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Call Updates

Bucyrus - BUCY - close: 74.14 change: -1.85 stop: 72.45

BUCY under performed the market today probably due to the sector-wide sell-off in coal stocks. BUCY sells a lot of coal-mining equipment. The general trend is up but momentum indicators do not look very healthy right now. The MACD has turned negative (actually about four days ago). BUCY is currently testing its 21-dma. Wait for a bounce before considering new positions. We have two targets. Our first target is $79.85. Our second target is $83.50. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $92 target.

Picked on June 15 at $ 75.41
Change since picked: - 1.27
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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Cephalon - CEPH - close: 69.23 change: -1.33 stop: 67.95

Warning! Today's session in CEPH is very short-term bearish. The stock spiked just high enough this morning to fill the gap from Tuesday and then CEPH reversed lower. This is not healthy and CEPH was accelerating lower into the closing bell. More conservative traders may want to exit immediately! We would only consider new positions if we saw a strong bounce from $69.00. If you don't want to exit consider raising your stop loss. Our target is the $74.00-75.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with an $83 target. The most recent data listed short interest at 18.6% of the 66.2 million-share float. That is a relatively high amount of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze, which would obviously be good for the bulls.

Picked on June 24 at $ 69.50 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.27
Earnings Date 07/29/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million

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DIAMONDS - DIA - close: 117.91 chg: -0.03 stop: 116.99

The DJIA is struggling to maintain its bounce. At the end of the day and after the post-fed meeting news the DJIA and the DIA closed almost unchanged. I would hesitate to open new bullish positions at this time. Our target is the $121.50-122.00 zone.

FYI: Investors were not acting positively to most of the earnings announcements out tonight. The after-hours weakness suggests a lower open tomorrow. Of course that could change by tomorrow morning.

Picked on June 24 at $117.75 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.16
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 13.1 million

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SPDRs - SPY - close: 131.81 chg: +0.62 stop: 129.19

The market was drifting higher this morning and then spiked higher again following the Fed meeting but investors trimmed their gains by the closing bell. You could argue that today's session has produced a new bearish failed rally pattern under the 10-dma today. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $134.00-134.50 zone.

FYI: Investors were not acting positively to most of the earnings announcements out tonight. The after-hours weakness suggests a lower open tomorrow. Of course that could change by tomorrow morning.

Picked on June 24 at $130.50 *triggered
Change since picked: + 1.31
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 200 million
 

Put Updates

Apple Inc. - AAPL - close: 177.39 chg: +4.14 stop: 182.55

AAPL rallied 2.3% and is nearing its three-week trendline of lower highs. However, the stock failed to breakout over its 50-dma. Meanwhile after the closing bell RIMM delivered its earnings and the market reaction was negative. AAPL's iPhone is challenging RIMM's BlackBerry for the smartphone market. RIMM was down more than $12 in after hours and AAPL followed with a $4.00 loss in the after market. A failed rally under $180 would look like a new entry point to buy puts in AAPL. This remains a very aggressive, speculative play. We're aiming for $166.00. More aggressive traders could aim for the 200-dma near $162.00. If AAPL were to test $160 we'd expect a bounce and consider buying calls for a short-term rebound.

Picked on June 22 at $175.27
Change since picked: + 2.12
Earnings Date 07/27/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 34.2 million

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Caterpillar - CAT - close: 76.58 change: -0.06 stop: 80.25

CAT dipped to $76.00 before finally producing an oversold bounce. The new trend is bearish and the stock remains short-term oversold. CAT could bounce back to $78 or $80 before rolling over again. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is at $75.25 just above what is probably support near $75.00 and its 200-dma.

Picked on June 11 at $ 79.45 *triggered
Change since picked: - 2.87
Earnings Date 07/18/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.2 million

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Deere & Co. - DE - close: 73.56 change: -1.78 stop: 78.55 *new*

We are suggesting that readers do some profit taking in DE. The stock is down almost $5 from our picked price. Shares really under performed today and closed near their lows for the session. We are adjusting the stop loss to $78.55. Our target is the $70.50 mark. The Point & Figure chart is forecasting a $72 target.

