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Call Updates

Alliant Tech - ATK - close: 103.36 change: -1.73 stop: 102.95

The bounce in defense stocks is failing and ATK is no exception. We still haven't seen any news to explain Tuesday's sudden drop. The bad news today is that the bounce from its trendline of support has failed. ATK is now testing that trendline of support again. If there is any follow through in the market to the downside tomorrow we do expect ATK to hit our stop loss at $102.95. Should things change and ATK rebounds then we'd look for a new move over $105.25 before considering new positions. We have two targets. The 200-dma is near $109.00. We're setting the first target at $108.75. Our second target is the $111.00 mark.

Picked on June 12 at $105.28
Change since picked: - 1.94
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 244 thousand

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Peabody Energy - BTU - close: 83.06 change: +4.09 stop: 76.95 *new*

We strongly suggest that readers take profits here in BTU. Coal stocks were stronger thanks to a sector-wide rally fueled on positive analyst comments and raised price targets due to the rising price of coal. Shares of BTU soared more than 5% to a new high. The intraday high was $83.64. Our secondary target has been the $84.00 level. BTU might hit our target at $84 tomorrow but we still suggest readers take profits now. Our new stop loss is $76.95.

Picked on June 01 at $ 73.92 /1st target exceeded 79.75
Change since picked: + 9.14
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.8 million

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Bucyrus - BUCY - close: 77.72 change: -0.72 stop: 71.65

BUCY has held up pretty well during a two-day market decline. It would not be shocking to see the stock pull back and retest its 10-dma around $75.50. If you're looking for a new entry point wait for another pull back near $75.00. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stop loss. We have two targets. Our first target is $79.85. Our second target is $83.50. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $92 target.

Picked on June 15 at $ 75.41
Change since picked: + 2.31
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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Research In Motion - RIMM - cls: 144.45 chg: +2.29 stop: 132.49

Another positive analyst note on RIMM and a new $165 price target helped RIMM out perform the market today. Shares added 1.6%. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. The stock looks short-term overbought and due for a dip. Readers should expect some profit taking in RIMM. A bounce in the $137-135 region might be a new entry point for bullish plays. Our second target is $154.50. RIMM has already hit our first target at $144.

Picked on June 16 at $136.05 *1st target exceeded $144
Change since picked: + 8.40
Earnings Date 06/25/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 16.7 million

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United States Oil - USO - close: 110.89 chg: +2.21 stop: 106.95*new*

It was something of a rocky day for crude oil with a morning drop that eventually reversed. Oil inventories came in lower again. The USO bounced from $107.12. This looks like a new entry point but keep two things in mind. First we plan to exit on Friday at the closing bell. Second, the USO still has short-term resistance near $112.75. We are raising the stop loss to $106.95. Our first target is the $114.90 mark. Our second target is $118.00. We strongly suggest you take some profits at the first target.

Picked on June 12 at $111.27
Change since picked: - 0.38
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 11.4 million
 

Put Updates

Emerging Markets 50 ADR - ADRE - cls: 52.59 chg: -0.53 stop: 55.01

The ADRE showed some weakness this morning but pared its losses by the closing bell. We're not suggesting new put positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $51.00-50.00 zone.

Picked on June 03 at $ 54.69
Change since picked: - 2.10
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 448 thousand

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Caterpillar - CAT - close: 79.70 change: -0.99 stop: 83.55

CAT continues to roll over under resistance. This remains a new entry point to buy puts. More conservative traders could use a tighter stop loss. Our target is the $75.25 mark. The stock "should" see some technical support at its 200-dma near $75.00.

Picked on June 11 at $ 79.45 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.25
Earnings Date 07/18/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.2 million

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Capital One - COF - close: 42.36 change: -1.51 stop: 46.41

Financials lead the market lower yet again. COF plunged to $40.90 before bouncing back. I suspect the stock could bounce back to the $44.00-44.50 zone. Look for a failed rally as a new entry point to buy puts. We have two targets. Our first target is $40.25. Our second target is $37.75. The Point & Figure chart has a $36 target.

Picked on June 17 at $ 43.87
Change since picked: - 1.51
Earnings Date 07/17/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.3 million

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Deere & Co. - DE - close: 78.06 change: -1.14 stop: 82.55

DE, much like it's rival CAT, is seeing its recent bounce fail. This is another entry point to buy puts. Our target is the $70.50 mark. The Point & Figure chart is forecasting a $72 target.

Picked on June 12 at $ 78.49 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.43
Earnings Date 08/13/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.4 million

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DaVita Inc. - DVA - close: 49.47 chg: -0.59 stop: 52.01

DVA continued to slip lower today. Then without warning it just plunged in the last 30 minutes of trading. We did not find any news that might explain the sudden weakness. We have two targets. Our first target is 47.75-47.50. Our second target is the $45.15-45.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $45 target. FYI: Last month DVA announced a $250 million stock buy back program. At $50 a share that's about 5 million shares. DVA has about 104 million shares outstanding.

Picked on June 17 at $ 50.26
Change since picked: - 0.59
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 606 thousand

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Electronic Arts - ERTS - close: 46.96 chg: +0.20 stop: 49.05

ERTS tried to rally again but it failed under $47.50. We remain bearish on the stock. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stop closer to the $48 level. Our target is the February lows near $44.50-44.00.

Picked on June 06 at $ 47.75 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.79
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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E*Trade - ETFC - close: 3.69 change: +0.01 stop: 3.91

ETFC was trading lower this morning, around $3.59, but traders were buying the dip this afternoon. I could see another bounce back toward $3.80 before the stock rolls over again. Wait for the failed rally before initiating new put positions. The options we suggested were the July $4.00 and $3.00 puts. We have two targets. Our first target is $3.25. Our second target is $3.05. FYI: In the news today ETFC released its monthly activity report for May. The company added 21,000 retail accounts. Customer assets were up almost 4%.

