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Call Updates

Research In Motion - RIMM - cls: 104.94 chg: +3.82 stop: 95.75

Shares of RIMM bounced back (again) on Thursday. The stock dipped to $99.70, which was probably enough to trigger a few stops, and then surged back toward resistance in the $105-106 zone. Thursday's move should qualify as a "higher low" in what appears to be a developing bullish trend. After the closing bell on Thursday rival Palm (PALM) reported earnings that were lower than expected. RIMM and AAPL have been taking market share from PALM and PALM's earnings report might give a lift to RIMM and AAPL on Monday. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target has been the $110.00-112.00 zone. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher in the $120 region.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new positions in RIMM at this time.

Picked on March 11 at $100.74
Change since picked: + 4.20
Earnings Date 04/02/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 25 million
 

Put Updates

Ambac Fincl. - ABK - cls: 6.70 change: +0.86 stop: n/a

More action by the Federal Reserve on Thursday helped re-launch the financial rally and ABK managed a 14.7% bounce. We are not suggesting new bearish positions in ABK. This remains a very speculative play. We will definitely hold over the April earnings if we get the chance. Previously we had been suggesting the May out-of-the money puts ($5.00 and $2.50 strikes).

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new plays in ABK at this time.

The bounce from $5.00 is struggling.
Picked on January 27 at $ 11.54
Change since picked: - 4.84
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 10.9 million

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Cytec Ind. - CYT - close: 52.62 chg: +0.12 stop: 56.15 *new*

CYT tagged another new relative low on Thursday. Shares slipped to $51.06 before bouncing back. The trend is still negative but any oversold bounce could easily lift it toward $54.00. We are adjusting the stop loss to $56.15. The $50.00 level looks like nearest support so we are targeting a drop into the $50.25-50.00 zone. More aggressive traders might want to consider aiming lower.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new put positions in CYT at this time.

Annotated chart:

Picked on March 09 at $ 54.72
Change since picked: - 2.10
Earnings Date 04/17/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 601 million

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MBIA Inc. - MBI - close: 12.77 change: +0.74 stop: n/a

MBI has rebounded higher for three days in a row after dipping under $10.00 on Monday last week. Short-term the stock looks poised to keep bouncing but MBI is nearing resistance around $13.00 and its 50-dma. We're not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. We had been suggesting the out-of-the-money May puts (7.50, 5.00 and 2.50 strikes). We will definitely hold over the April earnings if we get the chance.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new puts in MBI at this time.

Annotated chart:

Picked on January 27 at $ 14.20
Change since picked: - 1.43
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 15.2 million
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

Joy Global - JOYG - close: 62.04 chg: -2.33 stop: 67.45

It turned out to be a very ugly weak for anything related to precious metals. Gold lost about 12% and JOYG fell close to 10% in just the last four days. The stock is arguably short-term oversold and traders did buy the dip near its rising 100-dma. While we did consider how we could play bullish positions here we would only expect a snap back toward $65.00 maybe $66.00 before JOYG ran into congestion again. Long-term the fundamentals behind JOYG should be good but short-term it will probably remain volatile. If JOYG breaks down under $60.00 look for a dip near its 200-dma and probably the $55.00 region.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/29/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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Yahoo! Inc. - YHOO - close: 27.66 change: +0.59 stop: n/a

We are throwing in the towel on our speculative YHOO play. We listed this play as a gamble that MSFT would raise its bid to buy YHOO before March expiration. Our "bet" did not pan out. The general idea behind this play still works. The challenge is the time frame. Odds are still good that MSFT will acquire YHOO but we can't say when this deal will finally happen or more importantly when MSFT will raise its offer. It could be next week. It could be a couple of months. It could be longer. You could speculate on April or May calls and try again. Another alternative would be to turn this into a covered call play. You could buy YHOO the stock here with a stop loss under $25.70 and start selling calls. On a purely technical note I found it interesting that last week's low was very close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its rally from the January lows. However, YHOO shouldn't be trading on technicals due to the potential merger with MSFT.

Picked on February 17 at $ 29.66
Change since picked: - 2.00
Earnings Date 04/17/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 54 million
 

Dropped Puts

Harley-Davidson - HOG - close: 38.23 chg: +2.47 stop: 38.51

What in the world happened to HOG on Thursday? Shares exploded higher and ended the session up 6.9%. We could not find any news to account for the rally. The stock has broken through resistance near $37.50 and its 50-dma. This is very negative for the bears. Yes, the overall trend is still bearish but short-term we're looking at a bullish breakout and potential bullish reversal. We are suggesting an early exit immediately. We can look at HOG again when it nears the long-term descending trendline. HOG should be a bearish candidate if we are facing a consumer-lead recession.

Picked on March 10 at $ 34.69 *triggered
Change since picked: + 3.54
Earnings Date 04/17/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.1 million
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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