Core Labs - CLB - close: 119.23 chg: +1.88 stop: 117.99
CLB did not really participate in the market's rally today. Yes, the stock was up 1.6% but that is an under performance compared to a 4.2% gain in the S&P 500. More aggressive traders might want to consider positions here. We are going to stick to our plan. Right now our suggested trigger to buy calls on CLB is at $125.25. There is potential resistance near $130 so we're setting our first target at $129.85-130.00. We do think CLB will breakout past $130 sooner rather than later so we're setting a second target in the $137.50-140.00 zone.
Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Freeport-Mcmoran - FCX - cls: 98.69 chg: +4.08 stop: 98.99
The market was in rally mode today. Traders were selling their gold and using those profits to buy equities. FCX managed a 3.7% gain but probably could have done better if gold hadn't been down so much. Again, more aggressive traders may want to consider bullish positions here or above $100. We are sticking to our plan. Right now our suggested entry point to buy calls on FCX is at $105.51. We have two targets. Our first target is the $109.85-110.00 range. Our second target is the $117.50-120.00 zone.
Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Ingersoll Rand - IR - close: 44.49 change: +1.49 stop: 40.85
Shares of IR have rallied back to resistance near its 100-dma. The stock looks ready to breakout higher. Our target is the 47.00-47.50 zone.
Picked on March 09 at $ 42.87
Joy Global - JOYG - close: 69.40 chg: +2.88 stop: 67.45
JOYG erased yesterday's losses with today's gain. More nimble traders might want to jump in here with a stop loss under $65.00. We are going to wait. We are suggesting that readers buy calls at $72.50. If triggered our target is the $78.00-80.00 zone. Currently the Point & Figure chart is bullish with an $86 target. Now we do want to warn readers that early this month JOYG's CFO quit. No reason was given for his departure. Normally when the CFO resigns it's not a good sign but investors don't appear to be worried and the next earnings date isn't until late May.
Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Potash Corp. - POT - cls: 160.74 chg: +5.69 stop: 149.00
POT rallied back above the $160 mark. We would buy calls here or readers can wait for a new relative high over $165.00. Our target is the $178.00-180.00 zone. We will consider adding a second, more aggressive target as the play progresses. Remember, these stocks can be very volatile and see some huge intraday swings. We have to label this an aggressive, higher-risk play.
Picked on March 14 at $162.75 *triggered
Research In Motion - RIMM - cls: 105.00 chg: +6.88 stop: 94.49
The rebound in RIMM today looks pretty good. We would have liked to have seen more volume but shares did close above the 100-dma. The next stop should be the $110-112 zone. Our short-term target is the $110.00-112.00 zone. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher in the $120 region.
Picked on March 11 at $100.74
Yahoo! Inc. - YHOO - close: 27.66 change: +1.81 stop: n/a
Positive comments from YHOO about its current quarter and estimated cash flow in the future gave the stock a big boost today. Shares jumped 7% as investors are starting to think that MSFT will indeed have to raise their bid for the company. This remains a very speculative play and if you think MSFT is going to raise their offer then consider the April $30 or $32.50 calls. Or you could make this a covered call play. Buy YHOO here in the $27-29 zone. Put a stop loss under $25.70 and sell the April calls. (If you get stopped out of YHOO the stock you buy the calls back at the same time.)
Picked on February 17 at $ 29.66
Ambac Fincl. - ABK - cls: 6.25 change: +0.84 stop: n/a
It was all about the financial stocks today. Even ABK was able to ride the wave higher. Shares rose more than 15%. We are not suggesting new bearish positions in ABK. This remains a very speculative play. We will definitely hold over the April earnings if we get the chance. Previously we had been suggesting the May out-of-the money puts ($5.00 and $2.50 strikes) and an optional speculative out-of-the money March ($20) call as a hedge should a bailout plan come to pass.
Picked on January 27 at $ 11.54
Cytec Ind. - CYT - close: 53.92 chg: +1.55 stop: 57.15
The oversold bounce in CYT ended with a 2.9% gain and left shares sitting just under resistance near $54.00. The trend is still bearish but we're not suggesting new put positions. More conservative traders might want to move their stop closer to the $56 region. The $50.00 level looks like nearest support so we are targeting a drop into the $50.25-50.00 zone.
