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Call Updates

Bucyrus - BUCY - close: 75.99 change: -1.71 stop: 72.45

Volatility continues in BUCY. The stock reversed and gave up more than 2% today. The general trend remains a positive one but you could argue that the daily technical indicators don't look that healthy. We have two targets. Our first target is $79.85. Our second target is $83.50. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $92 target.

Picked on June 15 at $ 75.41
Change since picked: + 0.58
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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Cephalon - CEPH - close: 70.56 change: -0.36 stop: 67.95

Yesterday CEPH had its price target raised to $86. This morning a different firm downgrades the stock. Shares react by gapping open lower at $69.71 and dipping to $69.38 before bouncing back. Our suggested entry point to buy calls was a pull back into the $69.50-69.00 zone so the play is now open. The test now is whether or not CEPH merely fills the gap from this morning or does it continue higher. Our target is the $74.00-75.00 range. CEPH could see more volatility tomorrow as it and several other companies present at a healthcare conference. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with an $83 target. The most recent data listed short interest at 18.6% of the 66.2 million-share float. That is a relatively high amount of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze, which would obviously be good for the bulls.

Picked on June 24 at $ 69.50 *triggered
Change since picked: + 1.06
Earnings Date 07/29/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million

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DIAMONDS - DIA - close: 117.94 chg: -0.39 stop: 116.99

The Dow Jones Industrial Average pulled back toward its March lows as we expected. The intraday low in the DIA was $117.16. Our suggested entry point was the $117.75-117.45 zone. The play is now open. If you missed today's entry consider waiting for a bounce tomorrow, maybe over $118.75, before opening new positions. Our target is the $121.50-122.00 zone.

Picked on June 24 at $117.75 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.19
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 13.1 million

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SPDRs - SPY - close: 131.19 chg: -0.26 stop: 129.19

The market's pull back this morning also drug the SPY toward the $130 level. The intraday low was $130.19. Our suggested entry point to buy calls was the $130.50-130.00 zone. If you missed today's entry point then consider waiting for another bounce near $130.00 before initiating positions. Our target is the $134.00-134.50 zone.

Picked on June 24 at $130.50 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.69
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 200 million
 

Put Updates

Apple Inc. - AAPL - close: 173.25 chg: +0.09 stop: 182.55

AAPL managed to eke out a very minor gain. Yet I would give a victory to the bears. AAPL produced another failed rally under $176.00 for the second day in a row. If you are looking for a new entry point then consider new positions on another failed rally near $176.00 or a failed rally under $180.00. This remains a very aggressive, speculative play. We're aiming for $166.00. More aggressive traders could aim for the 200-dma near $162.00. If AAPL were to test $160 we'd expect a bounce and consider buying calls for a short-term rebound.

Picked on June 22 at $175.27
Change since picked: - 2.02
Earnings Date 07/27/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 34.2 million

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Caterpillar - CAT - close: 76.64 change: -3.36 stop: 80.25 *new*

Shares of CAT plunged more than 4% on news it was buying a Brazilian company that makes train parts. CAT stalled midday at its 100-dma but eventually fell through it. The next stop should be our target at $75.25 just above what is probably support near $75.00 and its 200-dma. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our new stop loss is $80.25.

Picked on June 11 at $ 79.45 *triggered
Change since picked: - 2.81
Earnings Date 07/18/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.2 million

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Deere & Co. - DE - close: 75.34 change: -2.14 stop: 81.05 *new*

DE sank to another new relative low today. We would not suggest new positions since the DJIA looks like it could bounce from its March lows. We are adjusting our stop loss to $81.05. Our target is the $70.50 mark. The Point & Figure chart is forecasting a $72 target.

Picked on June 12 at $ 78.49 *triggered
Change since picked: - 3.15
Earnings Date 08/13/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.4 million

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Electronic Arts - ERTS - close: 46.14 chg: +0.10 stop: 48.55

ERTS bounced from short-term support near $45.50 this morning but the rebound was rolling over later this afternoon. The trend is still bearish but we're not suggesting new positions at this time. The stock looks poised to make a run at its 2008 lows. Our target is the February lows near $44.50-44.00. FYI: Don't forget that trading in ERTS is at risk for headlines regarding its attempted acquisition of TTWO. Depending on the news the stock could go either way.

Picked on June 06 at $ 47.75 *triggered
Change since picked: - 1.61
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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E*Trade - ETFC - close: 3.44 change: -0.07 stop: 3.81 *new*

Target achieved! ETFC plunged to $3.25 this morning before paring its losses. We have two targets. Our first target is $3.25. Our second target is $3.05. We have to warn readers that today's rebound looks like a short-term bullish reversal. At a minimum we would expect a bounce back to its 10-dma near $3.62. We're adjusting the stop loss to $3.81. We are not suggesting new positions.

Picked on June 17 at $ 3.68
Change since picked: - 0.24
Earnings Date 07/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 20.8 million

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3M Co. - MMM - close: 72.43 chg: -0.53 stop: 76.26

MMM declines again and produced another failed rebound near $73.50. The stock might bounce near its 2008 lows around $72.00 so readers may want to exit early near $72. We have two targets. Our first target is the $70.25-70.00 zone. Our secondary target is the $67.00-65.00 range. The P&F chart is bearish with a $69 target.

Picked on June 06 at $ 74.95 *triggered
Change since picked: - 2.52
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.0 million

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PowerShares QQQ - QQQQ - close: 46.81 chg: -0.24 stop: 49.05*new*

The intraday low in the Qs as $46.41. Our target is $46.10. Our concern is that some of the major indices like the DJIA and Wilshire 5000 have bounced from their March lows. If these indices bounce then the QQQQ will probably follow. It is worth noting that many of the major indices, including the NDX-100 which the Qs are based on, has produced a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern with a sloping neckline. We're not suggesting new positions. Our new stop loss is $49.05.

