Ingersoll Rand - IR - close: 43.08 change: +1.86 stop: 39.74
IR bounced sharply higher, along with the rest of the market, and the stock ended Tuesday's session with a 4.5% gain. We remain bullish on the stock but repeat our comments from this weekend. More conservative traders might want to wait for a new relative high over $43.50 to open position. There is potential resistance near $45.00 and its 100-dma but our target is the 47.00-47.50 zone.
Picked on March 09 at $ 42.87
Yahoo! Inc. - YHOO - close: 29.00 change: +0.49 stop: n/a
YHOO's suitor MSFT surged more than 4% today but YHOO only managed a 1.6% gain. We are still waiting for a revised bid higher by MSFT. We need to see a higher bid from MSFT before March expiration (unless you've bought the April calls). This remains a very risky, aggressive bet. Our suggested calls were the March $30 or March $32.50 strikes. If you want to speculate now we would choose the April strikes. MSFT's current bid is $31 a share and the street expects that they will raise their bid into the $33-35 zone.
Picked on February 17 at $ 29.66
Ambac Fincl. - ABK - cls: 7.73 change: +0.44 stop: n/a
ABK produced a 6% gain today. That was enough to out perform the S&P 500 but the overall trend continues to look weak. Volume behind today's move was above average but nothing noteworthy. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. This remains a very speculative play. We will definitely hold over the April earnings if we get the chance. Previously we had been suggesting the May out-of-the money puts ($5.00 and $2.50 strikes) and an optional speculative out-of-the money March ($20) call as a hedge should a bailout plan come to pass.
Picked on January 27 at $ 11.54
Cytec Ind. - CYT - close: 55.50 chg: +1.56 stop: 58.15
Shares of CYT gapped open higher at $55.08 but the rally ran into resistance near the descending 50-dma. This is a good sign for the bears. The market's rally may not be over yet but CYT has plenty of resistance to work through. Our readers have a decision to make. You can either tighten your stop to something like $56.05, reduce your risk, and cut your losses early. Or keep a wide stop and try to weather the bounce if this ends up being just a bounce. That's the challenge. We have an aggressive, higher-risk stop loss at $58.15. Conservative traders should seriously consider a lower stop. The $50.00 level looks like nearest support so we are targeting a drop into the $50.25-50.00 zone.
Picked on March 09 at $ 54.72
Express Scripts - ESRX - cls: 58.61 chg: -0.17 stop: 63.55
The earnings warning from Wellpoint (WLP) last night pulled shares of ESRX lower. ESRX spiked lower at the open and dipped to $56.36 before rebounding thanks to the market's strength. This move might be interpreted as a short-term bullish reversal. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward the 10-dma near $61.00. We would wait for signs of a failed rally before considering new bearish positions. We have listed two targets. Our first, short-term target is the $55.50-55.00 zone. Our second, more aggressive target is the $51.50-50.00 zone. Currently the P&F chart is bearish with a $54 target. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at 3.8% of the 251 million-share float, which is about 3.4 days worth of short interest.
Picked on March 09 at $ 58.51
FedEx - FDX - close: 88.16 change: +3.19 stop: 90.05
The bounce in FDX seems a little overdone considering a spike in oil futures to $109 a barrel. FDX's rebound back above resistance near $86.00 and $88.00 is definitely a warning for the bears. More conservative traders may just want to cut your losses early and wait to see if the stock rolls over again under its longer-term trend of lower highs. FYI: The most recent data lists short interest at 3% of the 289 million-share float.
Picked on March 10 at $ 85.95 *triggered
Harley-Davidson - HOG - close: 36.67 chg: +1.99 stop: 40.26
Short covering in HOG lifted the stock to a 5.7% gain. Yet volume failed to hit normal levels. Watch for HOG to run into resistance in the $37-39 zone. A failed rally there can be used as a new entry point for shorts. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 zone although it wouldn't surprise me to see a drop closer to $25. The P&F chart is bearish with a bearish triangle breakdown sell signal. FYI: The most recent data lists short interest at 9.6% of the 236 million-share float. That is an above average amount of short interest and raises our risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on March 10 at $ 34.69 *triggered
MBIA Inc. - MBI - close: 12.14 change: +1.37 stop: n/a
As the market's rally just continued to steam higher this afternoon the shorts began to cover in MBI and the stock posted a 12% gain. We're not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. We had been suggesting the out-of-the-money May puts (7.50, 5.00 and 2.50 strikes) and an optional March $22.50 (or $20.00) call as a hedge in case a bailout plan for the bond insurers does get done. We will definitely hold over the April earnings if we get the chance.
