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Call Updates

Aluminum Corp. of China - ACH - cls: 44.25 chg: +1.72 stop: 39.85

ACH reversed yesterday's losses with a strong 4% gain today. Unfortunately, the intraday high was only $44.69. Our first target is the $44.85-44.00 zone. We remain bullish but we're not suggesting new call positions at current levels. Our more aggressive target is the $48.50-50.00 zone.

Picked on March 30 at $ 40.80
Change since picked: + 3.45
Earnings Date 03/18/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million

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Core Labs - CLB - close: 127.15 chg: +2.26 stop: 117.45

CLB continued to rally on Thursday with an intraday high of $129.28, just under resistance in the $130 region. The stock is looking a little short-term overbought with gains in 7 out of the last 8 trading days. With CLB testing resistance we would expect a correction (a.k.a. profit taking). We're sticking to our plan. We're suggesting readers buy calls on a dip into the $121.00-120.00 zone. Broken resistance near $120 should be new support. If triggered our target is the $129.00-130.00 range. More aggressive traders could aim higher but we do not want to hold over earnings. FYI: A breakout over $130 would be a technical buy signal but we would still hesitate to chase it.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 240 thousand

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Essex Prop. Trust - ESS - cls: 119.17 chg: +1.51 stop: 109.90

Traders decided to buy the dip in ESS this morning and the stock out performed the broader market with a 1.2% gain today. Volume came in above average on the move, which is a good sign. More conservative traders may want to adjust their stop toward the $112 or $113 region. Our target is the $124.50-125.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a triple-top breakout buy signal and a $142 target (it was a $132 target).

Picked on March 24 at $115.50 *triggered
Change since picked: + 3.67
Earnings Date 05/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 408 thousand

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Fluor - FLR - close: 152.66 chg: +3.84 stop: 136.45

FLR continues to out perform. The stock rallied again posting a 2.58% gain and breaking out past potential round-number resistance at the $150 level. We have two targets. Our first target is the $159.00-160.00 zone. Our second target is the $168.00-170.00 zone. We do not want to hold over earnings in early May. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $184 target.

Picked on April 01 at $146.50 *triggered
Change since picked: + 6.16
Earnings Date 05/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million

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FPL Group - FPL - close: 65.78 chg: +0.01 stop: 61.45

FPL spent Thursday trading sideways and consolidating prior gains. While the trend is bullish we would still expect a dip near $64. Our target is the $67.00-67.50 zone. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $79 target.

Picked on March 27 at $ 63.55 *triggered
Change since picked: + 2.23
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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3M Co. - MMM - close: 80.17 chg: -0.74 stop: 78.45

MMM slipped back to the $80 level. More nimble traders might be tempted to buy a dip near $80 or the $79 levels. In this environment we would rather wait for the breakout over resistance. We're suggesting readers buy calls at $81.75. If triggered there is potential resistance near $85 and its 200-dma but our target is the $87.00-87.50 zone. We will try and limit our risk with a stop loss at $78.45 but there is stronger support near $78 and more aggressive traders may want to use a wider stop under $77.85. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.9 million

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Arcelor Mittal - MT - close: 82.48 chg: +0.99 stop: 76.95

MT edged to a new relative high of $83.22 before paring its gains late this afternoon. The stock continues to look poised for a big move higher. We would still consider new bullish positions with MT consolidating sideways above support/resistance at $80.00. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops closer to the $80 region. Our target is the $89.00-90.00 zone. The P&F chart is very bullish with a $101 target. In the news today MT announced it had acquired a 50% stake in Gonvarri Brasil to form a joint venture with the company.

Picked on March 31 at $ 82.03 *triggered/gap open
Change since picked: + 0.45
Earnings Date 05/15/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million
 

Put Updates

Ambac Fincl. - ABK - cls: 6.24 change: +0.05 stop: n/a

We don't see any changes from our previous comments on ABK. We are not suggesting new bearish positions in ABK. This remains a very speculative play. We will definitely hold over the April earnings if we get the chance. Previously we had been suggesting the May out-of-the money puts ($5.00 and $2.50 strikes).

The bounce from $5.00 is struggling.
Picked on January 27 at $ 11.54
Change since picked: - 5.30
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 10.9 million

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Humana Inc - HUM - cls: 44.44 chg: -1.60 stop: 48.01

HUM continues to show relative weakness. The stock lost another 3.4% today and the selling looks poised to pick up speed. We would still consider new put positions here. Our target is the $40.50-40.00 zone. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. Currently the P&F chart is so bearish it points to a target of zero ($0.00).

Picked on March 30 at $ 45.20
Change since picked: - 0.76
Earnings Date 04/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.4 million

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MBIA Inc. - MBI - close: 14.29 change: +0.53 stop: n/a

MBI displayed relative strength with a 3.8% gain. We don't see any changes from our Wednesday comments. On a technical basis it looks like shares of MBI may have bottomed. The stock is close to breaking out from a pennant-shaped consolidation pattern. We expect MBI's next quarterly report to be terrible and think bears might do well to actually hold over the report, which is something we typically avoid doing. Earnings are still three to four weeks away and we probably don't want to wait if shares rally for three weeks into earnings. We would seriously consider closing this play if MBI closes above $14.50 or $15.00. We're not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. We had been suggesting the out-of-the-money May puts (7.50, 5.00 and 2.50 strikes).

Picked on January 27 at $ 14.20
Change since picked: + 0.09
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 15.2 million
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

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Dropped Puts

Garmin Ltd - GRMN - close: 52.81 chg: -3.60 stop: 60.05

Target achieved! GRMN gapped open lower at $50.79 and hit an intraday low of $50.18 before recovering to close with a 6.3% loss. At its worst levels of the day GRMN was down 11%. Our second target was the $50.50-50.00 zone. Driving the move lower were negative comments out of GRMN's CFO stating that Q1 revenues would be significantly lower than the previous quarter and that margins are expected to slip under 40 percent. The play is closed for us but I think GRMN still looks vulnerable to more declines. I will not be surprised when GRMN breaks down under round-number support at $50.00 and will be watching for a new entry point to launch new bearish positions. GRMN may be trading near $40 in the next few months. The P&F chart points to a $44 target.

Picked on March 27 at $ 58.97 /1st target exceeded
Change since picked: - 2.56
Earnings Date 05/01/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.9 million
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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