Picked on March 09 at $ 54.72
Harley-Davidson - HOG - close: 36.83 chg: +1.93 stop: 38.51
When the market produces one of these huge, global rallies everything rises even stocks like HOG. We suspect that most of today's 5.5% gain is short covering. The U.S. is still facing a consumer-lead recession. The challenge for us as traders is how do we manage our risk? HOG will probably see lower lows this year but if the current market rally continues is this a case of a rising tide lifts all boats and HOG rises too? Currently our stop is north of the 50-dma. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stop toward $38.00 or even $37.60, which is just above recent resistance near $37.50. Or we would strongly consider just exiting early now and keep HOG on your watch list for a new put entry point down the road. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 zone although it wouldn't surprise me to see a drop closer to $25. The P&F chart is bearish with a bearish triangle breakdown sell signal. FYI: The most recent data lists short interest at 9.6% of the 236 million-share float. That is an above average amount of short interest and raises our risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on March 10 at $ 34.69 *triggered
MBIA Inc. - MBI - close: 12.31 change: +1.51 stop: n/a
Shares of MBI managed an 11% bounce during today's financial-lead rally. We don't see any real changes in the situation with MBI. Although the company's CEO made out pretty well. The stock sank 80% over his tenure and he still walks away with a $5.2 million severance package. We're not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. We had been suggesting the out-of-the-money May puts (7.50, 5.00 and 2.50 strikes) and an optional March $22.50 (or $20.00) call as a hedge in case a bailout plan for the bond insurers does get done. We will definitely hold over the April earnings if we get the chance.
Picked on January 27 at $ 14.20
Express Scripts - ESRX - cls: 60.29 chg: +4.03 stop: 60.55
ESRX still has a bearish pattern of lower highs but we are suggesting an early exit immediately. The stock has broken through overhead resistance near $58.00, at its 10-dma, at its 200-dma and at the $60.00 level. Shares look poised to rebound toward the 50-dma and potentially higher.
Picked on March 09 at $ 58.51 /exiting early 60.29
FedEx - FDX - close: 86.92 change: +4.37 stop: 86.05
The rebound in FDX was pretty sharp. Shares recouped more than 5% and rallied back above the $86.00 level. Last night we had adjusted our stop loss to $86.05. While we have been stopped out FDX will probably stay on our watch list as a bearish candidate. The worst may be behind the financial industry but we're still facing a recession, which will be tough sailing for companies like FDX.
Picked on March 10 at $ 85.95 *triggered /stopped 86.05
3M Co. - MMM - close: 80.95 change: +2.44 stop: 80.25
A massive market rebound was enough to fuel a bullish breakout in MMM. Shares of MMM broke through resistance at the top of its bearish channel and the $80.00 level. If MMM can clear the $81.50 zone it might make a decent bullish candidate. Our stop loss was at $80.25.
Picked on March 09 at $ 76.51 /stopped 80.25
Sears Holding - SHLD - close: 98.16 change: +2.89 stop: 100.51
We pose the same question to you here as we did with HOG. With the U.S. in a consumer-lead recession shares of SHLD should see lower lows this year. However, it looks like we have a short-term market bottom on our hands and a continued rally could lift "all boats" including SHLD. How do you manage your risk? You could leave your stop above resistance at $100. We came close to doing just that. However, at this time we'd rather exit now, cut our losses, and move on. We will keep SHLD on our watch list for future entry points.
Picked on March 06 at $ 94.00 *triggered /exiting early 98.16
Wynn Resorts - WYNN - close: 99.01 chg: +2.07 stop: 95.55
WYNN has not been very cooperative. We were entered on this put play with a gap down. Today we've been stopped out with the gap higher. Last night we adjusted our stop loss to $95.55 to reduce our risk. Unfortunately, WYNN opened at $98.99 this morning. While our play has been closed we think readers should keep an eye on it. Honestly, at this point, WYNN looks set to rally higher and it could easily be trading in the $105-107 zone by the end of this week.
Picked on March 04 at $ 94.27 *gap down/stopped gap higher