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Call Updates

Aluminum Corp. of China - ACH - cls: 42.72 chg: -1.18 stop: 39.85

ACH experienced some profit taking on Wednesday following yesterday's big rally. The short-term trend is still bullish but if you're looking for a new entry point we would watch for another dip near $42.00 maybe $41.50 as a potential entry. $39.85. We have two targets. Our conservative target is the $44.85-45.00 range. Our more aggressive target is the $48.50-50.00 zone.

Picked on March 30 at $ 40.80
Change since picked: + 1.92
Earnings Date 03/18/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million


Essex Prop. Trust - ESS - cls: 117.66 chg: -3.82 stop: 109.90

The REIT stocks seem to be a volatile bunch and ESS is no exception. The stock lost 3.1% today and did so on above average volume. The short-term trend is still bullish but we would wait and watch for a dip or a bounce near $115.00 before considering new call positions. More conservative traders may want to adjust their stop toward the $112 or $113 region. Our target is the $124.50-125.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a triple-top breakout buy signal and a $142 target (it was a $132 target).

Picked on March 24 at $115.50 *triggered
Change since picked: + 2.16
Earnings Date 05/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 408 thousand


FPL Group - FPL - close: 65.77 chg: +0.88 stop: 61.45 *new*

FPL continued to rally on Wednesday. Shares added another 1.3%. The stock actually traded above technical resistance at its 100-dma on an intraday basis. The high today was $66.50. Our target is the $67.00-67.50 zone. Unfortunately, at this time, the stock looks poised to dip back toward $65 or $64. We are adjusting our stop loss to $61.45, just under the recent low. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $79 target.

Picked on March 27 at $ 63.55 *triggered
Change since picked: + 2.22
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million


Fluor - FLR - close: 148.82 chg: +0.04 stop: 136.45

The fact that FLR resisted any profit taking after yesterday's big gain is pretty bullish. That doesn't mean FLR won't see a dip but we are certainly encouraged by FLR's relative strength. We would consider new positions here at current levels but a pull back to the $146.00 or $145.00 level would be a more attractive entry point. We have two targets. Our first target is the $159.00-160.00 zone. Our second target is the $168.00-170.00 zone. We do not want to hold over earnings in early May. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $184 target.

Picked on April 01 at $146.50 *triggered
Change since picked: + 2.32
Earnings Date 05/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million


Arcelor Mittal - MT - close: 81.49 chg: -0.92 stop: 76.95

MT held an investor day in New York today. We didn't see any big headlines come out of the conference. Trading was mediocre. The stock continues to trade sideways but is managing to hold above broken resistance and what should be support at the $80.00 level. Our target is the $89.00-90.00 zone. The P&F chart is very bullish with a $101 target.

Picked on March 31 at $ 82.03 *triggered/gap open
Change since picked: - 0.54
Earnings Date 05/15/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

Put Updates

Ambac Fincl. - ABK - cls: 6.19 change: +0.08 stop: n/a

The financial sectors did not see any follow through higher on yesterday's massive rally. Yet ABK bucked the trend and posted a small gain. The general trend is still bearish. We are not suggesting new bearish positions in ABK. This remains a very speculative play. We will definitely hold over the April earnings if we get the chance. Previously we had been suggesting the May out-of-the money puts ($5.00 and $2.50 strikes).

The bounce from $5.00 is struggling.
Picked on January 27 at $ 11.54
Change since picked: - 5.35
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 10.9 million


Garmin Ltd - GRMN - close: 56.41 chg: +1.56 stop: 60.05

GRMN is still seeing an oversold bounce. A failed rally near $58.00 could be used as a new bearish entry point to buy puts again. It seems like every other day we're hearing more bad news or more negative comments on how GRMN could really struggle against a crowd of rising competition. The stock has already hit our initial target in the $54.50-54.00 zone. Our second more aggressive target is the $50.50-50.00 zone. We do not want to hold over the early May earnings report.

Picked on March 27 at $ 58.97 /1st target exceeded
Change since picked: - 2.56
Earnings Date 05/01/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.9 million


Humana Inc - HUM - cls: 46.04 chg: -0.96 stop: 48.01

HUM's bounce appeared to run out of steam at the $47.00 mark. Shares lost about 2% giving back half of yesterday's gains. We remain bearish but readers may want to see a new drop under $45.50 or $45.20 before considering new put plays. A clear failed rally under $48.00 could also work as an entry point. Currently the P&F chart is so bearish it points to a target of zero ($0.00). Our first target is $40.50-40.00. We will consider a second, more aggressive target as the play progresses.

Picked on March 30 at $ 45.20
Change since picked: + 0.84
Earnings Date 04/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.4 million


MBIA Inc. - MBI - close: 13.76 change: +0.28 stop: n/a

Hmmm... on a purely technical basis it looks like shares of MBI may have bottomed. The stock is close to breaking out from a pennant-shaped consolidation pattern. We expect MBI's next quarterly report to be terrible and think bears might do well to actually hold over the report, which is something we typically avoid doing. Earnings are still three to four weeks away and we probably don't want to wait if shares rally for three weeks into earnings. We would seriously consider closing this play if MBI closes above $14.50 or $15.00. We're not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. We had been suggesting the out-of-the-money May puts (7.50, 5.00 and 2.50 strikes).

Picked on January 27 at $ 14.20
Change since picked: - 0.44
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 15.2 million

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