Goldman Sachs - GS - close: 163.01 chg: -0.06 stop: 154.99
Our bullish play on GS is not off to a strong start. Shares rallied to $170.06 and then very promptly reversed course. You could argue that the lack of any real profit taking from Tuesday's bounce is bullish. I would argue that today's move is a very clear and very bearish failed rally pattern at round-number resistance near $170. This definitely sours my outlook on GS. Seriously, if you opened positions this morning I would consider cutting them or raising my stop loss. If you want to play this stock then wait for another dip near $160 or even $157.50 and then consider buying the bounce. I would still not hold a directional call position over earnings but that's me. This is going to be a short-term play. GS is due to report earnings on Tuesday, March 18th before the opening bell. We do not want to hold over earnings. Our short-term target is the $178.00-180.00 zone.
Picked on March 11 at $163.07
Ingersoll Rand - IR - close: 43.72 change: +0.64 stop: 39.74
The positive earnings news from CAT probably had a hand in lifting shares of IR. IR managed to breakout from its recent consolidation and over resistance near $43.50. The rally did fade a bit. Shares could bounce at $43.50 but I would expect a move closer to the $43.00-42.50 zone. There is potential resistance near $45.00 and its 100-dma but our target is the 47.00-47.50 zone.
Picked on March 09 at $ 42.87
Research In Motion - RIMM - cls: 101.39 chg: +0.65 stop: 94.49
A follow through gain on top of yesterday's performance is definitely bullish for RIMM. However, if you are looking for a new entry point consider waiting for a dip near $100 or even a dip near $98.00 as an entry. We are suggesting a wide, aggressive stop under Tuesday's low. More conservative traders may want to stick their stop closer to $97.00 or $97.50. Our short-term target is the $110.00-112.00 zone.
Picked on March 11 at $100.74
Yahoo! Inc. - YHOO - close: 28.45 change: -0.55 stop: n/a
We do not see anything new regarding our YHOO play. We are still waiting for a revised bid higher by MSFT. We need to see a higher bid from MSFT before March expiration (unless you've bought the April calls). This remains a very risky, aggressive bet. Our suggested calls were the March $30 or March $32.50 strikes. If you want to speculate now we would choose the April strikes. MSFT's current bid is $31 a share and the street expects that they will raise their bid into the $33-35 zone.
Picked on February 17 at $ 29.66
Ambac Fincl. - ABK - cls: 6.84 change: -0.89 stop: n/a
ABK sank another 11.5% today. Investors remain wary and news that S&P had cut insurer CIFG's rating from AAA to A+ may have reinforced investor fears. However, it's worth noting that CIFG was downgraded not for financial strength but merely a weak outlook for 2008. An Associated Press article carried the story and mentioned that this downgraded followed similar ones from Moody's and Fitch. We are not suggesting new ABK positions at this time. This remains a very speculative play. We will definitely hold over the April earnings if we get the chance. Previously we had been suggesting the May out-of-the money puts ($5.00 and $2.50 strikes) and an optional speculative out-of-the money March ($20) call as a hedge should a bailout plan come to pass.
Picked on January 27 at $ 11.54
Cytec Ind. - CYT - close: 55.51 chg: +0.01 stop: 58.15
Hmm.... the rebound in CYT ran straight to $56.00 and then hit a wall today. This may prove to be a new entry point to buy puts. However, we'd probably wait for a new decline under $55.00 before considering new positions. Our readers have a decision to make. You can either tighten your stop to something like $56.05, reduce your risk, and cut your losses early. Or keep a wide stop and try to weather the bounce if this ends up being just a bounce. That's the challenge. We have an aggressive, higher-risk stop loss at $58.15. Conservative traders should seriously consider a lower stop. The $50.00 level looks like nearest support so we are targeting a drop into the $50.25-50.00 zone.
Picked on March 09 at $ 54.72
Express Scripts - ESRX - cls: 56.88 chg: -1.73 stop: 63.55
Continued weakness in healthcare, thanks to news from HUM this time, helped pull ESRX to another loss. We remain bearish on ESRX. We have listed two targets. Our first, short-term target is the $55.50-55.00 zone. Our second, more aggressive target is the $51.50-50.00 zone. Currently the P&F chart is bearish with a $54 target. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at 3.8% of the 251 million-share float, which is about 3.4 days worth of short interest.
