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Call Updates

Alliant Tech - ATK - close: 105.53 change: -1.58 stop: 102.95

News that ATK had won a $97 million ammo contract from the army did not boost the stock price. Shares under performed the market with a 1.4% loss. We see this dip back toward $105 as a new bullish entry point but since ATK closed near its lows for the session you may want to look for a bounce first tomorrow morning before initiating positions. We have two targets. The 200-dma is near $109.00. We're setting the first target at $108.75. Our second target is the $111.00 mark.

Picked on June 12 at $105.28
Change since picked: + 0.25
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 244 thousand

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Peabody Energy - BTU - close: 77.30 change: -0.29 stop: 74.90

It was another mixed session for coal stocks. Some where hitting new highs while others trended sideways. BTU was in the latter group and volume today was below average. We're still suggesting that readers tread cautiously here. The group as a whole continues to grow more overbought. Some of the technical indicators for BTU don't look that strong. This stock has exceeded our target near $80 several times. Our secondary target is the $84.00-85.00 zone.

Picked on June 01 at $ 73.92 /1st target exceeded 79.75
Change since picked: + 3.38
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.8 million

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Bucyrus - BUCY - close: 77.55 change: +2.14 stop: 71.65

BUCY continues to show relative strength. The stock added 2.8% and is challenging its highs near $78.00. If you don't want to chase it then wait for a pull back toward $75 again. We have two targets. Our first target is $79.85. Our second target is $83.50. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $92 target.

Picked on June 15 at $ 75.41
Change since picked: + 2.14
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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Diamonds - DIA - close: 122.66 change: -0.44 stop: 120.85

The rebound in the DJIA is already faltering. That's not a good sign. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $124.50 mark. However, keep a close eye on the $124.00 level. If DIA fails close to $124 we'll want to jump out. More aggressive traders could aim for the $125.00 level as their target. We're inching up our stop loss to $120.85.

Picked on June 12 at $121.63
Change since picked: + 1.03
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 12.9 million

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Research In Motion - RIMM - cls: 140.98 chg: +8.02 stop: 132.49*new*

Positive analyst comments over the weekend and again this morning helped boost shares of RIMM today. The note this morning raised RIMM's price target to $205. The stock reacted with a 6% rally. Our suggested entry point to buy calls was $136.05 so the play is now open. We have two targets. Our first target is $144.00. Our second target is $154.50. Please note that our stop loss is now $132.49.

Picked on June 16 at $136.05 *triggered
Change since picked: + 4.93
Earnings Date 06/25/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 16.7 million

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United States Oil - USO - close: 108.99 chg: -0.21 stop: 105.95

Crude oil spiked to a new high at $139.89 this morning and then promptly reversed. Crude oil had a $7.00 swing. The USO witnessed close to a $5.00 swing. The intraday low on the USO was $108.07. A bounce from here could be used as a new entry point. However, keep in mind that this is a very short-term play. Essentially this week only and we'll plan to exit on Friday if we don't hit our target. Our first target is the $114.90 mark. Our second target is $118.00. We strongly suggest you take some profits at the first target.

Picked on June 12 at $111.27
Change since picked: - 2.28
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 11.4 million
 

Put Updates

Emerging Markets 50 ADR - ADRE - cls: 52.61 chg: +0.24 stop: 55.01

the ADRE continues to bounce but has not yet broken above its 200-dma or 10-dam. We suspect that this ETF will bounce back to the $53.50-54.00 zone before rolling over again. If you are looking for a new entry point then wait for a failed rally under $54.00. We are adjusting the stop loss to $55.01. Our target is the $51.00-50.00 zone.

Picked on June 03 at $ 54.69
Change since picked: - 2.08
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 448 thousand

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Caterpillar - CAT - close: 80.91 change: -0.59 stop: 83.55

We remain bearish on CAT and readers could open new put positions here under $82.00. However, the bounce in the DJIA and the S&P 500 may not be over yet. Traders should remain cautious with the stock above $80.00. Our target is the $75.25 mark. The stock "should" see some technical support at its 200-dma near $75.00.

Picked on June 11 at $ 79.45 *triggered
Change since picked: + 1.46
Earnings Date 07/18/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.2 million

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Deere & Co. - DE - close: 80.60 change: +2.68 stop: 82.55

Positive analyst comments this morning, about long-term demand for farm equipment, fueled a sharp bounce in DE. The stock hit $81.22 intraday. We remain bearish here. A move back under $80.00 or under $79.50 would be a new entry point to buy puts. Our target is the $70.50 mark. The Point & Figure chart is forecasting a $72 target.

Picked on June 12 at $ 78.49 *triggered
Change since picked: + 2.11
Earnings Date 08/13/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.4 million

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DaVita Inc. - DVA - close: 50.26 chg: -0.21 stop: 53.01

There wasn't much follow through on DVA's big bounce on Friday. The best the bulls could do today was $50.54. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. We're suggesting readers buy puts in the $51.00-52.00 range. If triggered we have two targets. Our first target is 47.75-47.50. Our second target is the $45.15-45.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $45 target. FYI: Last month DVA announced a $250 million stock buy back program. At $50 a share that's about 5 million shares. DVA has about 104 million shares outstanding.

Picked on June xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 606 thousand

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Electronic Arts - ERTS - close: 47.06 chg: +0.07 stop: 49.05

The oversold bounce in ERTS continued into Monday. Wait for a failed rally near $48.00 before considering new put positions. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops closer to the $48 level. Our target is the February lows near $44.50-44.00.