Picked on January 27 at $ 14.20
3M Co. - MMM - close: 77.95 change: +2.47 stop: 80.25
As a DJIA component it would be tough for MMM to not trade higher today. Shares added 3.2% and reversed most of the last couple of sessions. The larger trend is still bearish. Look for a failed rally near $80.00 or its 50-dma as a new entry point for puts. We have set two targets. The first target is the $72.25 level, just above the January 2008 lows. Our second target is the $68.00 level, which should be closer to the bottom edge of MMM's bearish channel. The P&F chart is currently bearish with a $62 target. FYI: The most recent data lists short interest at just 1.5% of the 707 million-share float.
Picked on March 09 at $ 76.51
NII Holdings - NIHD - close: 35.07 change: +0.67 stop: 40.05
NIHD sank to a new relative low of $32.98 midday before finally reversing and turning green. This does look like a short-term bottom. The question now is where will NIHD run into resistance. The easy areas to look for resistance would be $36, $38, and $40. We would also keep an eye on the 10-dma near $38.50. More conservative traders may just want to exit completely at this time. We would not suggest new bearish plays at this time. NIHD has already surpassed our initial target in the $35.50-35.00 zone. Our aggressive target was the $31.00-30.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $19 target. FYI: The latest data lists short interest at 3.8% of the 171.7 million-share float, which is only about 1.5 days worth of short interest.
Picked on March 04 at $ 38.95 *triggered
Everest Re Group - RE - close: 95.03 chg: +1.89 stop: 98.26
RE almost seemed like a reluctant participant in today's widespread rally. Shares did manage to close over potential resistance at $95.00 but not over its 10-dma. We would not be surprised to see RE challenge short-term resistance near $96 or $97 soon. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. The stock has already hit our first target at $93.50. The intraday low on Friday was $92.50. Our second, more aggressive target is the $91.00-90.00 zone. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish with a $74 target.
Picked on February 28 at $ 97.93 /1st target surpassed 92.66
Sears Holding - SHLD - close: 93.30 change: +2.30 stop: 100.51
SHLD was not immune to the market's contagious rally on Tuesday. We would expect the rebound to continue tomorrow. Watch the $95.00 level to be short-term overhead resistance. If you're feeling concerned then consider a stop loss closer to $95.00. Our target is the $85.50-85.00 zone. There are a lot of investors who believe SHLD is going lower. The most recent data puts short interest at more than 19% of the 65 million-share float. That is almost 7 days worth of short interest. Naturally that raises our risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on March 06 at $ 94.00 *triggered
Wynn Resorts - WYNN - close: 96.45 chg: +5.04 stop: 100.51
Today's bounce in WYNN seems a bit overdone. It looks like shorts started to panic when the stock traded through what should have been stronger resistance at $95.00 this afternoon. Look for additional overhead resistance at the 10-dma near $98 and again near $100. Wait for the rally to fail before considering new puts. The P&F chart is bearish with a $64 target.
Picked on March 04 at $ 94.27 *gap down
iShares Transportation - IYT - cls: 82.44 chg: +3.36 stop: 82.55
Personally the bounce in the IYT seems overdone if you consider that crude oil hit $109 a barrel today. However, the market didn't ask my opinion. The IYT bounced sharply adding more than 4% albeit on below average volume. The rally back above resistance near $80.00 and its 50-dma is a bad sign for the bears. The stock has not yet hit our stop loss at $82.55 but it's almost a guarantee it will tomorrow. We're going to exit early now and just look for a new entry point on a failed rally near its 200-dma or maybe a new decline under $80.00.
Picked on March 10 at $ 79.25 *triggered
Praxair Inc. - PX - close: 83.26 chg: +5.52 stop: 81.05
PX delivered a one-two punch to the bears today. Not only did PX benefit from the market's huge rally but the company announced it had won a big contract in China. PX said it will be the sole supplier of oxygen to three wastewater treatment plants in China during the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing (source:AP). PX gapped open at $79.33 and quickly rallied through our suggested top at $81.05. PX didn't stop until it had cleared the 50-dma.
Picked on March 10 at $ 77.90 *triggered /stopped 81.05