Aracruz Celulose - ARA - cls: 83.75 chg: +2.24 stop: 78.75 *new*
Target achieved. ARA rallied to another new high hitting $84.70 at its best levels of the day. Our first target was the $84.50-85.00 range. We remain bullish but we're not suggesting new positions at this moment. Look for a dip back toward the $81.00 region before considering new positions. We are raising our stop loss to $78.75. Our second target is the $88.50-90.00 zone. As expected the rally over $80.00 did produce a new P&F chart buy signal, which currently points to a $94 target.
Picked on April 28 at $ 80.25 *1st target hit $84.50
CF Ind. - CF - close: 138.41 chg: +3.66 stop: 126.45
Monday's afternoon bounce continued into Tuesday and CF has now closed above its 10-dma. Shares posted a 3% gain and are challenging the $140 level. More conservative traders could wait for a rally over $140 as their entry point. We are using a wide (aggressive, high-risk) stop loss under Thursday's low. You may want to use a much tighter stop loss but remember this can be a very volatile group. Our target is the $155.00-160.00 range. FYI: CF is due to present at two different investor/analyst conferences this week on May 6th and May 7th.
Picked on May 05 at $137.50 *triggered
Cytec Ind. - CYT - close: 60.85 change: +1.48 stop: 57.95
It looks like our patience with CYT might pay off. The stock rallied almost 2.5% and broke through its short-term pattern of lower highs. CYT still has to make it past technical resistance at its 200-dma near $61.00 but we remain bullish here and see this as a new entry point. The $60.00 mark should now be short-term support. We have to label this a more aggressive play because the spreads on the options are pretty wide. There isn't much we as traders can do about that except try to minimize its impact with good entry and exit strategy. We're listing two targets. Our first target is the $64.75-65.00 range. Our second target is the $68.00-70.00 zone.
Picked on April 27 at $ 60.64
Gilead Sciences - GILD - close: 54.14 chg: +0.47 stop: 49.99
GILD marches higher. Shares closed at yet another new high. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. We're suggesting readers looking for new entry points buy calls on a dip in the $53.00-52.00 zone. Our target is the $57.50-60.00 range. Don't forget that any time we play a biotech company it should be considered an aggressive, higher-risk trade. There is always risk of some FDA decision or clinical trial result surprising the market and sending the stock gapping one direction or the other.
Picked on May 04 at $ 53.63
HSBC - HBC - close: 87.26 change: +0.11 stop: 84.90
Financial stocks bounced today so HBC recovered quickly after being downgraded to neutral by UBS. Traders bought the dip near $86 and its 200-dma. We had been suggesting that readers use a dip in the $86.50-86.00 zone as a new entry point. We have two targets. Our short-term target is the $89.75-90.00 range. Our more aggressive, longer-term target is the $94.00-95.00 zone. The P&F chart is bullish with a $113 target.
Picked on April 28 at $ 86.19 *triggered/gap higher
Home Depot - HD - close: 29.28 chg: -0.09 stop: 28.69 *new*
HD under performed the market on Tuesday but traders bought the dip near its rising 30-dma, which has been support for the last few weeks. We are altering our strategy and suggesting readers buy this bounce today. We'll change our stop loss to $28.69, just under today's low. Yes, HD still has resistance near $30.00 and its 200-dma but if the market continues higher we expect HD to break out. More conservative traders can wait for our original trigger point at $30.55. Our target remains the $34.00-35.00 zone. We do not want to hold over the May 20th earnings report.
Picked on May 06 at $ 29.28 *new entry point
Hovnanian - HOV - close: 11.87 chg: +0.02 stop: 10.74
In spite of another dismal earnings report inside the homebuilding sector and negative news out from Fannie Mae (FNM) the homebuilders rallied. The DJUSHB added almost 2%. Shares of HOV did under perform its peers but the stock continues to bounce along its rising trendline of higher lows. Today's move looks like another entry point but more conservative traders may want to wait for a rally through resistance near $12.50 first. We have two targets. Our first target is the $13.50-14.00 zone. Our second, more aggressive target is the $14.75-15.00 zone. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $25 target. HOV still has a high amount of short interest. The most recent data listed short interest at almost 65% of the 37.2 million-share float. That really raises the odds of a short squeeze, which would be great for us. Don't forget that we do not want to hold over the late May earnings report.
Picked on April 16 at $ 11.86
Harsco - HSC - close: 62.46 change: +0.86 stop: 57.99
The bounce in HSC continues. The stock added almost 1.4% on Tuesday. The MACD indicator on the daily chart has turned positive again. HSC is quickly approaching potential resistance at $63.00 so don't be surprised to see a pull back. The $60.00 level should be short-term support. Our four-week target is the $64.50-65.00 range.
Picked on May 01 at $ 60.38
Intl.Bus.Mach. - IBM - cls: 122.82 chg: +0.79 stop: 118.49
IBM did bounce but the result seemed rather anemic. The stock failed to breakout past its 10-dma. Although on the positive side shares did rebound from the $120.75 zone again. We remain bullish and would still consider buying calls in the $121.00-120.00 zone. More conservative traders might want to cinch up their stops toward $120, which should be new support. We have two targets. Our first target is the $124.90-125.00 range. Our second target is the $128.00-130.00 zone.
