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Call Updates

Peabody Energy - BTU - close: 74.05 change: -3.34 stop: 72.89

BTU was hammered today. The stock lost 4.3% one day after exceeding our target near $80.00. The stock is almost back where we started. The three-day pattern in BTU is bearish and more conservative traders will want to strongly consider an early exit right here. Our more aggressive, second target is the $84.00-85.00 zone.

Picked on June 01 at $ 73.92 /1st target exceeded 79.75
Change since picked: 0.13
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.8 million

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iShares Russ.2000 - IWM - cls: 74.30 chg: 0.46 stop: 71.70

Small cap stocks continue to out perform the large cap rivals in the S&P 500. The IWM rallied toward $75 before trimming its gains. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Last week we were suggesting more conservative traders take profits in the $74.50-75.00 zone. Right now our target is the $77.50-80.00 zone. FYI: The Point & Figure chart's bullish price target has moved from $87 to $96.

Picked on April 28 at $ 72.55 *triggered
Change since picked: 1.75
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 84.6 million

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Priceline.com - PCLN - close: 134.83 chg: 2.06 stop: 129.90

PCLN displayed some relative strength with a 1.5% gain. The stock actually hit $136.88 intraday. It certain acts like the stock wants to move higher if only the market would cooperate. Our target is the $139.50-140.00 zone.

Picked on May 27 at $132.75 *triggered
Change since picked: 2.08
Earnings Date 05/08/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million

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Molson-Coors Brewing - TAP - cls: 58.33 chg: 0.50 stop: 55.95

TAP spiked lower right at the open but traders bought the dip at $56.73. The stock rallied most of the day and hit $59.38 before retreating. The trend is bullish albeit the momentum has slowed. Readers may want to wait for a new relative high before initiating positions. Our target is the $64.00-65.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $69 target.

Picked on May 23 at $ 58.51 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.18
Earnings Date 08/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
 

Put Updates

Emerging Markets 50 ADR - ADRE - cls: 53.87 chg: -0.82 stop: 56.85

ADRE continued to sink and this ETF lost 1.49% before settling on its 50-dma. If ADRE is going to bounce we would look for one here at the 50-dma and at the 200-dma near $52.50. A failed rally under $56 could be used as a new entry point for puts if you don't feel like chasing it. We are going to aim for the $51.00-50.00 zone. FYI: The P&F chart is still bullish.

Picked on June 03 at $ 54.69
Change since picked: - 0.82
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 448 thousand

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Avalonbay - AVB - close: 100.22 change: 0.33 stop: 102.85

AVB delivered a minor oversold bounce but thus far hasn't broken its short-term trend of lower highs. Another bounce back toward $101.40 (today's high) might be a new entry point for puts. We have two targets. Our short-term target is the 100-dma near $97.54. We'll use the $97.65-97.50 zone as our first target to take some profits. Our second target is the $92.50 zone. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $90 target. FYI: We do qualify this as a slightly more aggressive play because the REIT stocks like AVB can be volatile and the option spreads are a little wider than normal. Plus, the most recent data listed short interest at 16% of the 70 million-share float.

Picked on June 01 at $101.20
Change since picked: - 0.98
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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Electronic Arts - ERTS - close: 48.93 chg: 0.36 stop: 50.25

ERTS is bouncing from the $48 region, again. We might consider buying puts on a failed rally near $50.50 but right now we're waiting for a new relative low. We're suggesting readers use a trigger to buy puts at $47.75. If triggered our target is the February lows in the $44.50-44.00 zone. We do consider this a more aggressive trade because ERTS still has a trendline of support it could bounce from. The P&F chart is still bullish.

Picked on June xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: 0.00
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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3M Co. - MMM - close: 76.36 chg: 0.13 stop: 77.01

There is no change from our previous comments on MMM although we do note what appears to be another lower high in the stock's bearish pattern. We are still waiting for MMM to breakdown under support near $75.00. Our suggested trigger to buy puts is at $74.95. If triggered our first target is the $70.25-70.00 zone. Our secondary target is the $66.00-65.00 range. The P&F chart is bearish with a $69 target."

Picked on June xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: 0.00
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.0 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Amgen Inc. - AMGN - close: 44.50 chg: 0.35 stop: n/a

AMGN continues to inch higher. The stock needs to cross the $45.00 level pretty soon if our June calls are going to have any hope. We are not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. We have suggested a July strangle and a slightly more aggressive June strangle. The options in the July strangle are the July $45 calls (AMQ-GI) and the July $40 puts (AMQ-SH). Our estimated cost for the July strangle was $1.65. We want to sell if either option hits $3.50. The options in the June strangle are the June $45.00 calls (AMQ-FI) and the June $40.00 puts (AMQ-RH). Our estimated cost on the June strangle was $0.56. We want to sell if either option hits $1.10 or more. June options expire in less than three weeks.

Picked on May 22 at $ 42.77
Change since picked: 1.73
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.7 million

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McDonald's - MCD - close: 57.98 chg: 0.42 stop: n/a

MCD served up an oversold bounce with a side of failed rally at its 50-dma. It's a bearish meal. Unless the major averages can move sharply higher we think MCD will continue to slide. We are not suggesting new positions. The options we suggested were the June $62.50 calls (MCD-FZ) and the June $57.50 puts (MCD-RY). Our estimated cost was $1.10. We want to sell if either option hits $1.65 or higher. More aggressive traders may want to raise their target. Keep in mind that June options expire in less than three weeks and will see their premium erode more quickly.

Picked on May 18 at $ 60.53
Change since picked: - 2.55
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.5 million

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Tyco Intl. - TYC - close: 44.85 change: -0.04 stop: n/a

TYC did not move much today and it gave us a great entry point to open new strangle positions with the back and forth moves around $45.00. We're suggesting readers open strangle plays in the $44.50-45.50 zone. The closer to $45.00 your entry point the better. Our biggest risk is that TYC just bounces sides in a $5.00 range the next several weeks. The options we suggested were the July $47.50 calls (TYC-GW) and the July $42.50 puts (TYC-SV). Our estimated cost was $1.30. We want to sell if either option hits $1.95 (50% gain).

Picked on June 03 at $ 44.89
Change since picked: 0.04
Earnings Date 08/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.9 million
 

Dropped Calls

Natl. Oilwell Varco - NOV - cls: 81.27 chg: -0.46 stop: 79.95

We are giving up on NOV and suggesting an early exit. Long-term we think NOV will move higher but short-term the momentum has stalled and NOV appears to have produced a bearish double top. Technical indicators are suggesting another pull back too.

Picked on May 28 at $ 83.15 /early exit 81.27
Change since picked: - 1.88
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.4 million

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Kohls - KSS - close: 45.24 change: 0.50 stop: 45.65

A buy rating from Merrill Lynch is probably why KSS rallied higher this morning. Shares hit $46.20 and tagged its 50-dma before paring its gains. This move may end up being another bearish entry point or part of a bear flag pattern but we've been stopped out at $45.65. We might consider buying puts again on a drop below $43.50.

Picked on June 01 at $ 44.80 /stopped out 45.65
Change since picked: 0.44
Earnings Date 08/14/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.1 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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