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Call Updates

Aluminum Corp. of China - ACH - cls: 43.95 chg: -0.30 stop: 39.85

ACH has been consistently moving (channeling) higher over the last two weeks. If you were looking for a new short-term bullish entry point a dip near $43.00 or $42.50 should work although you may want to consider a tighter stop loss than our suggested stop at $39.85. ACH's next level of overhead resistance is the 100-dma and exponential 200-dma near $46.75. Please note that we are adjusting our target to $47.75-50.00.

Suggested Options:
If ACH provides a new entry point we would suggest the May calls.

Picked on March 30 at $ 40.80
Change since picked: + 3.15
Earnings Date 03/18/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million

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Core Labs - CLB - close: 129.35 chg: +2.20 stop: 118.99 *new*

CLB has continued to run away from us. We have been suggesting readers buy a dip near $120 but CLB keeps posting gains. While the relative strength is great we don't want to chase it. The stock is up 8 out of the last 9 trading days and stocks don't normally moving in a straight line for very long. Furthermore CLB is now testing major resistance near $130. A breakout over $130 would be very bullish and if you squint hard enough at the chart a move over $130 looks like the break of its inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, which would also be bullish and suggests a $150+ target. CLB is up about 20 points in just the past couple of weeks so this spot, just under resistance at $130, is the logical place to see profit taking. We are going to adjust our suggested entry point to buy calls from $121-120 to $123.50-120.00. We are also inching up our stop loss to $118.99. If triggered at $123.50 our short-term target will remain $130 (actually 129.75) but we'll add a second target of $139-140. We still do not want to hold over earnings in late April.

Suggested Options:
If CLB hits our entry point to buy calls (123.50 to 120.00) we would suggest the May calls. The $120, $125 and $130 strikes look good.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 240 thousand

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Essex Prop. Trust - ESS - cls: 116.47 chg: -2.70 stop: 112.95*new*

Major REIT stocks under performed the market on Friday. We did not see any significant news in the industry to account for the weakness but did find one note from a JPMorgan analyst who suggested that REITs may have a harder time earnings fees this year compared to 2007. This dip in ESS near its rising 10-dma is probably another bullish entry point. The stock has also pulled back to the bottom edge of its four-week rising channel. We are adjusting our stop loss to $112.95. Truly conservative traders might want to adjust their stop even closer to the $115 region. Our target is the $124.50-125.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a triple-top breakout buy signal and a $142 target.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the May calls.

Picked on March 24 at $115.50 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.97
Earnings Date 05/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 408 thousand

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Fluor - FLR - close: 152.89 chg: +0.23 stop: 139.90 *new*

Last week was very strong for FLR. The stock added close to 9% and broke through resistance near $145. After such a strong move it's probably time to look for a correction. A dip back into the $147.50-145.00 zone can be used as a new bullish entry point. We are adjusting our stop loss to $139.90. More conservative traders may want to consider a stop loss in the $142-144 region. We have two targets. Our first target is the $159.00-160.00 zone. Our second target is the $168.00-170.00 zone. We do not want to hold over earnings in early May. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $184 target.

Suggested Options:
If FLR provides a new entry point we would suggest the May calls.

Picked on April 01 at $146.50 *triggered
Change since picked: + 6.39
Earnings Date 05/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million

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3M Co. - MMM - close: 80.52 chg: +0.35 stop: 78.45

We had a tough decision to make in MMM. The trading on Friday with the intraday bounce near $79.50 really looks like a short-term bullish entry point to buy calls. We seriously thought about changing our strategy to buy calls now. However, we decided to stick with our trading plan and wait for the breakout over resistance near $81.50. Our official entry point to buy calls is still at $81.75. More nimble and aggressive traders might want to consider buying calls now and if you do then consider a slightly tighter stop. There is potential resistance near $85.00 and its 200-dma but our target is the $87.00-87.50 zone. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Suggested Options:
If MMM hits our trigger at $81.75 we would suggest the May calls. We would use the $80 or $85 strikes.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.9 million

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Arcelor Mittal - MT - close: 85.17 chg: +2.69 stop: 78.24 *new*

Iron and steel stocks were market leaders on Friday. Shares of MT rose more than 3% to a new all-time high. Volume picked up to better than average levels, which is a positive sign for the bulls. If you don't want to chase MT here consider waiting for a dip back to the $82.50-82.00 zone. We are raising the stop loss to $78.24 and we're close to raising the stop near $80.00. Our target is the $89.00-90.00 zone. The P&F chart is very bullish and just saw its price target jump from $101 to $113 this past week.