Picked on March 09 at $ 58.51
FedEx - FDX - close: 87.06 change: -1.10 stop: 90.05
A $110 price tag on oil should be weighing heavily on the transports. Today's action may prove to be a new entry point for puts. Our target is the $80.50-80.00 zone. FYI: The most recent data lists short interest at 3% of the 289 million-share float.
Picked on March 10 at $ 85.95 *triggered
Harley-Davidson - HOG - close: 36.29 chg: -0.38 stop: 40.26
Our original comments and yesterday's comments on HOG suggested an alternative entry on a failed rally and today's move looks great - if you're bearish. HOG failed near its March 5th high and near $37.50. This is a new entry point for puts. We are leaving our stop loss at $40.26 but conservative traders could tighten their stop toward $38.00 or even $37.50. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 zone although it wouldn't surprise me to see a drop closer to $25. The P&F chart is bearish with a bearish triangle breakdown sell signal. FYI: The most recent data lists short interest at 9.6% of the 236 million-share float. That is an above average amount of short interest and raises our risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on March 10 at $ 34.69 *triggered
MBIA Inc. - MBI - close: 11.72 change: -0.42 stop: n/a
MBI slipped another 3.4%. Investor confidence is still scarce around the bond insurers and today's news about CIFG doesn't help. We're not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. We had been suggesting the out-of-the-money May puts (7.50, 5.00 and 2.50 strikes) and an optional March $22.50 (or $20.00) call as a hedge in case a bailout plan for the bond insurers does get done. We will definitely hold over the April earnings if we get the chance.
Picked on January 27 at $ 14.20
3M Co. - MMM - close: 78.42 change: +0.47 stop: 80.25
Entry point alert! MMM has provided a perfect entry point for the bears. The stock has produced a failed rally near resistance at $80.00, near resistance at its 50-dma and near resistance at its bearish channel. We have set two targets. The first target is the $72.25 level, just above the January 2008 lows. Our second target is the $68.00 level, which should be closer to the bottom edge of MMM's bearish channel. The P&F chart is currently bearish with a $62 target. FYI: The most recent data lists short interest at just 1.5% of the 707 million-share float.
Picked on March 09 at $ 76.51
The overall trend in NIHD remains bearish but short-term it almost looks like the stock is poised to bounce. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. NIHD has already surpassed our initial target in the $35.50-35.00 zone. Our aggressive target was the $31.00-30.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $19 target. FYI: The latest data lists short interest at 3.8% of the 171.7 million-share float, which is only about 1.5 days worth of short interest.
Picked on March 04 at $ 38.95 *triggered
Everest Re Group - RE - close: 93.48 chg: -1.55 stop: 98.26
The rebound in RE has already failed. Shares traded just above their 10-dma and promptly reversed. The stock is once again trading under our early target at $93.50. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our second, more aggressive target is the $91.00-90.00 zone. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish with a $74 target.
Picked on February 28 at $ 97.93 /1st target surpassed 92.66
Sears Holding - SHLD - close: 93.63 change: +0.33 stop: 100.51
SHLD bounced back toward $96.00 and then faded lower again. This looks like another entry point for puts. Our target is the $85.50-85.00 zone. There are a lot of investors who believe SHLD is going lower. The most recent data puts short interest at more than 19% of the 65 million-share float. That is almost 7 days worth of short interest. Naturally that raises our risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on March 06 at $ 94.00 *triggered
Wynn Resorts - WYNN - close: 97.05 chg: +0.60 stop: 100.51
The move today looks like a continuation of Tuesday's short squeeze. However, the stock did pare its gains. Unfortunately, it looks like we're at risk of being stopped out on an intraday spike above $100. We would hesitate to open new positions at the moment. Our target was the $86.50-85.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $64 target.
Picked on March 04 at $ 94.27 *gap down