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Call Updates

Aluminum Corp. of China - ACH - cls: 42.16 chg: +1.10 stop: 39.85

Chinese stocks bounced after yesterday's painful decline in the Chinese markets. Shares of ACH added 2.6% as traders bought the dip. Bulls might be in the clear if ACH can trade over $43.25 again. ACH has already exceeded our initial target at $44.85. Our second, more aggressive target is the $47.75-50.00 zone.

Picked on March 30 at $ 40.80 /1st target exceeded (44.85)
Change since picked: + 1.36
Earnings Date 03/18/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million

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Ashland Inc. - ASH - close: 51.17 change: +0.01 stop: 47.95

We've been suggesting that readers buy a dip near $50.00. Traders jumped in at $50.42 and we suspect that might be as low as it gets. We would consider new bullish positions at this time and if we had to complain it would be about the lackluster volume on the intraday bounce. More conservative traders might want to tighten stops even further. There is potential resistance at its 200-dma in the $54-55 zone. Our target is the $57.00-58.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on April 06 at $ 51.25
Change since picked: - 0.08
Earnings Date 04/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 774 thousand

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Core Labs - CLB - close: 135.15 chg: +2.09 stop: 122.45

Sooner or later we're going to have to give up on CLB or change our strategy. We added it to the newsletter on April 2nd when shares were near $125 and we suggested readers wait for a dip. Unfortunately for us the dip never came. The stock has continued to rally almost non-stop and is up more than 10 points. Nothing goes up in a straight line for very long but the move over $130 is a bullish breakout from an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. This forecasts a $155 target. More nimble, aggressive traders might want to jump in on a dip near $130. We are going to adjust our suggested entry point to the $126.00-125.00 zone and adjust our stop loss to $122.45. Our target will move to $139.00-140.00. We still do not want to hold over earnings in late April.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 240 thousand

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CONSOL Energy - CNX - cls: 77.90 chg: +1.13 stop: 69.49

Coal stocks and CNX have continued to run away from us as well. Right now we're suggesting readers buy a dip in the $73.50-72.50 zone but we're starting to wonder if that will happen. More aggressive traders may want to adjust their entry to a dip just north of $75.00 instead. The Point & Figure chart is very bullish with a $95 target. We are listing two targets. Our first target is the $79.75-80.00 range. Our second target is the $84.00-85.00 zone. More aggressive traders might want to aim for $90. Remember, we do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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Fluor - FLR - close: 152.40 chg: +1.27 stop: 143.45

Traders continue to buy dips to FLR's rising 10-dma, which is normally a bullish sign. Volume continues to come in pretty low, which doesn't suggest a lot of confidence. The trend remains bullish and we would consider new positions here. We have two targets. Our first target is the $159.00-160.00 zone. Our second target is the $168.00-170.00 zone. We do not want to hold over earnings in early May. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $184 target.

Picked on April 01 at $146.50 *triggered
Change since picked: + 5.90
Earnings Date 05/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million

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Hovnanian - HOV - close: 11.34 chg: +0.38 stop: *varies*

The homebuilders scratched out a bounce after two days of profit taking. HOV is trying to rebound from its 200-dma. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. The stock is nearing our suggested entry point in the $10.50-10.00 zone. Our readers might want to narrow that to $10.20-10.00 or $10.15-10.00. We are going to adjust our stop from 9.49 to $9.64. We are listing two potential entry points and stops for each entry. If HOV rallies from here we're suggesting readers buy calls at $13.25 with a wide stop loss at $10.99. If HOV pulls back from here then we suggest readers buy calls in the $10.50-10.00 zone with a stop loss at $9.64. If triggered at $13.25 our first target is the $16.90-17.00 range. Our second target is $19.85-20.00. If triggered near $10 our first target is $14.50-15.00 and our second target would be near $20. Remember, this is an aggressive play. The stocks have seen a lot of whipsaws over the last several weeks.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/29/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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Lincoln Elec. - LECO - cls: 71.08 chg: +1.09 stop: 67.90

Entry point alert! As expected LECO filled the gap near $69.50 and bounced. If you missed the dip this morning we would still consider new bullish positions now. More conservative traders might want to ratchet up their stops toward $69. We have two targets. Our first target is the $74.85-75.00 range. Our second target is the $78.00-80.00 zone. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $91 target. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on April 07 at $ 73.73 *triggered/gap higher
Change since picked: - 2.65
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 233 thousand

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3M Co. - MMM - close: 80.35 chg: +0.76 stop: 78.45

MMM is bouncing again but we're going to stick to our plan and wait for a breakout. We are suggesting readers use a trigger to buy calls at $81.75. There is potential resistance near $85.00 and its 200-dma but our target is the $87.00-87.50 zone. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.9 million

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Arcelor Mittal - MT - close: 85.64 chg: +0.31 stop: 78.24

Steel and metal stocks remain pockets of strength in the market. MT continues to see traders buying the dips. Our target is the $89.00-90.00 zone. The P&F chart is very bullish and just saw its price target jump from $101 to $113 this past week.