Picked on June 06 at $ 47.75 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.69
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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3M Co. - MMM - close: 75.20 chg: -0.92 stop: 77.05

MMM is showing relative weakness and looks like it's ready to breakdown under $75.00 again. Traders might be tempted to jump in right now with some new put positions. If you prefer to see more momentum then wait for a new relative low under $74.75. We have two targets. Our first target is the $70.25-70.00 zone. Our secondary target is the $67.00-65.00 range. The P&F chart is bearish with a $69 target. FYI: If you are aiming for the $67 target then you might want to consider the October puts.

Picked on June 06 at $ 74.95 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.25
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.0 million

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Monsanto - MON - close: 135.92 change: -1.34 stop: 140.55

A lot of the fertilizer stocks like POT, MOS, CF, IPI, and AGU all hit new highs today. MON was the laggard with a failed rally near $140.00. This looks like a new bearish entry point to buy puts. I want to reiterate that this is an aggressive, higher-risk play. With the sector moving higher it's a tough call to go against the current. Remember, we're long-term bullish on MON and this industry and we're just trying to capture a short-term correction. A dip toward $125 would look like a possible entry point to buy calls. Our target is the $126.50 mark. We do not want to hold over the June 25th earnings report.

Picked on June 11 at $133.40
Change since picked: + 2.52
Earnings Date 06/25/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.5 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Amgen Inc. - AMGN - close: 43.99 chg: +0.02 stop: n/a

We have four days left to go for June options. It's not looking good. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. We have suggested a July strangle and a more aggressive June strangle. The options in the July strangle are the July $45 calls (AMQ-GI) and the July $40 puts (AMQ-SH). Our estimated cost for the July strangle was $1.65. We want to sell if either option hits $3.50. The options in the June strangle are the June $45.00 calls (AMQ-FI) and the June $40.00 puts (AMQ-RH). Our estimated cost on the June strangle was $0.56.

Picked on May 22 at $ 42.77
Change since picked: + 1.22
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.7 million

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Alpha Nat. Res. - ANR - close: 94.42 chg: +0.17 stop: n/a

ANR struggled to keep the momentum going today. We would suggest strangle positions in the $94-96 zone. This is a higher-risk strangle play with the options so expensive. The options we suggested were the July $105 calls (ANR-GA) and the July $85 puts (ANR-SQ). Our estimated cost was $9.40. We want to sell if either option hits $14.50.

Picked on June 15 at $ 94.25
Change since picked: + 0.17
Earnings Date 08/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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Fording Cand. Coal - FDG - close: 85.74 chg: +2.83 stop: n/a

FDG hit another new high with a 3.4% gain. If you want to play with the options we listed then wait for a dip near $82.50. Otherwise you may want to adjust the strikes you trade with. We were suggesting the July $90 calls (FDG-GR) and the July $75 puts (FDG-SO). Our estimated cost was $5.45. We want to sell if either option hits $ 8.00 or higher.

Picked on June 15 at $ 82.91
Change since picked: + 2.83
Earnings Date 07/21/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million

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Garmin Ltd. - GRMN - close: 45.85 chg: +0.94 stop: n/a

GRMN continued to trade sideways on either side of $45.00, which allowed us a great opportunity to open up strangle plays. We would suggest entries in the $45.50-44.50 zone. The options we listed were the July $50 calls (GQR-GJ) and the July $40 puts (GQR-SH). Our estimated cost was $2.55 We want to sell if either option hits $ 4.75 or higher.

Picked on June 15 at $ 44.91
Change since picked: + 0.94
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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Holly Corp. - HOC - close: 39.85 chg: -1.40 stop: n/a

HOC's drop back toward the $40.00 level is a great entry point to open strangles. We would try and use the $41.00-39.00 zone as your entry range. The options we listed were the July $45 calls (HOC-GI) and the July $35 puts (HOC-SG). Our estimated cost was $2.00 We want to sell if either option hits $ 3.00 or higher.

Picked on June 15 at $ 41.25
Change since picked: - 1.40
Earnings Date 08/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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McDonald's - MCD - close: 59.94 chg: -0.01 stop: n/a

Dow-component MCD did not see much movement today. That's very bad news for our options, which only have four days left. Don't be surprised to see the "market" peg MCD at the $60 strike price by Friday. We are not suggesting new positions. The options we suggested were the June $62.50 calls (MCD-FZ) and the June $57.50 puts (MCD-RY). Our estimated cost was $1.10.

Picked on May 18 at $ 60.53
Change since picked: - 0.59
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.5 million

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Tyco Intl. - TYC - close: 43.28 change: -0.05 stop: n/a

TYC is still trading sideways in its new $43-44 trading range. We are not suggesting new strangle positions in TYC at this time. The options we suggested were the July $47.50 calls (TYC-GW) and the July $42.50 puts (TYC-SV). Our estimated cost was $1.30. We want to sell if either option hits $1.95 (50% gain).

Picked on June 03 at $ 44.89
Change since picked: - 1.62
Earnings Date 08/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.9 million

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Valero - VLO - close: 44.12 change: -0.72 stop: n/a

There is no change from our weekend comments on VLO. We would still open new strangles in the $44-45 zone. The options we suggested were the July $50 calls (VLO-GJ) and the July $40 puts (VLO-SH). Our estimated cost is $1.89. We want to sell if either option hits $2.75 or higher.

Picked on June 15 at $ 44.84
Change since picked: - 0.72
Earnings Date 07/29/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 10.8 million
 

Dropped Calls

None
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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