Picked on June 12 at $ 78.49 *triggered
Change since picked: - 4.93
Earnings Date 08/13/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.4 million

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Electronic Arts - ERTS - close: 45.83 chg: -0.31 stop: 48.55

ERTS is still trying to bounce from the $45.50 region but it didn't do a very good job of it today. The trend is still bearish but we're not suggesting new positions at this time. The stock looks poised to make a run at its 2008 lows. Our target is the February lows near $44.50-44.00. FYI: Don't forget that trading in ERTS is at risk for headlines regarding its attempted acquisition of TTWO. Depending on the news the stock could go either way.

Picked on June 06 at $ 47.75 *triggered
Change since picked: - 1.92
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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E*Trade - ETFC - close: 3.43 change: -0.01 stop: 3.81

ETFC under performed the rest of the financials today. Shares saw their bounce failed near $3.50. This could be a new entry point for shorts but we'd prefer to see another failed rally near the 10-dma instead. If you open positions now we would suggest a tighter stop loss. Be careful. Yesterday's session still looks like a short-term bullish reversal. We have two targets. Our first target is $3.25, which was hit on Tuesday. Our second target is $3.05.

Picked on June 17 at $ 3.68
Change since picked: - 0.25
Earnings Date 07/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 20.8 million

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3M Co. - MMM - close: 72.57 chg: +0.14 stop: 75.26 *new*

MMM spent the day trading sideways. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Please note that we're adjusting the stop loss to $75.26. The stock might bounce near its 2008 lows around $72.00 so readers may want to exit early near $72. We have two targets. Our first target is the $70.25-70.00 zone. Our secondary target is the $67.00-65.00 range. The P&F chart is bearish with a $69 target.

Picked on June 06 at $ 74.95 *triggered
Change since picked: - 2.38
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.0 million

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PowerShares QQQ - QQQQ - close: 47.57 chg: +0.76 stop: 49.05

The tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 index (NDX) rebounded today. The move could be the completion of a three-candlestick bullish reversal pattern. For the technical traders out there this looks like a potential "morning doji star" pattern. If the QQQQ trades above the 200-dma near $48.25 then readers may want to abandon ship. Or you could tighten your stop loss toward our entry point around $48.50. We're not suggesting new positions.

FYI: Investors were not acting positively to most of the earnings announcements out tonight. The after-hours weakness suggests a lower open tomorrow. Of course that could change by tomorrow morning.

Picked on June 17 at $ 48.54
Change since picked: - 0.97
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 133 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Amgen Inc. - AMGN - close: 46.82 chg: +0.46 stop: n/a

AMGN continues to rally and is starting to look a little short-term overbought. The exponential 200-dma near $47.50 and the simple 200-dma near $48.00 could be resistance. If the call options don't hit our target then you might want to exit anyway as AMGN nears $48.00. Speaking of targets we're adjusting our exit target to $3.00. We have less than four weeks left with the July options. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. The options in the July strangle are the July $45 calls (AMQ-GI) and the July $40 puts (AMQ-SH). Our estimated cost for the July strangle was $1.65. We want to sell if either option hits $3.00.

Picked on May 22 at $ 42.77
Change since picked: + 4.15
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.7 million

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Alpha Nat. Res. - ANR - close: 92.87 chg: +0.22 stop: n/a

It was another volatile day for coal stocks. ANR dipped to $87.52 before bouncing back into the green. In the last five days ANR has traded from $104 to $87. If this bounce fails it may be telling us that ANR is headed lower. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. This is a higher-risk strangle play with the options so expensive. The options we suggested were the July $105 calls (ANR-GA) and the July $85 puts (ANR-SQ). Our estimated cost was $9.40. We want to sell if either option hits $14.50.

Picked on June 15 at $ 94.25
Change since picked: - 1.38
Earnings Date 08/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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Fording Cand. Coal - FDG - close: 90.70 chg: -2.70 stop: n/a

FDG also endured a somewhat volatile day but traders bought the dip at $87.29. I suspect that the stock is forming a top. Actually I've been worried that the coal stocks were forming a top since June 19th. We're not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. The options we suggested were the July $90 calls (FDG-GR) and the July $75 puts (FDG-SO). Our estimated cost was $5.45. We want to sell if either option hits $ 8.00 or higher.

