50-dma and trendline of lower highs. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward the 50-dma. Wait for the bounce to roll over before considering new puts. We're listing two targets. Our first target is the $55.50-55.00 range. Our second, more aggressive target is the $52.00-50.00 zone.
Picked on January 27 at $ 59.19
Teleflex - TFX - close: 58.07 change: +1.76 stop: 58.51
TFX produced a pretty good bounce today. What worries us now is the close over short-term resistance at $58.00. Currently we are expecting a sell the news reaction to the Fed's decision on interest rates tomorrow. Otherwise we would be considering an early exit right here to cut our losses. More aggressive traders may want to raise their stops above the 50-dma or the $60.00 mark. We're listing two targets. Our first target is the $52.75-52.50 zone. Our second target is the $50.50-50.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $43 target.
Picked on January 27 at $ 56.60