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Call Updates

Core Labs - CLB - close: 117.35 chg: -5.05 stop: 117.99

A nervous market on Monday sold the oil service stocks as crude oil futures pulled back sharply in profit taking. The oil service plays shouldn't be that closely tied to the daily swings in oil. Generally high oil prices will continue to mean strong business for the service companies. Today's move in CLB seems overdone. Right now our suggested trigger to buy calls on CLB is at $125.25. However, we are going to be watching for a potential bounce near $115 as an alternative entry point. We'll make a note if we see it. Right now CLB is testing technical support near its 200-dma. There is potential resistance near $130 so we're setting our first target at $129.85-130.00. We do think CLB will breakout past $130 sooner rather than later so we're setting a second target in the $137.50-140.00 zone.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 295 thousand

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Freeport-Mcmoran - FCX - cls: 94.61 chg: -7.00 stop: 98.99

Again, like the drop in CLB, the move in FCX looks like an over reaction. Investors were a little panicky today given the JPM-BSC news. Why this financial services news would affect FCX so much definitely smells like spooked traders looking to take profits anywhere they can. Shares of FCX dropped sharply and is testing support near its 50 and 200-dma. Volume on today's drop in FCX was above average, which is somewhat bearish. Right now our suggested entry point to buy calls on FCX is at $105.51. However, we are going to be keeping an eye on the $90.00 region as a potential alternative entry point if we see one. We have two targets. Our first target is the $109.85-110.00 range. Our second target is the $117.50-120.00 zone.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 13.7 million

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Ingersoll Rand - IR - close: 43.00 change: -0.15 stop: 40.85

IR gapped open lower but traders bought the dip at $41.60 and the stock recouped most of its losses. We remain bullish on IR but cautious on the market in general. We would hesitate to open new bullish positions at this time. Our target is the 47.00-47.50 zone.

Picked on March 09 at $ 42.87
Change since picked: + 0.13
Earnings Date 04/20/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.5 million

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Joy Global - JOYG - close: 66.52 chg: -2.28 stop: 67.45

JOYG also suffered some profit taking today. A dip near its rising 50-dma might be a tempting entry point but right now we're waiting for a new high. We are suggesting that readers buy calls at $72.50. If triggered our target is the $78.00-80.00 zone. Currently the Point & Figure chart is bullish with an $86 target. Now we do want to warn readers that early this month JOYG's CFO quit. No reason was given for his departure. Normally when the CFO resigns it's not a good sign but investors don't appear to be worried and the next earnings date isn't until late May.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/29/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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Potash Corp. - POT - cls: 155.05 chg: -5.41 stop: 149.00

POT was not immune to the market profit taking today. The intraday weakness that pushed shares of MOS under support at $100 pulled shares of POT to a low of $151.35. We remain bullish on POT but readers may want to wait on new entries. Look for another dip near $150 or better a bounce near $150 as an entry point. If POT rises from here then a new move over $159-160 would look like a new entry point. Our target is the $178.00-180.00 zone. We will consider adding a second, more aggressive target as the play progresses. Remember, these stocks can be very volatile and see some huge intraday swings. We have to label this an aggressive, higher-risk play.

Picked on March 14 at $162.75 *triggered
Change since picked: - 7.70
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.5 million

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Research In Motion - RIMM - cls: 98.12 chg: -3.57 stop: 94.49

The NASDAQ was really getting hammered intraday and shares of RIMM dipped to $96.05 before bouncing. The close under $100 is bearish and traders need to be defensive here. Currently RIMM is holding near its 50-dma. We would watch for a new bounce near $95 or a new rise over $100.50 as potential entry points to buy calls. We're going to leave our stop loss at $94.49 for now and see if RIMM can hold in the $95-105 region. Our short-term target is the $110.00-112.00 zone.

Picked on March 11 at $100.74
Change since picked: - 2.62
Earnings Date 04/02/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 25 million

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Yahoo! Inc. - YHOO - close: 25.85 change: -0.86 stop: n/a

YHOO continues to get hammered. Last week's Thursday-Friday decline continued into Monday and YHOO was plunging into the closing bell. Shares have now broken their 50 and 200-dma. There are only three days left for March options and at this point we would expect them to expire worthless. We are not suggesting new positions in April options at this time.

