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Call Updates

Peabody Energy - BTU - close: 77.52 change: +3.60 stop: 70.85

Coal stocks were on fire today after some positive analyst comments this morning about the rising price of coal. One analyst raised their forecast on metallurgical coal by 90% to $130 per ton in 2009 and to $250 per ton in 2010. He also raised his price forecast on steam coal, burned to create electricity, by another 25%. All the major coal stocks took off. Shares of BTU opened at $73.75 and rallied to $79.00 intraday. Our first target is the $79.75-80.00 zone. We're adding a second target in the $84.00-85.00 range but strongly suggest that readers take some profits near $80.

Picked on June 01 at $ 73.92
Change since picked: + 3.60
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.8 million

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Garmin Ltd. - GRMN - close: 50.57 chg: +1.92 stop: 45.95 *new*

GRMN really out performed the market today. The stock rallied 3.9% following Friday's breakout over the 50-dma. The stock actually closed above the mid May high. We are raising our stop loss to $45.95. Our target is the $54.00-55.00 zone or the 100-dma, whichever is hit first. FYI: The most recent data, which may be out of date, listed short interest at more than 15% of GRMN's 114 million-share float. GRMN could still see a short squeeze. GRMN's P&F chart is bullish with a $71 target.

Picked on June 01 at $ 48.65
Change since picked: + 1.92
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.6 million

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Harsco - HSC - close: 62.87 change: -0.45 stop: 60.45

We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. HSC current challenge is to breakout past the May highs. We're not suggesting new bullish positions in HSC at this time. Our target is the $64.50-65.00 range but more aggressive traders may want to aim higher.

Picked on May 01 at $ 60.38
Change since picked: + 2.49
Earnings Date 04/22/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 613 thousand

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iShares Russ.2000 - IWM - cls: 73.99 chg: -0.68 stop: 71.70

The Russell 2000 small cap index followed the rest of the market lower. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. We had been suggesting that more conservative traders may want to exit or take profits in the $74.50-75.00 zone. Right now our target is the $77.50-80.00 zone. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. FYI: The Point & Figure chart's bullish price target has moved from $87 to $96.

Picked on April 28 at $ 72.55 *triggered
Change since picked: + 1.44
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 84.6 million

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Natl. Oilwell Varco - NOV - cls: 83.80 chg: +0.48 stop: 78.69

It was another bumpy day for oil prices but by the closing bell both oil and the oil sector were higher. If we get the chance another dip in the $82-81 zone could be used as a new entry point. NOV did provide a dip to $82.00 this morning. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops closer to $80.00. Our target is the $88.50-90.00 zone. The P&F chart is bullish with a $105 target.

Picked on May 28 at $ 83.15
Change since picked: + 0.65
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.4 million

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Priceline.com - PCLN - close: 132.76 chg: -1.77 stop: 127.99

This looks like a new bullish entry point in PCLN. The stock fell toward support near $130 and traded there for most of the morning before finally beginning to recover. The afternoon bounce looks like an entry point to buy calls. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. The intraday low was $129.80. Our target is the $139.50-140.00 zone.

Picked on May 27 at $132.75 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.01
Earnings Date 05/08/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million

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POSCO - PKX - close: 139.00 change: +2.35 stop: 133.95 *new*

PKX displayed some relative strength with a spike to $140.61 before settling with a 1.7% gain. Shares are nearing our target in the $143.00-145.00 zone. We are raising our stop loss to $133.95. This is an aggressive higher-risk play. PKX tends to gap open every morning as it adjusts to trade in Korea. Plus, the option spreads tend to be a little wide. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $212 target.

Picked on May 27 at $133.26
Change since picked: + 5.74
Earnings Date 07/14/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 733 thousand

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Molson-Coors Brewing - TAP - cls: 57.72 chg: -0.28 stop: 55.95

TAP failed to make any progress but neither was it subjected to any serious intraday sell-offs. We would consider buying dips to the $57.00-56.75 zone. If you prefer to buy on momentum then wait for a new relative high (above 59.51). Our target is the $64.00-65.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $69 target.

