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Call Updates

Aracruz Celulose - ARA - cls: 82.03 chg: +0.69 stop: 78.75

It was a relatively quiet day for ARA. Traders continue to buy the dips and shares posted a 0.8% gain. The Brazilian stock market rebounded about 1% following yesterday's profit taking. We remain bullish on ARA. We had been suggesting a bounce near $80 as a new entry point but the low today was only $80.57. More conservative traders might want to tighten stops even further toward the $80.00 mark. Shares of ARA have already hit our first target at $84.50. Our second target is the $88.50-90.00 zone. As expected the rally over $80.00 did produce a new P&F chart buy signal, which currently points to a $94 target.

Picked on April 28 at $ 80.25 *1st target hit $84.50
Change since picked: + 1.50
Earnings Date 04/07/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 481 thousand

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CNOOC - CEO - close: 180.67 change: +5.07 stop: 172.49

Oil and energy stocks were out performers today as crude oil hit another new high. Shares of CEO rebounded back above the $180 level, which we suggested would be a new entry point to buy calls. We would still consider new positions right here. Our target is the $199.00-200.00 range. FYI: We have to label this a more aggressive play because the option spreads are so wide!

Picked on May 06 at $183.47
Change since picked: - 2.80
Earnings Date 04/28/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 548 thousand

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CF Ind. - CF - close: 137.47 chg: +1.78 stop: 126.45

The fertilizer group experienced a rebound today as bulls bought the dip this morning. CF got some positive comments on CNBC midday. The stock rallied from its lows near $132 and closed with a 1.3% gain. We see this as a new entry point to buy calls. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop loss toward $130.00 or toward today's low near $132.00. We are using a wide (aggressive, high-risk) stop loss under last Thursday's low. Our target is the $155.00-160.00 range. FYI: CF just announced that its annual shareholder meeting will be held on Tuesday, May 13th.

Picked on May 05 at $137.50 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.03
Earnings Date 04/27/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.1 million

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Cytec Ind. - CYT - close: 60.99 change: +0.49 stop: 57.95

The action in CYT today looks bullish. Traders bought the dip near its rising 10-dma and the stock closed just above technical resistance at its 200-dma. More conservative traders might want to consider a tighter stop near $59.00 or under today's low at $59.70. We have to label this a more aggressive play because the spreads on the options are pretty wide. There isn't much we as traders can do about that except try to minimize its impact with good entry and exit strategy. We're listing two targets. Our first target is the $64.75-65.00 range. Our second target is the $68.00-70.00 zone.

Picked on April 27 at $ 60.64
Change since picked: + 0.35
Earnings Date 04/17/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 556 thousand

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Deere & Co. - DE - close: 86.82 change: +1.85 stop: 82.75

DE out performed the market today. Investors bought the dip here too and shares rallied past their 100-dma to close with a 2.1% gain. We would still consider new bullish call positions at current levels. We have two targets. Our first target is the $89.95-90.00 zone. Our second, more aggressive target is the $94.00-95.00 range. Our biggest challenge is time. DE is due to report earnings on May 14th before the market open. That only gives us a few trading days.

Picked on May 06 at $ 86.08
Change since picked: + 0.74
Earnings Date 05/14/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.3 million

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Fortune Brands - FO - close: 69.55 change: +0.75 stop: 67.95

The situation in FO is improving. There was no follow through on yesterday's ominous looking failed rally near $70.00. The stock rebounded and honestly it looks like a bullish entry point right now. However, we're sticking to our previous comments and suggesting readers wait for a new rally over $70.00 or $70.15 before initiating positions. If you're feeling a little aggressive you could jump in early above $69.75, which has been resistance in the past couple of weeks. Our target is the $74.00-75.00 range. The 200-dma is technical resistance near $75.00. The P&F chart is bullish with a $95 target.

FYI: Our original play description on FO listed the January calls option symbols in error. We are suggesting the June calls, specifically the June 65s (FO-FM), June 70s (FO-FN), or the June 75s (FO-FO).

Picked on May 07 at $ 70.05 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.50
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 971 thousand

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Gilead Sciences - GILD - close: 54.11 chg: +0.88 stop: 49.99

The BTK biotech index eked out an extremely small gain today. GILD out performed its peers with a 1.6% gain and a new intraday high. The good news today was the lack of follow through on yesterday's potentially bearish reversal pattern. We don't see any big changes from our previous comments. We were suggesting readers buy dips in the $53.00-52.00 zone but we'd probably change that to the $53.75-53.50 zone. Our target is the $57.50-60.00 range. Don't forget that any time we play a biotech company it should be considered an aggressive, higher-risk trade. There is always risk of some FDA decision or clinical trial result surprising the market and sending the stock gapping one direction or the other.

Picked on May 04 at $ 53.63
Change since picked: + 0.48
Earnings Date 04/16/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.9 million

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HSBC - HBC - close: 86.06 change: +0.45 stop: 84.90

The financial sector continued to under perform the market. HBC managed to out do its peers but the stock looks like it will test the $85.50-85.00 zone again. A dip near $85 can be used as a new entry point. We have two targets. Our short-term target is the $89.75-90.00 range. Our more aggressive, longer-term target is the $94.00-95.00 zone. The P&F chart is bullish with a $113 target.

