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Call Updates

Bucyrus - BUCY - close: 76.05 change: -1.67 stop: 71.65

Our early gains in BUCY are fading fast. Shares have pulled back toward short-term technical support at the rising 10-dma. More conservative traders will want to consider raising their stops toward $74 or maybe $75. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. We have two targets. Our first target is $79.85. Our second target is $83.50. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $92 target.

Picked on June 15 at $ 75.41
Change since picked: + 0.64
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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Research In Motion - RIMM - cls: 147.55 chg: +3.10 stop: 137.40*new*

RIMM continues to show impressive relative strength. The stock added another 2.1% and closed at a new all-time high. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. RIMM has already exceeded our first target at $144.00. Our second target is $154.50. Remember, we do not want to hold over RIMM's earnings next Wednesday. Please note that we are raising our stop loss to $137.40.

Picked on June 16 at $136.05 *1st target exceeded $144
Change since picked: +11.50
Earnings Date 06/25/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 16.7 million
 

Put Updates

Emerging Markets 50 ADR - ADRE - cls: 52.48 chg: -0.11 stop: 55.01

The ADRE didn't see much action today. Shares just slid sideways. We're not suggesting new put positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $51.00-50.00 zone.

Picked on June 03 at $ 54.69
Change since picked: - 2.21
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 448 thousand

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Caterpillar - CAT - close: 79.48 change: -0.22 stop: 82.75 *new*

CAT dipped to its June lows and bounce but the bounce failed midday. The trend still looks bearish given the failed rally near $82 a few days ago. However, the bounce may not be over yet. Readers could wait for another failed rally in the $81.00-81.50 zone as a new entry point. We're adjusting our stop loss to $82.75. Our target is the $75.25 mark. The stock "should" see some technical support at its 200-dma near $75.00.

Picked on June 11 at $ 79.45 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.03
Earnings Date 07/18/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.2 million

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Capital One - COF - close: 41.88 change: -0.48 stop: 46.05 *new*

COF almost hit our first target today. Shares dipped to $40.50 before bouncing. We had set our first target at $40.25. The afternoon bounce and the dip close to $40 looks good enough that COF is now poised to bounce. Expect a rebound back to the $44.50-45.00 zone. We're adjusting the stop loss to $46.05. We have two targets. Our first target is $40.25. Our second target is $37.75. The Point & Figure chart has a $36 target.

Picked on June 17 at $ 43.87
Change since picked: - 1.99
Earnings Date 07/17/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.3 million

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Deere & Co. - DE - close: 77.68 change: -0.38 stop: 82.55

The major indices managed to eke out a bounce today. DE failed to participate. We are going to lower our stop loss to $82.05. If DE provides another failed rally near $80 we'd use it as a new entry point for puts. Our target is the $70.50 mark. The Point & Figure chart is forecasting a $72 target.

Picked on June 12 at $ 78.49 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.81
Earnings Date 08/13/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.4 million

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DaVita Inc. - DVA - close: 51.04 chg: +1.57 stop: 52.01

Uh-oh! The tone in DVA just changed today. The stock soared higher throughout the session to a 3.1% gain. DVA managed to close just above its simple 50-dma. We could not find any specific news to account for the move. This should put the bears on the defensive. More conservative traders may want to consider a slightly tighter stop around $51.75. On the other hand a failed rally under $52.00 would be another entry point to buy puts. We have two targets. Our first target is 47.75-47.50. Our second target is the $45.15-45.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $45 target. FYI: Last month DVA announced a $250 million stock buy back program. At $50 a share that's about 5 million shares. DVA has about 104 million shares outstanding.

Picked on June 17 at $ 50.26
Change since picked: + 0.78
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 606 thousand

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Electronic Arts - ERTS - close: 48.44 chg: +1.48 stop: 49.05

We didn't see any direct news today that may have fueled the 3% rally in ERTS. There were a couple of headlines about Take-Two Interactive and some agreement being reached with the FTC. ERTS is trying to buy TTWO for $2 billion but TTWO says the offer is too low. The FTC wanted to see more details on the bid and it seems that TTWO wasn't cooperating. It seems a little odd that the FTC, who normally reviews mergers for possible anti-trust issues, would spend time talking to TTWO when there is no deal yet. At any rate shares of ERTS have broken through what should have been resistance at $48.00. More conservative traders will want to strongly consider an early exit right here to cut your losses. We're not suggesting new positions. Our target is the February lows near $44.50-44.00.