Picked on February 17 at $ 29.66
Change since picked: - 3.81
Earnings Date 04/17/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 54 million
 

Put Updates

Ambac Fincl. - ABK - cls: 5.41 change: -0.81 stop: n/a

The subprime contagion has claimed a high-profile casualty in BSC today. Financials stocks got clobbered. Shares of ABK lost another 13% and closed under the $6.00 level. We are not suggesting new bearish positions in ABK. This remains a very speculative play. We will definitely hold over the April earnings if we get the chance. Previously we had been suggesting the May out-of-the money puts ($5.00 and $2.50 strikes) and an optional speculative out-of-the money March ($20) call as a hedge should a bailout plan come to pass.

Picked on January 27 at $ 11.54
Change since picked: - 6.15
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 10.9 million

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Cytec Ind. - CYT - close: 52.37 chg: -1.95 stop: 57.15

CYT gapped open lower and closed with a 3.5% loss. Volume remained rather stable. Shares continue to look bearish but we're not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders might want to move their stop closer to the $56 region. The $50.00 level looks like nearest support so we are targeting a drop into the $50.25-50.00 zone.

Picked on March 09 at $ 54.72
Change since picked: - 2.35
Earnings Date 04/17/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 601 million

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Express Scripts - ESRX - cls: 56.26 chg: -0.17 stop: 60.55

ESRX produced another failed rally near $58.00 today. Shares continue to look vulnerable. ESRX is nearing our first target in the $55.50-55.00 zone we would still consider new positions. The second target is the $51.50-50.00 range. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments on healthcare. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at 3.8% of the 251 million-share float, which is about 3.4 days worth of short interest.

Picked on March 09 at $ 58.51
Change since picked: - 2.25
Earnings Date 04/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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FedEx - FDX - close: 82.55 change: -2.25 stop: 86.05 *new*

Normally you might think that transports would bounce on a pull back in crude oil but that didn't happen today. FDX gapped open lower and ended the session with a 2.9% loss. We're running out of time. FDX is due to report earnings on Thursday morning, March 20th. We do not want to hold over the report. If FDX doesn't hit our target first we'll plan to exit on Wednesday at the closing bell. Please note we are moving the stop loss to $86.05. Our target is the $80.50-80.00 zone. FYI: The most recent data lists short interest at 3% of the 289 million-share float.

Picked on March 10 at $ 85.95 *triggered
Change since picked: - 3.40
Earnings Date 03/20/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.1 million

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Harley-Davidson - HOG - close: 34.90 chg: -0.51 stop: 38.51 *new*

Shares of HOG slipped to a new multi-year low midday. The action in the shares this afternoon continues to look bearish. We would still consider new put positions. Please note that we are adjusting our stop loss to $38.51, which is a several cents above the descending 50-dma. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 zone although it wouldn't surprise me to see a drop closer to $25. The P&F chart is bearish with a bearish triangle breakdown sell signal. FYI: The most recent data lists short interest at 9.6% of the 236 million-share float. That is an above average amount of short interest and raises our risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on March 10 at $ 34.69 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.21
Earnings Date 04/17/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.1 million

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MBIA Inc. - MBI - close: 10.80 change: -0.14 stop: n/a

MBI performed a lot better than ABK. The stock experienced a sharp bounce in the last hour of trading. Why MBI was bouncing is currently unknown. The overall trend is still bearish and MBI looks poised to breakdown under the $10 level. We're not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. We had been suggesting the out-of-the-money May puts (7.50, 5.00 and 2.50 strikes) and an optional March $22.50 (or $20.00) call as a hedge in case a bailout plan for the bond insurers does get done. We will definitely hold over the April earnings if we get the chance.

Picked on January 27 at $ 14.20
Change since picked: - 3.40
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 15.2 million

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3M Co. - MMM - close: 78.51 change: +0.98 stop: 80.25

MMM displayed a significant amount of relative strength today. Shares saw a morning spike to $75.24 and then rebounded back to $79.26 at its high. A bounce near $75.00 is not a surprise but the strength of the bounce is surprising. We remain bearish with MMM under $80.00 but today's move might make us pause before opening new plays. We have set two targets. The first target is the $72.25 level, just above the January 2008 lows. Our second target is the $68.00 level, which should be closer to the bottom edge of MMM's bearish channel. The P&F chart is currently bearish with a $62 target. FYI: The most recent data lists short interest at just 1.5% of the 707 million-share float.