Picked on April 28 at $ 86.19 *triggered/gap higher
Change since picked: - 0.15
Earnings Date 03/08/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million

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Harsco - HSC - close: 61.20 change: +0.33 stop: 59.45

It was a relatively quiet day for HSC. The stock spent the day trading sideways. Bulls can take comfort in the lack of follow through on yesterday's bearish reversal-like action. HSC is still facing a potential bearish double-top pattern but a bounce from here would be a big positive. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops closer to the $60.00 level. Our four-week target is the $64.50-65.00 range.

Picked on May 01 at $ 60.38
Change since picked: + 0.82
Earnings Date 04/22/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 613 thousand

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Intl.Bus.Mach. - IBM - cls: 124.92 chg: +0.78 stop: 119.75

IBM continues to look strong here. The stock appears to be coiling sideways as it gathers strength to spring past resistance at the $125.00 level. Shares actually hit $125.17 intraday. A new rise past $125.25 could be used as a new entry point for calls although if you open positions now we'd suggest aiming for the $130.00 level (and using a tighter stop). IBM has already hit our target at $124.90. Our second target is the $128.00-130.00 range.

Picked on April 30 at $120.75 */1st target achieved 124.90
Change since picked: + 4.17
Earnings Date 04/16/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.8 million

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iShares Russ.2000 - IWM - cls: 71.71 chg: +0.15 stop: 69.85

The small caps actually kept pace with the broader market. We are starting to see some conflicting short-term technical signals but the intermediate trend remains positive. Another dip or bounce in the $71.00-71.25 zone could be used as a new entry point. Our four to six-week target is the $77.50-80.00 zone. The P&F chart is bullish with an $87 target.

Picked on April 28 at $ 72.55 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.84
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 84.6 million

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iShares DJ Transports - IYT - cls: 93.42 chg: +0.31 stop: 91.48

Yesterday the situation was looking grim for the transports. The sector had produced a couple of bearish signals. While today's lack of follow through lower is encouraging we're not out of the woods yet. We're not suggesting new positions. Our eight-week target is the $98.00-100.00 zone. IYT has already surpassed our first target in the $94.85-95.00 zone.

Picked on April 27 at $ 91.48 /1st target exceeded
Change since picked: + 1.94
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million

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Joy Global - JOYG - close: 77.50 chg: +1.83 stop: 74.45

JOYG enjoyed a nice rebound with a 2.39% gain. The trend is still up so we don't see any changes. Our target has been the $79.50-80.00 range. We're not suggesting new positions. We do have a secondary, more aggressive target in the $84.00-85.00 range. However, we will plan to exit ahead of the late May earnings report. The P&F chart is already bullish with an $88 target.

Picked on April 16 at $ 72.55 *triggered
Change since picked: + 4.95
Earnings Date 05/29/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million

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Mosaic - MOS - close: 127.08 change: +2.43 stop: 115.49

MOS, like most of the fertilizer stocks, rallied sharply from their intraday lows this morning. MOS ended the day up 1.9% and looks poised to move higher tomorrow. We see this bounce as a new entry point to buy calls. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stop loss toward $120.00 or today's low near $121.00. Our first target is the $138.00-140.00 range. We are playing with a very wide, aggressive stop loss at $115.49, just under last Thursday's low.

Picked on May 05 at $126.75 *triggered/gap higher entry
Change since picked: + 0.33
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.4 million

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Arcelor Mittal - MT - close: 96.02 chg: +3.88 stop: 89.99*new*

Steel stocks were market leaders on Thursday. Shares of MT helped lead the charge with a 4.2% gain on decent volume. More conservative traders might want to lock in some profits right here. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Please note we're adjusting the stop loss to $89.99. Our target is the $99.00-100.00 zone. The P&F chart is very bullish with a $116 target. Don't forget that we want to exit ahead of the earnings announcement (still unconfirmed but sometime this month).

Picked on May 05 at $ 90.25 *triggered
Change since picked: + 5.77
Earnings Date 05/14/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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Nucor - NUE - close: 81.87 change: +3.30 stop: 75.95 *new*

NUE is another steel stock that is soaring to new highs. Shares of NUE rallied toward the $82.00 level and closed the day with a 4.2% gain. We suggest that readers consider taking some money off the table here. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our new stop loss is $75.95. NUE has already exceeded our target at $79.50. Our second, more aggressive target is the $84.00-85.00 zone. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $93 target.

Picked on April 22 at $ 74.63 /1st target exceeded 79.50
Change since picked: + 7.24
Earnings Date 04/17/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.6 million

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POSCO - PKX - close: 128.69 change: +5.60 stop: 119.75

PKX erased yesterday's losses with a 4.5% rebound today. A number of steel-related stocks are trading at new highs and PKX has plenty of room to try and "catch up" with its peers. The 100-dma near $131 might offer some overhead resistance but readers can use dips near $125 as a new entry point. Our target is the $139.00-140.00 range. NOTE: We would consider this a slightly more aggressive play for two reasons. First, PKX is prone to gap openings as the U.S. traded shares adjust to trading overseas the night before. Second, the spreads on the options are pretty wide and that immediately puts us, as option traders, at a disadvantage.

Picked on May 05 at $125.55 *triggered
Change since picked: + 3.14
Earnings Date 07/16/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 907 thousand
 

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