Goldman Sachs - GS - close: 165.44 chg: +2.43 stop: 154.99
Thursday proved to be a volatile day for shares of GS. Additional weakness in BSC continues to weigh heavily on the sector plus we heard comments about one firm lowering their estimate on GS, who reports next week. Shares of GS gapped open lower at $160.44 and dipped to $156.76 before bouncing back and closing in the green. It continues to look like GS is trying to put in a bottom but we are running out of time because we don't want to hold over the earnings report! GS is due to report earnings on Tuesday, March 18th before the opening bell. We do not want to hold over earnings so we plan to exit on Monday at the closing bell. Our short-term target is the $178.00-180.00 zone.
Picked on March 11 at $163.07
Ingersoll Rand - IR - close: 44.28 change: +0.56 stop: 39.74
Bulls bought the dip in IR near $42 and its rising 10-dma. Unfortunately, volume was not very impressive. The short-term trend continues to look positive. IR is nearing potential resistance at its 100-dma and the $45.00 zone. Our target is the 47.00-47.50 zone.
Picked on March 09 at $ 42.87
Research In Motion - RIMM - cls: 105.65 chg: +4.26 stop: 94.49
RIMM turned in a bullish session. It didn't start out that way. The stock actually gapped open lower at $100.05 and dipped to $98.32 before bouncing back. The rebound is impressive. Shares have cleared short-term potential resistance at $105 and its 100-dma. More conservative traders will want to seriously consider tightening their stop loss toward $97-98. Our short-term target is the $110.00-112.00 zone.
Picked on March 11 at $100.74
Yahoo! Inc. - YHOO - close: 27.50 change: -0.95 stop: n/a
YHOO really under performed the market today. Instead of rebounding higher with the market this afternoon YHOO slipped to session lows. Pressuring the stock price was a rumor going around that a hedge fund was trying to unload a huge chunk of YHOO. We don't know why they wanted to sell. Considering all the hedge fund redemptions it's possible they just needed the cash. Again, this was just a rumor. We need to see a higher bid from MSFT before March expiration (unless you've bought the April calls). This remains a very risky, aggressive bet. Our suggested calls were the March $30 or March $32.50 strikes. If you want to speculate now we would choose the April strikes. MSFT's current bid is $31 a share and the street expects that they will raise their bid into the $33-35 zone.
Picked on February 17 at $ 29.66
Ambac Fincl. - ABK - cls: 6.63 change: -0.23 stop: n/a
ABK continues to sink. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. We are not suggesting new ABK positions at this time. This remains a very speculative play. We will definitely hold over the April earnings if we get the chance. Previously we had been suggesting the May out-of-the money puts ($5.00 and $2.50 strikes) and an optional speculative out-of-the money March ($20) call as a hedge should a bailout plan come to pass.
Picked on January 27 at $ 11.54
Cytec Ind. - CYT - close: 55.50 chg: -0.01 stop: 57.15 *new*
That's not a typo. Yesterday CYT was up one cent. Today it's down one cent. Yet the stock has been anything but mild. Shares are bouncing around the $54-56 zone. Early morning weakness retested the $54 level but the rebound never quite made it to $56. CYT is still trying with a bearish trend of lower highs. We are going to tighten our stop loss and try to reduce our risk. We're moving the stop to $57.15. More conservative traders might want to move their stop closer to the $56 region. The $50.00 level looks like nearest support so we are targeting a drop into the $50.25-50.00 zone.
Picked on March 09 at $ 54.72
Express Scripts - ESRX - cls: 57.89 chg: +1.01 stop: 63.55
The extremely oversold healthcare sector managed a dead-cat bounce today. ESRX participated with a 1.7% gain. Look for a failed rally here or in the $59-60 zone as a new entry point for puts. We have listed two targets. Our first, short-term target is the $55.50-55.00 zone. Our second, more aggressive target is the $51.50-50.00 zone. Currently the P&F chart is bearish with a $54 target. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at 3.8% of the 251 million-share float, which is about 3.4 days worth of short interest.