Picked on March 31 at $ 82.03 *triggered/gap open
Change since picked: + 3.61
Earnings Date 05/15/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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Potash Corp. - POT - close: 178.10 chg: +2.21 stop: 154.95

Aggressive momentum traders might want to consider new bullish positions if POT can breakout over $180. We do not want to chase the stock here. Shares have been very bullish but we'd rather buy a dip. We are going to adjust our suggested entry point to $170.50-167.50 and adjust our stop loss to $154.95. We're adjusting our targets to $184.00-185.00 and $194.00-200.00. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $218 target.

Picked on April 03 at $ xx.xx <--see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.7 million

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Research In Motion - RIMM - cls: 120.68 chg: +2.52 stop: 116.49

Strength in the NASDAQ certainly didn't hurt shares of RIMM. We remain bullish and today's bounce looks like a new entry point for calls. We're listing a short-term target at $125.00 and a secondary target in the $129.00-130.00 zone. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $130 target.

Picked on April 08 at $120.98
Change since picked: - 0.30
Earnings Date 06/26/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 22.3 million

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United States Oil - USO - close: 88.18 chg: -0.72 stop: 82.45

After yesterday's big rally oil and the USO took a break today. The trend remains higher. Our first target is the $92.50 mark. Our second, more aggressive target is the $97.50-100.00 zone.

Picked on April 07 at $ 86.49 *triggered/gap higher
Change since picked: + 1.69
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.4 million
 

Put Updates

Ambac Fincl. - ABK - cls: 5.27 change: -0.38 stop: n/a

ABK is seeing some momentum to the downside. Shares lost 6.7% and are nearing their January lows near $5.00. We are not suggesting new bearish positions in ABK. This remains a very speculative play. We will definitely hold over the April earnings if we get the chance. Previously we had been suggesting the May out-of-the money puts ($5.00 and $2.50 strikes).

Picked on January 27 at $ 11.54
Change since picked: - 6.27
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 10.9 million

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Fannie Mae - FNM - close: 26.53 chg: -1.59 stop: 31.11 *new*

The sell-off in FNM is also picking up speed. Shares lost another 5.6% today and is down 8.5% since we added it to the newsletter. We are adjusting the stop loss to $31.11. We are listing two targets. Our first target is the $25.25-25.00 zone. Our second target is the $21.00-20.00 zone.

Picked on April 08 at $ 29.00
Change since picked: - 2.47
Earnings Date 05/27/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 26.5 million

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Humana Inc - HUM - cls: 44.18 chg: +1.42 stop: 46.21

HUM is displaying a lot of volatility. The stock was down up sharply Tuesday, down again Wednesday and now bouncing again, up 3.3% today. We did not see any specific news to account for today's strength. Watch for this bounce to roll over in the $44.50-45.00 zone and use it as a new entry point. Our target is the $40.50-40.00 zone. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. Currently the P&F chart is so bearish it points to a target of zero ($0.00).

Picked on March 30 at $ 45.20
Change since picked: - 1.02
Earnings Date 04/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.4 million

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Juniper Networks - JNPR - cls: 23.31 chg: +0.34 stop: 24.55

JNPR received some relatively positive analyst comments today and the stock produced a 1.3% bounce, which was good enough to out perform the NASDAQ (barely) and the NWX networking index. Watch for a failed rally under $24.00 as a new entry point for puts. Our target is the $20.15-20.00 zone. The move under $23.00 has reversed the P&F chart into a new sell signal with a $16.00 target. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on April 09 at $ 22.95 triggered
Change since picked: + 0.36
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 11.5 million

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MBIA Inc. - MBI - close: 11.89 change: -0.08 stop: n/a

MBI did better than its rival ABK today but the trend is still down. We are not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. We had been suggesting the out-of-the-money May puts (7.50, 5.00 and 2.50 strikes).

Picked on January 27 at $ 14.20
Change since picked: - 2.31
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 15.2 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Goldman Sachs - GS - cls: 170.55 chg: -3.59 stop: n/a

There were some headlines out of GS today with management quoted as saying we're in the last innings of the credit crisis game but that failed to save the financials. The financial stocks were the worst performers today and GS lost more than 2%. If GS bounces we are narrowing our suggested range to launch strangles to $173.00-177.00 and the closer to $175 the better. The options we suggested for this strangle were the May $190 calls (GPY-ER) and the May $160 puts (GPY-QL). Our estimated cost was $8.70. We want to sell if either option trades at $14.50 or higher.

Picked on April 06 at $175.40
Change since picked: - 4.85
Earnings Date 06/12/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 14.5 million
 

Dropped Calls

None
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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