Picked on June 06 at $ 47.75 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.69
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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E*Trade - ETFC - close: 3.69 change: -0.00 stop: 3.91

It was a quiet day for ETFC and the stock closed unchanged. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. The stock could see another bounce back toward $3.80 before it rolls over again. Wait for the failed rally before initiating new put positions. The options we suggested were the July $4.00 and $3.00 puts. We have two targets. Our first target is $3.25. Our second target is $3.05. FYI: In the news today ETFC released its monthly activity report for May. The company added 21,000 retail accounts. Customer assets were up almost 4%.

Picked on June 17 at $ 3.68
Change since picked: + 0.01
Earnings Date 07/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 20.8 million

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3M Co. - MMM - close: 74.12 chg: -0.18 stop: 77.05

MMM slowly faded to another new relative low. We remain bearish but remain frustrated at the rate of movement in MMM, which is too slow. We have two targets. Our first target is the $70.25-70.00 zone. Our secondary target is the $67.00-65.00 range. The P&F chart is bearish with a $69 target. FYI: If you are aiming for the $67 target then you might want to consider the October puts.

Picked on June 06 at $ 74.95 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.83
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.0 million

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PowerShares QQQ - QQQQ - close: 48.77 change: +0.75 stop: 49.26

Strength in tech stocks, specifically internet-related and semiconductors, helped lift the NASDAQ to a 1.3% gain. The NDX index did even better with a 1.6% gain. The QQQQ tracks the NDX and shares have rallied back above the 50-dma and 200-dma. Wait for this rally to roll over before considering new positions. Our target is $46.10. The $46.00 level and its 100-dma might be support.

Picked on June 17 at $ 48.54
Change since picked: + 0.23
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 133 million

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S&P 500 SPDR - SPY - close: 134.24 change: -1.32 stop: 137.26

We would like to claim a victory here but we can't. Most quote services are putting today's intraday low on the SPY at $132.00. Our target is $132.40. Unfortunately $132.00 is a bad tick. The SPY never traded under $133.50 today. The trend is still bearish but the bounce may not be over yet.

Picked on June 17 at $135.57
Change since picked: - 1.32
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 197 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Amgen Inc. - AMGN - close: 44.86 chg: +0.64 stop: n/a

AMGN rallied back to the $45 level. Unfortunately, we expect the market makers to pin AMGN to the $45 level tomorrow for option expiration. That means the June strangle is dead but if AMGN can trade around $45.50 we can probably exit the June $45 calls (AMQ-FI) for close to our cost. Try to salvage what you can from the June strangle. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. We have suggested a July strangle and a more aggressive June strangle. The options in the July strangle are the July $45 calls (AMQ-GI) and the July $40 puts (AMQ-SH). Our estimated cost for the July strangle was $1.65. We want to sell if either option hits $3.50. The options in the June strangle are the June $45.00 calls (AMQ-FI) and the June $40.00 puts (AMQ-RH). Our estimated cost on the June strangle was $0.56.

Picked on May 22 at $ 42.77
Change since picked: + 2.09
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.7 million

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Alpha Nat. Res. - ANR - close: 94.32 chg: -5.73 stop: n/a

The trend in ANR is still bullish but we feel like yelling, "look out below". The stock has painted a huge bearish reversal with today's bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. We are not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. This is a higher-risk strangle play with the options so expensive. The options we suggested were the July $105 calls (ANR-GA) and the July $85 puts (ANR-SQ). Our estimated cost was $9.40. We want to sell if either option hits $14.50.

Picked on June 15 at $ 94.25
Change since picked: + 0.07
Earnings Date 08/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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Fording Cand. Coal - FDG - close: 88.64 chg: -2.20 stop: n/a

FDG, another coal stock, also looks like it may have peaked or at least put in a short-term top. We're not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. We were suggesting the July $90 calls (FDG-GR) and the July $75 puts (FDG-SO). Our estimated cost was $5.45. We want to sell if either option hits $ 8.00 or higher. FYI: The July $90 calls hit $6.00 intraday today.

