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Call Updates

Peabody Energy - BTU - close: 77.39 change: -0.13 stop: 72.89*new*

Target exceeded. Coal provider BTU surged again on Tuesday. The stock rallied to an intraday high of $80.63 before paring its gains. Our initial target was the $79.75-80.00 zone. We hope readers took some profits as today's failed rally near its highs looks short-term bearish. The $75.00 level looks like it might be short-term support so more conservative traders may want to raise their stops appropriately. We are adjusting our stop loss to $72.89. Our more aggressive, second target is the $84.00-85.00 zone.

Picked on June 01 at $ 73.92 /1st target exceeded 79.75
Change since picked: + 3.47
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.8 million

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iShares Russ.2000 - IWM - cls: 73.84 chg: -0.15 stop: 71.70

The small caps did turn lower today but they performed better than the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Right now our target is the $77.50-80.00 zone. FYI: The Point & Figure chart's bullish price target has moved from $87 to $96.

Picked on April 28 at $ 72.55 *triggered
Change since picked: + 1.29
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 84.6 million

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Natl. Oilwell Varco - NOV - cls: 81.73 chg: -2.07 stop: 79.95*new*

Weakness in the major market averages combined with the recent failed rally in shares of NOV and the bulls may be in trouble. Short-term technical indicators for NOV are rolling over and growing more bearish. We are raising our stop loss to $79.95. More conservative traders may just want to cut their losses now and get out. We're not suggesting new positions. Keep an eye on oil. If oil can bounce from today's lows then NOV may get a second wind. Our target is the $88.50-90.00 zone. The P&F chart is bullish with a $105 target.

Picked on May 28 at $ 83.15
Change since picked: - 1.42
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.4 million

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Priceline.com - PCLN - close: 132.77 chg: +0.01 stop: 129.90 *new*

PCLN is actually holding up fairly well in the face of the market's two-day sell-off. PCLN is bouncing around the $130-135 zone. We're not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Please note that we are raising our stop loss to $129.90. Our target is the $139.50-140.00 zone.

Picked on May 27 at $132.75 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.02
Earnings Date 05/08/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million

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Molson-Coors Brewing - TAP - cls: 57.83 chg: +0.11 stop: 55.95

TAP is still going nowhere fast. If you're a glass is half-full kind of trader then the good news is that TAP did not participate in the market's weakness. Momentum is definitely waning so we're not inclined to suggest new bullish positions at this time. Our target is the $64.00-65.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $69 target.

Picked on May 23 at $ 58.51 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.68
Earnings Date 08/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
 

Put Updates

Avalonbay - AVB - close: 99.89 change: +1.06 stop: 102.85

AVB delivered a bit of an oversold bounce after yesterday's decline. If the stock is going to fill the gap from Monday morning then we could see a bounce back to $101. Wait for a failed rally in the $101-102 zone before considering new put plays. We have two targets. Our short-term target is the 100-dma near $97.13. We'll use the $97.25-97.00 zone as our first target to take some profits. Our second target is the $92.50 zone. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $90 target. FYI: We do qualify this as a slightly more aggressive play because the REIT stocks like AVB can be volatile and the option spreads are a little wider than normal. Plus, the most recent data listed short interest at 16% of the 70 million-share float.

Picked on June 01 at $101.20
Change since picked: - 1.31
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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Kohls - KSS - close: 44.74 change: +0.43 stop: 45.65

We don't see any real changes from our prior comments and would still consider bearish positions in KSS. We're suggesting a tight stop loss. If we're wrong we should be taken out quickly. Our target is the $40.50-40.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $35 target.

Picked on June 01 at $ 44.80
Change since picked: - 0.06
Earnings Date 08/14/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.1 million

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3M Co. - MMM - close: 76.23 chg: -0.02 stop: 77.01

MMM didn't do much. The intermediate trend is down while MMM continues to trade inside its trading range. We are still waiting for MMM to breakdown under support near $75.00. Our suggested trigger to buy puts is at $74.95. If triggered our first target is the $70.25-70.00 zone. Our secondary target is the $66.00-65.00 range. The P&F chart is bearish with a $69 target."

Picked on May xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.0 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Amgen Inc. - AMGN - close: 44.15 chg: -0.07 stop: n/a

The bounce in biotech was cut short by the widespread market weakness. AMGN just bounced around the $43.50-44.50 zone. We are not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. We have suggested a July strangle and a slightly more aggressive June strangle. The options in the July strangle are the July $45 calls (AMQ-GI) and the July $40 puts (AMQ-SH). Our estimated cost for the July strangle was $1.65. We want to sell if either option hits $3.50. The options in the June strangle are the June $45.00 calls (AMQ-FI) and the June $40.00 puts (AMQ-RH). Our estimated cost on the June strangle was $0.56. We want to sell if either option hits $1.10 or more. June options expire in less than three weeks.

Picked on May 22 at $ 42.77
Change since picked: + 1.38
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.7 million

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McDonald's - MCD - close: 57.56 chg: -0.99 stop: n/a

Tomorrow could be our day to exit. MCD broke down under its 50-dma, and its four-month trendline of support. The June $57.50 puts spiked to $1.40 intraday. If MCD continues lower tomorrow the puts could hit our target to exit at $1.65. We are not suggesting new positions. The options we suggested were the June $62.50 calls (MCD-FZ) and the June $57.50 puts (MCD-RY). Our estimated cost was $1.10. We want to sell if either option hits $1.65 or higher. More aggressive traders may want to raise their target. Keep in mind that June options expire in less than three weeks and will see their premium erode more quickly.

Picked on May 18 at $ 60.53
Change since picked: - 2.97
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.5 million
 

Dropped Calls

None
 

Dropped Puts

Garmin Ltd. - GRMN - close: 52.87 chg: +2.30 stop: 45.95

Target achieved. GRMN bucked the market's trend and continued to rally. The stock posted a 4.5% gain on top of yesterday's 3.9% gain. GRMN hit an intraday high of $54.91. Our target was the $54.00-55.00 zone. Technical traders will notice that the rally stalled under its 100-dma.

Picked on June 01 at $ 48.65 /target achieved 54.00
Change since picked: + 4.22
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.6 million

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Harsco - HSC - close: 63.61 change: +0.74 stop: 60.45

Target achieved. HSC soared this morning and traded to $64.75 before pulling back. Our target was the $64.50-65.00 zone. The general trend is still up but the failed rally under $65.00 is short-term bearish.

Picked on May 01 at $ 60.38 /target achieved 64.50
Change since picked: + 3.23
Earnings Date 04/22/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 613 thousand

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POSCO - PKX - close: 142.17 change: +3.17 stop: 133.95

Target exceeded. PKX continues to show relative strength. The stock soared to $145.43 before trimming its gains. Our upside target was the $143.00-145.00 zone. If you're a bull and you did not exit beware today's action. This might be considered a possible failed rally at its May highs and its 200-dma. That might be a double-whammy against further upside. However, we will note that the P&F chart has a (long-term) target of $212.

Picked on May 27 at $133.26 /target exceeded $143-145
Change since picked: + 8.91
Earnings Date 07/14/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 733 thousand
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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