Picked on May 23 at $ 58.51 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.79
Earnings Date 08/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
 

Put Updates

Avalonbay - AVB - close: 98.83 change: -2.37 stop: 102.85

Investor concerns for the financial sector also influenced the REITs. Shares of AVB lost 2.3% and the stock tested short-term support near $98.00. A failed rally in the $100-102 zone could be used as another entry point. We have two targets. Our short-term target is the 100-dma near $97.13. We'll use the $97.25-97.00 zone as our first target to take some profits. Our second target is the $92.50 zone. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $90 target. FYI: We do qualify this as a slightly more aggressive play because the REIT stocks like AVB can be volatile and the option spreads are a little wider than normal. Plus, the most recent data listed short interest at 16% of the 70 million-share float.

Picked on June 01 at $101.20
Change since picked: - 2.37
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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Kohls - KSS - close: 44.31 change: -0.49 stop: 45.65

Right on cue shares of KSS rolled over but the 1% decline could be chalked up to the market's weakness today. We remain bearish on the stock. We're suggesting a tight stop loss. If we're wrong we should be taken out quickly. Our target is the $40.50-40.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $35 target.

Picked on June 01 at $ 44.80
Change since picked: - 0.49
Earnings Date 08/14/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.1 million

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3M Co. - MMM - close: 76.25 chg: -1.31 stop: 77.01

MMM displayed some relative weakness with a 1.6% decline but shares are still above support. We are still waiting for MMM to breakdown under support near $75.00. Our suggested trigger to buy puts is at $74.95. If triggered our first target is the $70.25-70.00 zone. Our secondary target is the $66.00-65.00 range. The P&F chart is bearish with a $69 target."

Picked on May xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.0 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Amgen Inc. - AMGN - close: 44.22 chg: +0.19 stop: n/a

AMGN managed to shrug off any market weakness but the stock's post-ASCO reaction isn't very inspiring. The short-term trend is up and AMGN is trying to breakout over its 100-dma. We are not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. We have suggested a July strangle and a slightly more aggressive June strangle. The options in the July strangle are the July $45 calls (AMQ-GI) and the July $40 puts (AMQ-SH). Our estimated cost for the July strangle was $1.65. We want to sell if either option hits $3.50. The options in the June strangle are the June $45.00 calls (AMQ-FI) and the June $40.00 puts (AMQ-RH). Our estimated cost on the June strangle was $0.56. We want to sell if either option hits $1.10 or more. June options expire in less than three weeks.

Picked on May 22 at $ 42.77
Change since picked: + 1.45
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.7 million

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McDonald's - MCD - close: 58.55 chg: -0.77 stop: n/a

MCD fell quickly this morning but found support near $58 and its 50-dma. We are not suggesting new positions. We did not see any real headlines out of the Goldman Sachs conference that MCD was supposed to present at today. The options we suggested were the June $62.50 calls (MCD-FZ) and the June $57.50 puts (MCD-RY). Our estimated cost was $1.10. We want to sell if either option hits $1.65 or higher. More aggressive traders may want to raise their target. Keep in mind that June options expire in less than three weeks and will see their premium erode more quickly.

Picked on May 18 at $ 60.53
Change since picked: - 1.98
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.5 million
 

Dropped Calls

Martin Marietta - MLM - cls: 115.97 chg: -0.72 stop: 114.95

We are giving up on MLM. The last few days MLM has managed to hold above support at $115.00 and because of this more aggressive traders may want to hang on and keep their stop under support. We're exiting early now to cut our losses. Almost all of the short-term indicators are suggesting a breakdown and the stock produced yet another failed rally under its 10-dma today.

Picked on May 27 at $118.15 / exiting early
Change since picked: - 2.18
Earnings Date 05/06/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 561 thousand

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Oceaneering Intl. - OII - cls: 70.54 chg: -0.82 stop: 69.95

The rebound in OII continues to struggle and shares fell under support at $70.00 today. The intraday low was $69.75 hitting our stop at $69.95 on the way. We would keep an eye on OII. Watch to see if it bounces near technical support at the converging 50 and 200-dma near $67.50-68.00.

Picked on May 28 at $ 73.36 / stopped out 69.95
Change since picked: - 2.82
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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