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Call Updates

AGCO Corp. - AG - close: 57.51 change: -2.54 stop: 57.75

Once again the quote services are suffering from a bad tick. They say that AG hit an intraday high of $61.01 but if you check the time and sales today you'll see that AG did not trade that high. Shares have not yet hit our trigger at $60.40 so we're still on the sidelines. The stock reversed lower as investors sold the news to Deere (DE)'s earnings report. We're still waiting for a real breakout but we would seriously consider buying a bounce near $55.00 with a very tight stop. If triggered at $60.40 our short-term target is the $64.90-65.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $71 target.

Picked on      May xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           04/28/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.8 million  

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Aracruz Celulose - ARA - cls: 86.36 chg: +0.67 stop: 79.45      

We strongly suggest that readers do some profit taking in ARA. The stock rallied to $88.14 and then reversed sharply. Shares now look poised to dip toward the $84-83 zone. We're not suggesting new positions. ARA has exceeded our target in the $84.50 zone and came very close to our second target at $88.50-90.00.

Picked on    April 28 at $ 80.25 *1st target hit $84.50
Change since picked:      + 7.45
Earnings Date           04/07/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       481 thousand

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CNOOC - CEO - close: 187.81 change: +3.06 stop: 174.75

CEO displayed relative strength today with a breakout over $185.00. Shares rallied to $190.59 before paring their gains. If you're looking for a new entry point then broken resistance near $185 should be new support. Our target is the $199.00-200.00 range. FYI: We have to label this a more aggressive play because the option spreads are so wide!

Picked on      May 06 at $183.47
Change since picked:      + 4.34
Earnings Date           04/28/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       548 thousand

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CF Ind. - CF - close: 136.27 chg: -0.77 stop: 129.90

This morning almost all of the fertilizer stocks were trading higher but the group reversed and closed back in its recent trading range. CF was no exception. This is short-term bearish. A dip back toward $132-130 may be in the cards. Our target is the $155.00-160.00 range.

Picked on      May 05 at $137.50 *triggered      
Change since picked:      - 1.23
Earnings Date           04/27/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       3.1 million  

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Carbo Ceramics - CRR - close: 47.78 change: -1.36 stop: 44.89

After four days of gains CRR hit some profit taking and gave back 2.7%. A dip or a bounce near $46.80 could be used as a new entry point but to be honest you may want to wait for a potential pull back toward $46.00. We're aiming for the $52.00-52.50 zone.

Picked on      May 11 at $ 47.45
Change since picked:      + 0.33
Earnings Date           04/24/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       303 thousand

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Cytec Ind. - CYT - close: 62.22 change: +0.45 stop: 58.45      

CYT is still showing relative strength and the stock hit a new four-month high on an intraday basis. We're not suggesting new positions at current levels. More conservative traders could inch up their stops. We're listing two targets. Our first target is the $64.75-65.00 range. Our second target is the $68.00-70.00 zone. We have to label this a more aggressive play because the spreads on the options are pretty wide. There isn't much we as traders can do about that except try to minimize its impact with good entry and exit strategy.

Picked on    April 27 at $ 60.64
Change since picked:      + 1.58
Earnings Date           04/17/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       556 thousand

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Express Scipts - ESRX - close: 72.90 chg: -0.41 stop: 68.19

ESRX posted another gain but we suspect that shares are poised for a dip back toward $72.00 or $71.00. Use a dip as a new entry point. We do expect some resistance at $74.25 but our target is the $77.00-80.00 range. More conservative traders will want to consider taking some profits off the table near $75.00. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $81 target.

Picked on      May 08 at $ 70.96
Change since picked:      + 1.94
Earnings Date           04/29/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       2.8 million  

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Fortune Brands - FO - close: 70.91 change: +0.81 stop: 67.95

FO shot higher this morning with a spike to $71.50. The stock tested this level again later in the afternoon only to pull back with the market's widespread afternoon slide. We're still bullish but look for a dip near $70.00 as a new entry point. Broken resistance at $70 should be new support. Our target is the $74.00-75.00 range. The 200-dma is technical resistance near $75.00. The P&F chart is bullish with a $95 target.

Picked on      May 07 at $ 70.05 *triggered
Change since picked:      + 0.86
Earnings Date           04/24/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       971 thousand

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Foster Wheeler - FWLT - cls: 74.04 chg: -1.26 stop: 69.45     

After Tuesday's big rally it's not a surprise to see some selling in FWLT. If we see another dip toward $70.00, which should be support, use it as a new entry point. FWLT has already exceeded our initial target at $74.90. Our secondary target is the $79.50-80.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with an $84 target.

Picked on      May 13 at $ 71.46 *gap higher entry/1st target hit
Change since picked:      + 2.58
Earnings Date           05/07/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       3.4 million  

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Gilead Sciences - GILD - close: 52.56 chg: -0.91 stop: 51.90 *new*

We're growing uncomfortable with the relative weakness in GILD. The stock's upward momentum has stalled and we're seeing a bearish divergence between price and its daily MACD. We would consider an early exit now but we'll wait for a potential bounce tomorrow and exit on a bounce. Our new stop loss is $51.90.

