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Call Updates

Joy Global - JOYG - close: 64.37 chg: -5.03 stop: 67.45

Shares of JOYG sold off more than 5% as part of the meltdown in gold and anything associated with the precious metal. The stock has essentially been going sideways the last five or six weeks so we're willing to keep it on our play list for now. Of course we're still sitting on the sidelines waiting for a breakout to new highs. We are suggesting that readers buy calls at $72.50. If triggered our target is the $78.00-80.00 zone. Currently the Point & Figure chart is bullish with an $86 target. More nimble traders may want to consider some very short-term puts if JOYG trades under $62.50 but watch for support near its rising 200-dma around $57.50.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/29/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million


Research In Motion - RIMM - cls: 101.12 chg: -3.88 stop: 95.75*new*

RIMM handed back a large portion of yesterday's gains. The stock has been unable to break the pattern of lower highs nor has it confidently broken past the 100-dma in the last couple of weeks. At the very least I suspect that RIMM will dip back to the $97-96 region, where it should encounter the trendline of higher lows. We have moved the stop loss higher to $95.75 so that if RIMM breaks that trendline we'll be stopped out. If you don't want to endure another dip toward $96.00 then consider exiting tomorrow morning as soon as you can. Our target has been the $110.00-112.00 zone. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher in the $120 region.

Picked on March 11 at $100.74
Change since picked: + 0.38
Earnings Date 04/02/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 25 million


Yahoo! Inc. - YHOO - close: 27.07 change: -0.59 stop: n/a

Tomorrow is our last day for the March options on this YHOO play. If MSFT doesn't come out with a higher bid our options will expire worthless. There is still a decent chance that MSFT will raise its bid and readers will have to decide if they want to speculate on April or May calls again.

Picked on February 17 at $ 29.66
Change since picked: - 2.59
Earnings Date 04/17/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 54 million

Put Updates

Ambac Fincl. - ABK - cls: 5.84 change: -0.41 stop: n/a

The bounce from $5.00 is struggling. We are not suggesting new bearish positions in ABK. This remains a very speculative play. We will definitely hold over the April earnings if we get the chance. Previously we had been suggesting the May out-of-the money puts ($5.00 and $2.50 strikes) and an optional speculative out-of-the money March ($20) call as a hedge should a bailout plan come to pass.

Picked on January 27 at $ 11.54
Change since picked: - 5.70
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 10.9 million


Cytec Ind. - CYT - close: 52.50 chg: -1.42 stop: 57.15

CYT delivered a perfect failed rally at its 10-dma this morning and shares rolled over into a 2.6% loss. We remain bearish here. More conservative traders might want to move their stop closer to the $56 region. The $50.00 level looks like nearest support so we are targeting a drop into the $50.25-50.00 zone. More aggressive traders might want to consider aiming lower.

Picked on March 09 at $ 54.72
Change since picked: - 2.22
Earnings Date 04/17/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 601 million


Harley-Davidson - HOG - close: 35.76 chg: -1.07 stop: 38.51

Right on cue shares of HOG produced a bearish failed rally near resistance at $37.50. This could be used as a new entry point for shorts! More conservative traders might want to tighten their stop toward $38.00 or even $37.60, which is just above recent resistance near $37.50. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 zone although it wouldn't surprise me to see a drop closer to $25. The P&F chart is bearish with a bearish triangle breakdown sell signal. FYI: The most recent data lists short interest at 9.6% of the 236 million-share float. That is an above average amount of short interest and raises our risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on March 10 at $ 34.69 *triggered
Change since picked: + 1.07
Earnings Date 04/17/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.1 million


MBIA Inc. - MBI - close: 12.03 change: -0.28 stop: n/a

We do not see any changes from our prior comments on MBI. We're not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. We had been suggesting the out-of-the-money May puts (7.50, 5.00 and 2.50 strikes) and an optional March $22.50 (or $20.00) call as a hedge in case a bailout plan for the bond insurers does get done. We will definitely hold over the April earnings if we get the chance.

Picked on January 27 at $ 14.20
Change since picked: - 2.17
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 15.2 million

Strangle Updates


Dropped Calls

Core Labs - CLB - close: 112.26 chg: -6.97 stop: 117.99

Commodities sold off today and the oil service stocks followed crude lower. Shares of CLB plunged more than 5.8% and broke down through several levels of support. We are fundamentally bullish on the oil service sector but this volatility is getting a little crazy. We would definitely keep an eye on CLB for a dip into the $105-100 zone as a potential entry point for bullish plays but we'll definitely re-evaluate CLB if it gets that low first. This bullish play was planned on a breakout higher. We were suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $125.25, which did not happen.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx *never opened
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 295 thousand


Freeport-Mcmoran - FCX - cls: 87.60 chg: -11.09 stop: 98.99

The sell-off in FCX is getting a little excessive. Again, we're fundamentally bullish on a lot of the commodity plays but short-term this group is getting hammered. FCX has broken several layers of support today. This bullish play was planned with a trigger to buy calls at $105.51, which has not happened yet. We're dropping it as a candidate. It's hard to say where the next level of support is for FCX. There might be some support in the $82-80 zone. If that fails then FCX could drop to the $70-68 region.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 13.7 million


Ingersoll Rand - IR - close: 42.50 change: -1.99 stop: 40.85

We are giving up on IR too. The stock has struggled with resistance near $45.00 for days. Today's move is a clear failed rally pattern. The bulls will claim that IR still has a positive pattern of higher lows and it does. However, in this market environment, we'd rather exit now and revisit IR if it bounces near support around $40.00.

Picked on March 09 at $ 42.87
Change since picked: - 0.37
Earnings Date 04/20/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.5 million


Potash Corp. - POT - cls: 144.47 chg: -16.27 stop: 149.00

The agriculture plays were not working today! Anything related to commodities just got pummeled senseless. Shares of POT plunged 10% and did so on above average volume. The stock hit our stop loss at $149.00. We do want to point out that in the past, when POT has these murderous declines and looks like it's just going to crash, it always seems to bounce back. The stock had a huge plunge on March 10th, 2008 and it rebounded the next day. The stock sold off dramatically in January but quickly vaulted higher. Early November 2007 witnessed another big sell-off and traders bought it back the next day. We warned readers that POT was very volatile and that this was a high risk play but that doesn't make us feel any better when we see these sort of declines. POT is still in a long-term bullish trend and the fundamental story should work for years to come. However, short-term we would just take a big step back and watch. POT might have support near $140 and a dip near its rising 100-dma (around $135.00) would be a very tempting entry point but we would only consider it with a very tight stop loss. As of right now no one knows how long this profit taking in commodity-related stocks is going to last.

Picked on March 14 at $162.75 *triggered /stopped 149.00
Change since picked: -18.28
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.5 million

Dropped Puts


Dropped Strangles


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