Picked on June 15 at $ 82.91
Change since picked: + 7.79
Earnings Date 07/21/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million

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Garmin Ltd. - GRMN - close: 43.67 chg: +0.48 stop: n/a

GRMN continues to bounce around without getting anywhere. That's exactly what we don't want to see if we're holding a strangle. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The options we listed were the July $50 calls (GQR-GJ) and the July $40 puts (GQR-SH). Our estimated cost was $2.55. We want to sell if either option hits $ 4.75 or higher.

Picked on June 15 at $ 44.91
Change since picked: - 1.24
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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Holly Corp. - HOC - close: 39.73 chg: +0.55 stop: n/a

More nothing from HOC. Crude oil slipped lower but the refiners didn't move much on the news. HOC is back to testing the $40.00 region. If you are tempted to open a new strangle we would do so in the $39.75-40.25 region. The options we listed were the July $45 calls (HOC-GI) and the July $35 puts (HOC-SG). Our estimated cost was $2.00. We want to sell if either option hits $ 3.00 or higher.

Picked on June 15 at $ 41.25
Change since picked: - 1.52
Earnings Date 08/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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KLA-Tencor - KLAC - close: 41.15 chg: +0.25 stop:

KLAC spent the session trading sideways. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. We listed two different strangles on KLAC.

KLAC Strangle #1) The options we listed were the July $42.50 calls (KCQ-GV) and the July $37.50 puts (KCQ-SU). Our estimated cost is $1.65 We want to sell if either option hits $3.00.

KLAC Strangle #2) The options we listed were the July $45.00 calls (KCQ-GI) and the July $35.00 puts (KCQ-SG). Our estimated cost is $0.70. We want to sell if either option hits $1.50.

Picked on June 22 at $ 40.07
Change since picked: + 1.08
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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Tyco Intl. - TYC - close: 42.57 change: +0.13 stop: n/a

TYC is still hovering around its 200-dma. We are not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. The options we suggested were the July $47.50 calls (TYC-GW) and the July $42.50 puts (TYC-SV). Our estimated cost was $1.30. We want to sell if either option hits $1.95 (50% gain). FYI: The $42.50 puts hit $1.35 today.

Picked on June 03 at $ 44.89
Change since picked: - 2.32
Earnings Date 08/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.9 million

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United States Oil - USO - cls: 108.50 chg: -2.45 stop: n/a

This morning's oil inventory report showed an unexpected build. Crude oil reacted by dropping to the bottom of its current trading range. Unfortunately for the bears oil bounced back to the middle of its range. We don't care what direction oil moves as long as it just picks a direction and runs. We would still consider new strangles in the $111.00-109.00 zone and the closer to $110.00 the better. We suggested two different strangles. The strangle with the wider strikes costs less but has higher risk.

USO Strangle #1) The options we listed were the July $115 calls (IYS-GK) and the July $105 puts (IYS-SA). Our estimated cost is $7.10 We want to sell if either option hits $9.75.

USO Strangle #2) The options we listed were the July $120 calls (QSO-GP) and the July $100 puts (IYS-SV). Our estimated cost is $4.10. We want to sell if either option hits $6.50.

Picked on June 22 at $109.14
Change since picked: - 0.64
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 12.5 million

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Valero - VLO - close: 43.74 change: +0.58 stop: n/a

VLO is still not moving! We need VLO to pick a direction and go. We're not suggesting new positions. However, if you are looking for a new entry point then consider option positions in the $44.75-45.25 zone. The options we suggested were the July $50 calls (VLO-GJ) and the July $40 puts (VLO-SH). Our estimated cost is $1.89. We want to sell if either option hits $2.75 or higher.

Picked on June 15 at $ 44.84
Change since picked: - 1.10
Earnings Date 07/29/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 10.8 million
 

Dropped Calls

None
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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