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Call Updates

United States Oil Fund - USO - cls: 73.08 chg: +0.10 stop: 68.59

Oil did not move much today but the short-term trend remains bullish. We do not see any changes from our previous comments. Looking at the daily chart it definitely seems like the USO is poised to rally toward $77.50 but we're going to stick to our target. Our short-term target is the $74.50-75.00 range. More aggressive traders could easily aim for the $77.50-79.00 region.

Picked on January 24 at $ 70.93
Change since picked: + 2.15
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.2 million
 

Put Updates

Ambac Fincl. - ABK - cls: 10.85 change: -2.08 stop: n/a

ABK erased yesterday's 16% gain with a 16% loss today. Most of the weakness came in the last hour of trading as investors panicked over news that a rating downgrade for the bond insurers was imminent. We don't see any changes from our previous comments and remain bearish on the stock. Our suggestion was for the May puts. We are labeling this a speculative, higher-risk, lottery-ticket style of play. Basically we'll either win big or lose the entire bet. We will have to play it by ear when it comes to exiting but we're looking for a decline to $5.00 or less.

Picked on January 27 at $ 11.54
Change since picked: - 0.69
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 10.9 million

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Harley-Davidson - HOG - cls: 38.51 chg: -1.17 stop: 42.51

Entry point alert! Even with the market's post-fed rally shares of HOG couldn't make it past resistance near $40.00. Today's move looks like a new bearish entry point for puts. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $40.00. We have two targets. Our first target is the $35.25-35.00 range. Our second, more aggressive target is the $32.50-30.00 zone.

Picked on January 27 at $ 37.96
Change since picked: + 0.55
Earnings Date 01/25/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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MBIA Inc. - MBI - close: 13.96 change: -2.02 stop: n/a

News that a downgrade for the "bond insurers" sent MBI and ABK sharply lower. The headlines failed to specific which insurers might be downgraded by name but MBI is one of the key insurers that is barely holding its head above water. We don't see any changes from our previous comments and believe this company (and stock) is going down. Don't forget - tomorrow is a big day for MBI when the company reports earnings before the bell. We're not listing a stop loss. This is a lottery ticket play. We'll win big or it's going to go bust. This is one of the few times that we will hold over earnings. MBI reports earnings on Thursday morning before the bell. We will have to play it by ear when it comes to exiting but we're looking for a decline to $5.00 or less.

Picked on January 27 at $ 14.20
Change since picked: - 0.24
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 15.2 million

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Perrigo Co - PRGO - close: 30.80 change: +0.24 stop: 32.11

We do not see any change from our previous comments on PRGO. The rebound in PRGO looks like it's already running out of gas. We're not suggesting new puts until we see a failed rally at $32 or a new relative low under $29.70. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 zone. The P&F chart has turned bearish with a $23 target.

Picked on January 28 at $ 29.85 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.95
Earnings Date 02/05/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million

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Polo Ralph Lauren - RL - cls: 60.73 chg: -0.81 stop: 63.75

The afternoon rally in RL was a bit anemic and shares have now failed near their 50-dma. This looks like a new bearish entry point to buy puts but more conservative traders might want to wait for a breakdown under $60.00 first. We're listing two targets. Our first target is the $55.50-55.00 range. Our second, more aggressive target is the $52.00-50.00 zone.

Picked on January 27 at $ 59.19
Change since picked: + 1.54
Earnings Date 02/06/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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DJIA 1/100 Index - $DJX - cls: 124.43 chg: -0.37 stop: n/a

The market's initial reaction to the fed news has been reversed by renewed concerns over downgrades for the bond insurers. Overall today's session is a bearish reversal. We are not suggesting new strangle positions at this time but if you're really quick and the market doesn't gap down you might be able to open a new position before the market moves too much tomorrow morning. The options we suggested were the February $127 calls (DJW-BW) and the February $122 puts (DJW-NR). Our estimated cost was $3.36. We want to sell if either option hits $4.85 or more.

Picked on January 29 at $124.80
Change since picked: - 0.37
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = million
 

Dropped Calls

United States Cellular - USM - cls: 70.15 change: -2.31 stop: 67.89

We are suggesting readers hit the eject button in USM and exit now. The stock under performed the market all day and failed to participate in the afternoon fed-inspired bounce. We suggest you exit any bullish positions and consider buying puts on a new relative low under $68.00.

Picked on January 25 at $ 71.00 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.85
Earnings Date 02/26/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 153 thousand
 

Dropped Puts

Hartford Fin. - HIG - close: 78.55 chg: -0.87 stop: 81.01

The post-fed rally sent shares of HIG past resistance at $80-81 and the stock hit our stop loss at $81.01. This play is closed but the action today looks bearish given the late day reversal lower. We're reloading this put play on HIG so look for it in the new plays section.

Picked on January 27 at $ 75.13
Change since picked: + 3.42
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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Millicom - MICC - close: 104.01 change: +2.14 stop: 105.35

MICC spiked toward $108 this afternoon following the fed news. This breakout over resistance hit our stop loss at $105.35 closing the play. We are not convinced the stock is headed higher and would keep an eye on it for another breakdown below $100-99.

Picked on January 27 at $ 99.33
Change since picked: + 4.68
Earnings Date 02/13/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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Teleflex - TFX - close: 57.65 change: -0.42 stop: 58.51

The afternoon spike on the fed news was too much and TFX briefly traded to $59.18 before reversing lower. The stock hit our stop loss at $58.51 closing the play. However, the move this afternoon looks like another entry point for shorts so we're going to try again. Look for a new put play on TFX in tonight's new plays section.

Picked on January 27 at $ 56.60
Change since picked: + 1.05
Earnings Date 02/28/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 390 thousand
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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