Picked on June 17 at $ 48.54
Change since picked: - 1.73
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 133 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Amgen Inc. - AMGN - close: 46.36 chg: +0.47 stop: n/a

AMGN has continued to rally and it looks like the call side of the July strangle will be the winning side. The July $45 calls hit $2.14 intraday. We have less than four weeks left with the July options. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. The options in the July strangle are the July $45 calls (AMQ-GI) and the July $40 puts (AMQ-SH). Our estimated cost for the July strangle was $1.65. We want to sell if either option hits $3.50.

Picked on May 22 at $ 42.77
Change since picked: + 3.59
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.7 million

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Alpha Nat. Res. - ANR - close: 92.65 chg: -3.42 stop: n/a

It continues to look like the coal stocks have produced a short-term top but it remains a risky bet to just buy directional put positions. That's why we suggested this strangle. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. This is a higher-risk strangle play with the options so expensive. The options we suggested were the July $105 calls (ANR-GA) and the July $85 puts (ANR-SQ). Our estimated cost was $9.40. We want to sell if either option hits $14.50.

Picked on June 15 at $ 94.25
Change since picked: - 1.60
Earnings Date 08/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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Fording Cand. Coal - FDG - close: 93.40 chg: -0.35 stop: n/a

FDG shrugged off the general weakness in the market and the more-specific weakness in coal stocks today. Shares remain poised to hit new highs. We're not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. The options we suggested were the July $90 calls (FDG-GR) and the July $75 puts (FDG-SO). Our estimated cost was $5.45. We want to sell if either option hits $ 8.00 or higher.

Picked on June 15 at $ 82.91
Change since picked: +10.49
Earnings Date 07/21/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million

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Garmin Ltd. - GRMN - close: 43.19 chg: +0.57 stop: n/a

GRMN bounced from its lows near $41.40 but the rebound seemed to struggle near its trend of lower highs. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The options we listed were the July $50 calls (GQR-GJ) and the July $40 puts (GQR-SH). Our estimated cost was $2.55. We want to sell if either option hits $ 4.75 or higher.

Picked on June 15 at $ 44.91
Change since picked: - 1.72
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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Holly Corp. - HOC - close: 39.18 chg: -0.35 stop: n/a

HOC plunged to $37.65 intraday. The afternoon bounce made it back to the $40 level before rolling over again. This looks bearish. HOC gave us another entry point with the bounce back toward $40.00 but we're not suggesting new entry points at this time. The options we listed were the July $45 calls (HOC-GI) and the July $35 puts (HOC-SG). Our estimated cost was $2.00. We want to sell if either option hits $ 3.00 or higher.

Picked on June 15 at $ 41.25
Change since picked: - 2.07
Earnings Date 08/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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KLA-Tencor - KLAC - close: 40.90 chg: +1.10 stop:

KLAC out performed the markets today with a 2.7% gain. The stock gave us another chance at an entry around $40.00. We would open positions in the $40.50-39.50 zone. The closer to $40.00 the better. We listed two different strangles on KLAC.

KLAC Strangle #1) The options we listed were the July $42.50 calls (KCQ-GV) and the July $37.50 puts (KCQ-SU). Our estimated cost is $1.65 We want to sell if either option hits $3.00.

KLAC Strangle #2) The options we listed were the July $45.00 calls (KCQ-GI) and the July $35.00 puts (KCQ-SG). Our estimated cost is $0.70. We want to sell if either option hits $1.50.

Picked on June 22 at $ 40.07
Change since picked: + 0.83
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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Tyco Intl. - TYC - close: 42.44 change: -0.46 stop: n/a

TYC is slipping lower and fell to its 200-dma today. We are not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. The options we suggested were the July $47.50 calls (TYC-GW) and the July $42.50 puts (TYC-SV). Our estimated cost was $1.30. We want to sell if either option hits $1.95 (50% gain). FYI: The $42.50 puts hit $1.35 today.

Picked on June 03 at $ 44.89
Change since picked: - 2.45
Earnings Date 08/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.9 million

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United States Oil - USO - cls: 110.95 chg: +0.03 stop: n/a

The USO continues to coil sideways around the $110 level. We got another entry point near $110 more than once today. We would still consider new strangles in the $111.00-109.00 zone. We suggested two different strangles. The strangle with the wider strikes costs less but has higher risk.

FYI: If you opened new positions now the USO strangle #1 would cost about $5.85. The USO strangle #2 would cost about $3.10.

USO Strangle #1) The options we listed were the July $115 calls (IYS-GK) and the July $105 puts (IYS-SA). Our estimated cost is $7.10 We want to sell if either option hits $9.75.

USO Strangle #2) The options we listed were the July $120 calls (QSO-GP) and the July $100 puts (IYS-SV). Our estimated cost is $4.10. We want to sell if either option hits $6.50.

Picked on June 22 at $109.14
Change since picked: + 1.81
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 12.5 million

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Valero - VLO - close: 43.16 change: -0.28 stop: n/a

VLO is still bouncing sideways. At this time we're not suggesting new positions. However, if you are looking for a new entry point then consider option positions in the $44.75-45.25 zone. The options we suggested were the July $50 calls (VLO-GJ) and the July $40 puts (VLO-SH). Our estimated cost is $1.89. We want to sell if either option hits $2.75 or higher.

Picked on June 15 at $ 44.84
Change since picked: - 1.68
Earnings Date 07/29/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 10.8 million
 

Dropped Calls

None
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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