Picked on      May 04 at $ 53.63
Change since picked:      - 1.07
Earnings Date           04/16/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       8.9 million  

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Harsco - HSC - close: 62.14 change: -0.43 stop: 59.85      

HSC briefly traded over resistance at $63.00 today. Unfortunately, the stock gave back all of its gains during the market's afternoon sell-off. A bounce near $61.00 could be used as a new entry point. Our four-week target is the $64.50-65.00 range.

Picked on      May 01 at $ 60.38
Change since picked:      + 1.76
Earnings Date           04/22/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       613 thousand

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Intl.Bus.Mach. - IBM - cls: 127.52 chg: +0.94 stop: 120.75      

If you are using our old targets then today you can declare "target achieved". IBM hit $128.83 before correcting. Our old target was $128.00. A few days ago we altered our secondary target to $129.50. Readers may still want to some profit taking anyway!

Picked on    April 30 at $120.75 */1st target achieved 124.90
Change since picked:      + 6.77
Earnings Date           04/16/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       8.8 million  

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iShares Russ.2000 - IWM - cls: 73.40 chg: -0.09 stop: 69.85      

We have nothing exciting to report here. IWM hit an intraday high of $74.35 and then gave back all of its gains. We would seriously consider raising the stop loss closer to $71.00, which should be short-term support. We're not suggesting new positions. Our multi-week target is the $77.50-80.00 zone. The P&F chart is bullish with an $87 target.

Picked on    April 28 at $ 72.55 *triggered     
Change since picked:      + 0.85
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =      84.6 million  

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Joy Global - JOYG - close: 77.00 chg: -2.28 stop: 74.99      

If you haven't done any profit taking in your JOYG calls you'd better hurry. The stock lost 2.8% today and looks headed for the $76-75 zone. The weekly chart's current candlestick looks like an ominous failed rally at $80.00. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our secondary, more aggressive target is the $84.00-85.00 range. We will plan to exit ahead of the late May earnings report. The P&F chart is already bullish with an $88 target.

Picked on    April 16 at $ 72.55 */ fist target exceeded
Change since picked:      + 4.45
Earnings Date           05/29/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       2.3 million  

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Mosaic - MOS - close: 125.16 change: -0.09 stop: 119.75      

MOS is another fertilizer stock that lost its early gains and closed fractionally lower. The trading today is a clear failed rally at the $130.00 level. This is definitely short-term bearish but the stock is back to its old trading range. A dip toward $123.00-120.00 is a good possibility. Our first target is the $138.00-140.00 range.

Picked on      May 05 at $126.75 *triggered/gap higher entry
Change since picked:      - 1.59
Earnings Date           07/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       7.4 million  

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Nucor - NUE - close: 79.99 change: -1.40 stop: 75.95

Here's another one... if you haven't taken any profits yet you'd better hurry. NUE has exceeded our target near $80 several times but can't quite get to $84.00, our second target. The $82.00 level has been overhead resistance. Today's action looks like a short-term bearish reversal and NUE could dip back toward $78 or worse.

Picked on    April 22 at $ 74.63 /1st target exceeded 79.50
Change since picked:      + 5.36
Earnings Date           04/17/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       5.6 million  

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Oil Services HOLDRs - OIH - close: 202.62 chg: -4.16 stop: 199.00

Our aggressive play in the OIH is displaying some volatility. Crude oil didn't move much on today's inventory report but the oil service stocks plunged late in the day with the rest of the market. We would look for a bounce near $200 as a new bullish entry point to buy calls. Our current target is $219.00-220.00. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is forecasting a staggering $306 price target.

Picked on      May 13 at $206.78
Change since picked:      - 4.16
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       7.1 million  

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POSCO - PKX - close: 132.00 change: -0.69 stop: 122.35 *new*

PKX rallied to another new relative high and above its exponential 200-dma on an intraday basis. You could argue that PKX has some resistance near $135 and today's move above $134 might be close enough to spark some profit taking. A dip in the $127-125 zone could be used as a new entry point. We're raising our stop loss to $122.35, which is under last week's low. More conservative traders might want their stop closer to $125. Our target is the $139.00-140.00 range. NOTE: We would consider this a slightly more aggressive play for two reasons. First, PKX is prone to gap openings as the U.S. traded shares adjust to trading overseas the night before. Second, the spreads on the options are pretty wide and that immediately puts us, as option traders, at a disadvantage.

Picked on      May 05 at $125.55 *triggered      
Change since picked:      + 5.07
Earnings Date           07/16/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       907 thousand

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Reliance Steel - RS - close: 66.24 chg: +0.49 stop: 59.99

We're still waiting for a dip in RS. Yesterday we discussed our concern that RS could just run away from us. It certainly looked that way this morning with a rally to $68. However, the stock returned most of its gains and today's performance has a failed rally look to it. We're waiting for a dip. Our suggested entry point is a pull back into the $64.75-64.00 zone. If triggered we're setting two targets. Our first target is the $69.50-70.00 range. Our secondary, more aggressive target is the $73.00-75.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $73 target.

Picked on      May xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           04/17/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       851 thousand 

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