Picked on April 30 at $120.75 *triggered
iShares Russ.2000 - IWM - cls: 72.86 chg: +0.59 stop: 69.49
The Russell 2000 small cap index rebounded with the markets and this lead the IWM to a 0.8% gain. The equity has done a pretty good job of rebounding from its trendline of higher lows. Our four to six-week target is the $77.50-80.00 zone. The P&F chart is bullish with an $87 target.
Picked on April 28 at $ 72.55 *triggered
iShares DJ Transports - IYT - cls: 96.05 chg: +1.49 stop: 91.48*new*
The transports continue to impress with another gain in the face of yet another record day for crude oil. The IYT added 1.5% and crossed the $95 and $96 levels again. We are raising our stop loss to $91.48. Our eight-week target is the $98.00-100.00 zone. IYT has already surpassed our first target in the $94.85-95.00 zone.
Picked on April 27 at $ 91.48 /1st target exceeded
Joy Global - JOYG - close: 79.08 chg: +0.44 stop: 74.45 *new*
It was a volatile day for shares of JOYG. The stock gapped open lower and spiked to $74.76 before bouncing back into the green. This morning's weakness was fueled by an announcement from JOYG where management issued an earnings warning. JOYG states that additional charges related to their acquisition of Continental Global and charges for terminating a maintenance and repair contract are impacting earnings for the rest of 2008. We are going to raise our stop loss to $74.49. Our target is the $79.50-80.00 range. We are going to add a secondary target in the $84.00-85.00 zone. However, we will plan to exit ahead of the late May earnings report. The P&F chart is already bullish with an $88 target.
Picked on April 16 at $ 72.55 *triggered
Mosaic - MOS - close: 127.48 change: +2.69 stop: 115.49
MOS, like most of the fertilizer stocks today, rallied higher. The stock looks poised to challenge potential resistance at $130 tomorrow. Our first target is the $138.00-140.00 range. We are playing with a very wide, aggressive stop loss at $115.49, just under Thursday's low. You may want to use a tighter stop closer to $120.
Picked on May 05 at $126.75 *triggered/gap higher entry
Arcelor Mittal - MT - close: 94.29 chg: +3.39 stop: 87.99 *new*
MT turned in a great performance with a 3.7% gain and a new all-time high at $94.51. More conservative traders may want to take a little profit off the table right here. We're not suggesting new positions at this time but a dip back to the $91 region would qualify as a new entry point. We are raising our stop loss to $87.99. Our target is the $99.00-100.00 zone. The P&F chart is very bullish with a $116 target. Don't forget that we want to exit ahead of the earnings announcement (still unconfirmed but sometime this month).
Picked on May 05 at $ 90.25 *triggered
Nucor - NUE - close: 79.01 change: +2.16 stop: 73.99 *new*
Steel stocks continued to rally and NUE added 2.8%. The stock is nearing potential round-number resistance at the $80.00 mark. It's also nearing our first target at $79.50-80.00. Our second, more aggressive target is the $84.00-85.00 zone. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $93 target. FYI: We are raising our stop loss to $73.99.
Picked on April 22 at $ 74.63
POSCO - PKX - close: 128.25 change: +2.85 stop: 119.75
PKX enjoyed another strong day thanks to strength in the steel industry. If you're looking for a new entry point consider waiting for a dip into the $126-125 region. Our target is the $139.00-140.00 range. We should expect to see some overhead resistance at the 100-dma and exponential 200-dma near $130-133. NOTE: We would consider this a slightly more aggressive play for two reasons. First, PKX is prone to gap openings as the U.S. traded shares adjust to trading overseas the night before. Second, the spreads on the options are pretty wide and that immediately puts us, as option traders, at a disadvantage.
Picked on May 05 at $125.55 *triggered
Textron - TXT - cls: 62.02 change: +0.04 stop: 59.85
Hmmm... I'm starting to wonder if TXT will ever breakout. The stock keeps crawling higher and suggesting the next leg will be up. Volume on the stock is evaporating as traders wait for the next move to reveal itself. We're tempted to raise our stop loss toward $61.00 but we'll leave it at $59.85 for now. We are suggesting new positions right here but more conservative traders could wait for a new relative high over $62.50. Our short-term target is the $64.85-65.00 zone. Our secondary, more aggressive target is the $68.00-70.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with an $83 target. FYI: TXT is due to present at an investor conference on May 8th.
Picked on April 27 at $ 61.39
ImClone Sys. - IMCL - close: 45.50 change: -0.72 stop: 45.85
The recent bounce in shares of IMCL has completely reversed. The stock has broken down under short-term support near $46.00 and its trendline of higher lows. There is a chance that IMCL will bounce near the $45.00 level but we've been stopped out at $45.85. Technicals are turning negative pretty much across the board. If IMCL breaks under the $45 level it may portend a trip toward $40.00.
Picked on May 01 at $ 48.07 / stopped out 45.85