Picked on March 09 at $ 76.51
Change since picked: + 2.00
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.3 million

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Sears Holding - SHLD - close: 95.27 change: +0.20 stop: 100.51

The relative strength in SHLD today is also a surprise. The stock actually managed to trade above short-term resistance near $96.00 late this afternoon. We would take a step back and wait for this bounce to fail before considering new put positions. Our target is the $85.50-85.00 zone. There are a lot of investors who believe SHLD is going lower. The most recent data puts short interest at more than 19% of the 65 million-share float. That is almost 7 days worth of short interest. Naturally that raises our risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on March 06 at $ 94.00 *triggered
Change since picked: + 1.27
Earnings Date 02/28/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.8 million

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Wynn Resorts - WYNN - close: 96.94 chg: +0.27 stop: 95.55 *new*

If you are a day trader then WYNN has been perfect for you. Shares just produced another day or bouncing around the $92.50-98.00 zone. Down in the morning and up by late afternoon has been a consistent pattern. Boosting shares of WYNN today was a broker upgrade to "out perform". We are adjusting our stop loss to $98.55. If WYNN can trade over $100.50 it might be worth a short-term bullish trade. We're not suggesting new put plays at this time. Our target was the $86.50-85.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $64 target.

Picked on March 04 at $ 94.27 *gap down
Change since picked: + 2.67
Earnings Date 02/26/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

FMC Tech. - FTI - close: 55.31 chg: -2.99 stop: 54.45

FTI was a brand new call play from our weekend newsletter. Sadly a panic sell-off in stocks and oil as traders rushed to take profits on anything they could hit shares of FTI for a 5% loss. FTI gapped open lower at $56.83 and plunged to $53.49 (-8%) intraday before bouncing back. We remain bullish on the oil service plays like FTI but we'll wait another day or two and see how things shake out. A rebound near its 200-dma or the $50 zone might be an attractive entry point or a new rise past $58 or $59 again would be tempting.

Picked on March 16 at $ 58.18
Change since picked: - 2.99
Earnings Date 05/08/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million

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General Dynamic - GD - close: 84.28 chg: -0.11 stop: 82.99

Monday morning would definitely be classified as a "fast" market. Investors were nervous and a lot of stocks gapped open lower. A lot of quote services are going to tell you that GD's opening trade was at $82.92. This would have been under our stop loss and would have stopped us out. However, I contest this data! I went to the time and sales this morning. GD did gap open lower but the first trade appears to be $83.21 at 09:31:59. GD quickly dipped to $83.19 and that was the low for the session. We know bad ticks are a market hazard so we're going to close GD as a bullish play. However, we are keeping it on our watch list for another breakout over the $85.00 level.

Picked on March 13 at $ 86.10 /stopped 82.92 bad tick
Change since picked: - 1.82
Earnings Date 04/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million

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Mosaic - MOS - close: 102.91 change: -4.32 stop: 99.89

We knew MOS was a volatile stock. We warned readers that it would be. However, seeing our MOS play get stopped out with an intraday low of $99.75 makes it a struggle to keep emotion out of the trade. We are still very bullish on MOS and would strongly consider buying this dip here at $102.91. However, we're going to wait and see what happens tomorrow first. Tuesday's FOMC meeting could bring more market volatility.

Picked on March 14 at $111.25 *gap open /stopped at 99.89
Change since picked: - 8.34
Earnings Date 04/03/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.0 million
 

Dropped Puts

NII Holdings - NIHD - close: 31.23 change: -1.43 stop: 38.25

Target achieved. NIHD continues to slide lower. The stock hit an intraday low of $30.77. Our second target was the $31.00-30.00 zone. Shares look very oversold and due for a bounce so if you have not excited yet proceed with caution!

Picked on March 04 at $ 38.95 *triggered /2nd target 31.00
Change since picked: - 7.72
Earnings Date 02/27/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.3 million
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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