Picked on June 15 at $ 82.91
Change since picked: + 5.73
Earnings Date 07/21/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million

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Garmin Ltd. - GRMN - close: 44.47 chg: +1.38 stop: n/a

If GRMN moves back into the $44.75-45.25 zone readers could open new strangle positions. The options we listed were the July $50 calls (GQR-GJ) and the July $40 puts (GQR-SH). Our estimated cost was $2.55. We want to sell if either option hits $ 4.75 or higher.

Picked on June 15 at $ 44.91
Change since picked: - 0.44
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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Holly Corp. - HOC - close: 40.10 chg: +0.32 stop: n/a

The refiners didn't move much in the face of a $4.75 drop for crude oil. The back and forth across the $40.00 mark does offer new entries for strangle positions. The options we listed were the July $45 calls (HOC-GI) and the July $35 puts (HOC-SG). Our estimated cost was $2.00. We want to sell if either option hits $ 3.00 or higher.

Picked on June 15 at $ 41.25
Change since picked: - 1.15
Earnings Date 08/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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McDonald's - MCD - close: 58.59 chg: +0.38 stop: n/a

Tomorrow is our last day for the MCD June strangle. The options we suggested were the June $62.50 calls (MCD-FZ) and the June $57.50 puts (MCD-RY). Our estimated cost was $1.10.

Picked on May 18 at $ 60.53
Change since picked: - 1.94
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.5 million

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Tyco Intl. - TYC - close: 43.77 change: +0.83 stop: n/a

Hmm... TYC may have produced a bullish reversal today. Shares dipped to the 200-dma and bounced. The rebound looks like a bullish engulfing candlestick. We are not suggesting new strangle positions in TYC at this time. The options we suggested were the July $47.50 calls (TYC-GW) and the July $42.50 puts (TYC-SV). Our estimated cost was $1.30. We want to sell if either option hits $1.95 (50% gain).

Picked on June 03 at $ 44.89
Change since picked: - 1.12
Earnings Date 08/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.9 million

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Valero - VLO - close: 44.17 change: +0.11 stop: n/a

VLO is another refiner that didn't move much even through crude oil had a big day (lower). At this time we're not suggesting new positions. The options we suggested were the July $50 calls (VLO-GJ) and the July $40 puts (VLO-SH). Our estimated cost is $1.89. We want to sell if either option hits $2.75 or higher.

Picked on June 15 at $ 44.844
Change since picked: - 0.67
Earnings Date 07/29/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 10.8 million
 

Dropped Calls

Alliant Tech - ATK - close: 105.57 change: +2.21 stop: 102.95

So what happened in ATK today? The DFI defense sector index spiked lower this morning and ATK followed with a sharp drop to $102.80. That was enough to hit our stop loss at $102.95 and close the play. What makes this so frustrating was that ATK immediately rebounded. The stock rallied throughout the session to close up more than 2%. The move has produced a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, which is typically seen as a bullish reversal, especially at the end of a downtrend. Now add that ATK is bouncing from its trendline of support and this looks like a new entry point for bullish positions. Keep an eye on ATK for some follow through higher especially if it can rise through the $106.50 region.

Picked on June 12 at $105.28 /stopped 102.95
Change since picked: + 0.29
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 244 thousand

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Peabody Energy - BTU - close: 82.19 change: -0.87 stop: 76.95

Target exceeded! It looks like the coal stocks may have just set a short-term top. The whole group spiked higher this morning and then reversed. Shares of BTU opened at $84.00 and traded to $86.24 before changing course. Our target was the $84.00-85.00 zone.

Picked on June 01 at $ 73.92 /2nd target exceeded 84.00
Change since picked: + 8.27
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.8 million

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United States Oil - USO - close: 106.91 chg: -3.98 stop: 106.95

Crude oil was bruised today by the unexpected news that China, who's fuel prices are set by the government, will raise prices by 16% on gasoline and 18% on diesel. This is expected to decrease fuel demand and crude oil fell almost $5 on the day. The USO dipped to $106.90, which was enough to hit our stop loss at $106.95 and close the play.

Picked on June 12 at $111.27 /stopped 106.95
Change since picked: - 4.36
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 11.4 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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