Suggested Options:
We have been suggesting the May calls.

Picked on March 31 at $ 82.03 *triggered/gap open
Change since picked: + 3.14
Earnings Date 05/15/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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Potash Corp. - POT - close: 170.89 chg: +3.22 stop: 149.75

Believe it or not we're currently on the sidelines with POT. Our play from Thursday night stated that we do not want to open new positions if POT gapped open above $172 on Friday morning. Mosaic's earnings (MOS) were better than expected and this fueled another spike higher in the fertilizer names. POT opened at $173.01 and hit $175.46 before pulling back. We're still bullish on POT but we want to be more selective with the entry point. We are suggesting that readers buy a dip in the $167.50-165.00 zone. Broken resistance near $165.00 should be new support. POT is up about $20 from its April 1st low and shares probably need a rest. We are taking a risk that the stock just continues to run and we never get filled. We are playing with a wide stop loss because the stock can be so volatile. More conservative traders might want to try and play with a stop closer to $160 instead. Our first target is the $179.50-180.00 zone. Our second target is the $188.00-190.00 zone. More aggressive traders could aim for the $200 region. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $218 target.

Suggested Options:
Our suggested entry point is the $167.50-165.00 zone. We like the May calls but plan to exit ahead of the late April earnings. May strikes between $160 and $185 should work.

Picked on April 03 at $167.67
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.7 million
 

Put Updates

Ambac Fincl. - ABK - cls: 5.99 change: -0.25 stop: n/a

ABK and MBI, the two biggest bond insurers, are back in the crosshairs of the ratings agencies. Of course you could argue they never left as most agencies have both on negative credit watch. ABK and MBI both traded down about 4% on Friday after Fitch cut its rating on MBI from AAA to AA. We are not suggesting new bearish positions in ABK. This remains a very speculative play. We will definitely hold over the April earnings if we get the chance. Previously we had been suggesting the May out-of-the money puts ($5.00 and $2.50 strikes).

Suggested Options:
We're not suggesting new positions in ABK.

Picked on January 27 at $ 11.54
Change since picked: - 5.55
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 10.9 million

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Humana Inc - HUM - cls: 44.12 chg: -0.32 stop: 47.05 *new*

HUM is still looking weak as investors sell the intraday bounce attempts. We are adjusting our stop loss to $47.05. We would still consider new positions here but you might want to use a tighter stop loss if you're opening new plays. Our target is the $40.50-40.00 zone. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. Currently the P&F chart is so bearish it points to a target of zero ($0.00).

Suggested Options:
We would use the May puts but remember we plan to exit ahead of the April earnings report.

Picked on March 30 at $ 45.20
Change since picked: - 1.08
Earnings Date 04/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.4 million

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MBIA Inc. - MBI - close: 13.61 change: -0.68 stop: n/a

The big bond insurers could be in for another rocky period. Friday's big news in the industry was a report that the rating agency Fitch had downgraded MBI from AAA to AA. Fitch claims that MBI is more than $3 billion short of what they feel is needed to warrant a triple-A rating. This move by Fitch might embolden the other rating agencies to go ahead and downgrade the big bond insurers. Normally a bond insurer needs a AAA rating to garner new business so this could be a potential death knell for the company. I'm surprised MBI wasn't down more sharply on Friday. We have not been suggesting new bearish positions but if you wanted to speculate with puts here it might work if you place a stop loss above $14.50 or $15.00. We had been suggesting the out-of-the-money May puts (7.50, 5.00 and 2.50 strikes).

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on January 27 at $ 14.20
Change since picked: - 0.59
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 15.2 million
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

FPL Group - FPL - close: 65.95 chg: +0.17 stop: 61.45

Target achieved. Alternative energy stocks soared on Friday. Solar stocks lead the way but FPL hit an intraday high of $67.00 before paring its gains. Our target was the $67.00-67.50 zone. The play is closed for us but we would keep FPL on our watch list. A dip or bounce near $64.00 would still look like another bullish entry point.

Picked on March 27 at $ 63.55 *triggered
Change since picked: + 2.40
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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