Picked on June 17 at $ 3.68
Change since picked: + 0.01
Earnings Date 07/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 20.8 million

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3M Co. - MMM - close: 74.30 chg: -0.67 stop: 77.05

MMM is still sinking and shares have hit new relative lows. This looks like another entry point for puts. We have two targets. Our first target is the $70.25-70.00 zone. Our secondary target is the $67.00-65.00 range. The P&F chart is bearish with a $69 target. FYI: If you are aiming for the $67 target then you might want to consider the October puts.

Picked on June 06 at $ 74.95 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.65
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.0 million

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PowerShares QQQ - QQQQ - close: 48.02 change: -0.52 stop: 49.26

The NASDAQ 100 index (NDX) rolled over as expected. The Qs lost just over 1% and closed under the 200-dma. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. Our target is $46.10. The $46.00 level and its 100-dma might be support.

Picked on June 17 at $ 48.54
Change since picked: - 0.52
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 133 million

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S&P 500 SPDR - SPY - close: 134.24 change: -1.32 stop: 137.26

Today's weakness in the SPY only confirms yesterday's bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. Our target is the $132.40 mark, just above the mid April lows.

Picked on June 17 at $135.57
Change since picked: - 1.32
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 197 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Amgen Inc. - AMGN - close: 44.22 chg: -0.17 stop: n/a

The story is almost over for the June options, which expire in two days. Don't be surprised to see the "market" pin shares of AMGN near the $45.00 strike price on Friday afternoon. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. We have suggested a July strangle and a more aggressive June strangle. The options in the July strangle are the July $45 calls (AMQ-GI) and the July $40 puts (AMQ-SH). Our estimated cost for the July strangle was $1.65. We want to sell if either option hits $3.50. The options in the June strangle are the June $45.00 calls (AMQ-FI) and the June $40.00 puts (AMQ-RH). Our estimated cost on the June strangle was $0.56.

Picked on May 22 at $ 42.77
Change since picked: + 1.45
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.7 million

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Alpha Nat. Res. - ANR - close: 100.05 chg: +3.92 stop: n/a

Positive analyst comments about rising coal prices lifted the entire sector today. ANR added 4% to close above round-number resistance at $100.00. We are not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. This is a higher-risk strangle play with the options so expensive. The options we suggested were the July $105 calls (ANR-GA) and the July $85 puts (ANR-SQ). Our estimated cost was $9.40. We want to sell if either option hits $14.50.

Picked on June 15 at $ 94.25
Change since picked: + 5.80
Earnings Date 08/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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Fording Cand. Coal - FDG - close: 90.84 chg: +3.84 stop: n/a

FDG is another high-flying coal stock. Shares added 4.4% to breakout over $90.00. We're not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. We were suggesting the July $90 calls (FDG-GR) and the July $75 puts (FDG-SO). Our estimated cost was $5.45. We want to sell if either option hits $ 8.00 or higher.

Picked on June 15 at $ 82.91
Change since picked: + 7.93
Earnings Date 07/21/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million

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Garmin Ltd. - GRMN - close: 43.09 chg: -0.39 stop: n/a

GRMN posted another decline on Wednesday. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The options we listed were the July $50 calls (GQR-GJ) and the July $40 puts (GQR-SH). Our estimated cost was $2.55 We want to sell if either option hits $ 4.75 or higher.

Picked on June 15 at $ 44.91
Change since picked: - 1.43
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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Holly Corp. - HOC - close: 39.78 chg: -0.82 stop: n/a

Rising crude oil puts margin pressure on the refiners. HOC lost another 2%. It's not too late to open new strangles. We would try and use the $41.00-39.00 zone as your entry range. The options we listed were the July $45 calls (HOC-GI) and the July $35 puts (HOC-SG). Our estimated cost was $2.00. We want to sell if either option hits $ 3.00 or higher.

Picked on June 15 at $ 41.25
Change since picked: - 1.47
Earnings Date 08/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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McDonald's - MCD - close: 58.21 chg: -1.00 stop: n/a

The bounce in MCD is fading fast. Shares lost 1.6% and closed under its 50-dma. We're almost out of time. June options expire in two days. We are not suggesting new positions. The options we suggested were the June $62.50 calls (MCD-FZ) and the June $57.50 puts (MCD-RY). Our estimated cost was $1.10.

Picked on May 18 at $ 60.53
Change since picked: - 2.32
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.5 million

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Tyco Intl. - TYC - close: 42.94 change: -0.46 stop: n/a

TYC lost 1% but it's still trading sideways. We are not suggesting new strangle positions in TYC at this time. The options we suggested were the July $47.50 calls (TYC-GW) and the July $42.50 puts (TYC-SV). Our estimated cost was $1.30. We want to sell if either option hits $1.95 (50% gain).

Picked on June 03 at $ 44.89
Change since picked: - 1.95
Earnings Date 08/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.9 million

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Valero - VLO - close: 44.06 change: -0.96 stop: n/a

VLO provided another entry point opportunity earlier today. At this time we're not suggesting new positions. The options we suggested were the July $50 calls (VLO-GJ) and the July $40 puts (VLO-SH). Our estimated cost is $1.89. We want to sell if either option hits $2.75 or higher.

Picked on June 15 at $ 44.84
Change since picked: - 0.78
Earnings Date 07/29/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 10.8 million
 

Dropped Calls

None
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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