Picked on March 09 at $ 58.51
FedEx - FDX - close: 87.07 change: +0.01 stop: 90.05
Strength in the transports doesn't make any sense here. Oil traded over $110. Plus, last night, UPS said that they saw volume falling across their business in February. UPS and FDX should have been down more sharply. The trend continues to look bearish but there hasn't been a lot of follow through lower yet. Our target is the $80.50-80.00 zone. FYI: The most recent data lists short interest at 3% of the 289 million-share float.
Picked on March 10 at $ 85.95 *triggered
Harley-Davidson - HOG - close: 36.80 chg: +0.51 stop: 40.26
Yesterday's failed rally at $37.50 looked like another sell signal but someone bought the dip at $35.00 today. This probably has a number of bears nervous about a short squeeze. Our more conservative traders may want to tighten their stop loss closer to the 50-dma (38.77) or the $38.00 level. We do have a very wide and aggressive stop at $40.26. Wait for the bounce to fade before considering new puts. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 zone although it wouldn't surprise me to see a drop closer to $25. The P&F chart is bearish with a bearish triangle breakdown sell signal. FYI: The most recent data lists short interest at 9.6% of the 236 million-share float. That is an above average amount of short interest and raises our risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on March 10 at $ 34.69 *triggered
MBIA Inc. - MBI - close: 11.57 change: -0.02 stop: n/a
There is nothing new to report here. MBI is still under performing the market and the financials. We're not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. We had been suggesting the out-of-the-money May puts (7.50, 5.00 and 2.50 strikes) and an optional March $22.50 (or $20.00) call as a hedge in case a bailout plan for the bond insurers does get done. We will definitely hold over the April earnings if we get the chance.
Picked on January 27 at $ 14.20
3M Co. - MMM - close: 79.08 change: +0.66 stop: 80.25
Just in case you missed it yesterday MMM is providing another entry point to buy puts near resistance at $80.00. Unfortunately, today's entry point looks a little more aggressive considering the bullish tone in today's market and MMM. The trend in MMM remains bearish and until it breaks $80 we're sticking with it. We have set two targets. The first target is the $72.25 level, just above the January 2008 lows. Our second target is the $68.00 level, which should be closer to the bottom edge of MMM's bearish channel. The P&F chart is currently bearish with a $62 target. FYI: The most recent data lists short interest at just 1.5% of the 707 million-share float.
Picked on March 09 at $ 76.51
NII Holdings - NIHD - close: 34.10 change: -0.55 stop: 40.05
NIHD under performed the market again with a 1.5% loss. The lack of participation in the rebound today is a good sign for the bears. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. NIHD has already surpassed our initial target in the $35.50-35.00 zone. Our aggressive target was the $31.00-30.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $19 target. FYI: The latest data lists short interest at 3.8% of the 171.7 million-share float, which is only about 1.5 days worth of short interest.
Picked on March 04 at $ 38.95 *triggered
Everest Re Group - RE - close: 93.37 chg: -0.11 stop: 98.26
Another round of weakness in AIG depressed the insurance stocks. RE managed to recoup most of its losses but the trend is still bearish. The stock is still trading under our early target at $93.50. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our second, more aggressive target is the $91.00-90.00 zone. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish with a $74 target.
Picked on February 28 at $ 97.93 /1st target surpassed 92.66
Sears Holding - SHLD - close: 94.58 change: +0.95 stop: 100.51
SHLD has bounced back toward resistance in the $95-96 zone. Technically today's move is a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern but it needs to see some confirmation. The trend in SHLD is still very bearish. If you're feeling cautious you could tighten your stop toward $96.00 and consider re-entering bearish plays if SHLD sees another failed rally near $100. Our target is the $85.50-85.00 zone. There are a lot of investors who believe SHLD is going lower. The most recent data puts short interest at more than 19% of the 65 million-share float. That is almost 7 days worth of short interest. Naturally that raises our risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on March 06 at $ 94.00 *triggered
Wynn Resorts - WYNN - close: 97.26 chg: +0.21 stop: 100.51
WYNN is trying very hard to put in a short-term bottom here. The action over the last three days could easily spook the bears. At this point we would expect the stock to challenge resistance near $100 soon. If you don't want to risk being stopped out at $100.51, which could happen tomorrow if the inflation data comes in lower than expected, then consider an early exit first thing tomorrow. We're not suggesting new put plays at this time. Our target was the $86.50-85.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $64 target.
Picked on March 04 at $ 94.27 *gap down