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Call Updates

None
 

Put Updates

Apple Inc. - AAPL - close: 168.26 chg: -9.13 stop: 178.65 *new*

AAPL could not escape the pain in the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ composite plunged 3% with the NDX dropping closer to 4%. AAPL, a big winner this quarter, was a target for profit taking and the stock gave up more than 5.1%. The intraday low was $168.01. If there is any follow through tomorrow then AAPL could see our target at $166.00. We STRONGLY suggest that readers exit and take profits if AAPL even gets close to $166.00 (say under $167). There are a lot of investors who would like to buy the dip and the 200-dma near $163 is getting closer. We would actually consider buying calls if AAPL provides a bounce near $160. Right now we are adjusting the stop loss to $178.65.

Picked on June 22 at $175.27
Change since picked: - 7.01
Earnings Date 07/27/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 34.2 million

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E*Trade - ETFC - close: 3.26 change: -0.17 stop: 3.81

For the second time this week shares of ETFC have hit our first target at $3.25. The intraday low was $3.23. We strongly suggest that readers take some money off the table. Eventually the financials will bounce again. We're not suggesting new positions. Our second target is $3.05.

Picked on June 17 at $ 3.68 *1st target achieved
Change since picked: - 0.42
Earnings Date 07/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 20.8 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Amgen Inc. - AMGN - close: 46.36 chg: -0.46 stop: n/a

We are pleasantly surprised by the relative strength displayed in AMGN today. With a massive sell-off in the markets it would have been easy for AMGN to follow along and crush the calls. As it stands now we still have a chance. We have less than four weeks left with the July options. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. The options in the July strangle are the July $45 calls (AMQ-GI) and the July $40 puts (AMQ-SH). Our estimated cost for the July strangle was $1.65. We want to sell if either option hits $3.00.

Picked on May 22 at $ 42.77
Change since picked: + 3.59
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.7 million

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Alpha Nat. Res. - ANR - close: 94.76 chg: +1.89 stop: n/a

Many of the coal stocks displayed some very impressive relative strength. ANR dipped to $90.17 and then rebounded back to a 2% gain. Could this be end of quarter window dressing? We're not suggesting new positions at this time. This is a higher-risk strangle play with the options so expensive. The options we suggested were the July $105 calls (ANR-GA) and the July $85 puts (ANR-SQ). Our estimated cost was $9.40. We want to sell if either option hits $14.50.

Picked on June 15 at $ 94.25
Change since picked: + 0.51
Earnings Date 08/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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Fording Cand. Coal - FDG - close: 90.30 chg: -0.40 stop: n/a

FDG is another coal stocks that rebounded sharply from its intraday lows. The low today was $85.96. We're not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. The options we suggested were the July $90 calls (FDG-GR) and the July $75 puts (FDG-SO). Our estimated cost was $5.45. We want to sell if either option hits $ 8.00 or higher.

Picked on June 15 at $ 82.91
Change since picked: + 7.39
Earnings Date 07/21/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million

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Garmin Ltd. - GRMN - close: 42.69 chg: -0.98 stop: n/a

It looks like the recent bounce in GRMN is fading. Shares lost 2.2% today. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The options we listed were the July $50 calls (GQR-GJ) and the July $40 puts (GQR-SH). Our estimated cost was $2.55. We want to sell if either option hits $ 4.75 or higher.

Picked on June 15 at $ 44.91
Change since picked: - 2.22
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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Holly Corp. - HOC - close: 37.84 chg: -1.89 stop: n/a

As crude oil moves higher the oil refiners step lower. HOC lost 4.7%. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The options we listed were the July $45 calls (HOC-GI) and the July $35 puts (HOC-SG). Our estimated cost was $2.00. We want to sell if either option hits $ 3.00 or higher.

Picked on June 15 at $ 41.25
Change since picked: - 3.41
Earnings Date 08/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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KLA-Tencor - KLAC - close: 39.46 chg: -1.69 stop:

KLAC plunged more than 4% as tech stocks bore the brunt of today's weakness. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. We listed two different strangles on KLAC.

KLAC Strangle #1) The options we listed were the July $42.50 calls (KCQ-GV) and the July $37.50 puts (KCQ-SU). Our estimated cost is $1.65 We want to sell if either option hits $3.00.

KLAC Strangle #2) The options we listed were the July $45.00 calls (KCQ-GI) and the July $35.00 puts (KCQ-SG). Our estimated cost is $0.70. We want to sell if either option hits $1.50.

Picked on June 22 at $ 40.07
Change since picked: - 0.61
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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Nucor - NUE - close: 73.87 change: -2.79 stop: n/a

We did not have to wait very long for NUE to make a move. Shares broke down from its pennant-shaped pattern. We are not suggesting new positions at this time now that it's outside our suggested entry zone. The options we listed were the July $85 calls (NUE-GQ) and the July $70 puts (NUE-SN). Our estimated cost is $2.50. We want to sell if either option hits $3.50.

Picked on June 25 at $ 77.18
Change since picked: - 2.79
Earnings Date 07/17/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.6 million

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United States Oil - USO - cls: 113.12 chg: +4.62 stop: n/a

Oil was trading higher today thanks to the OPEC President telling French TV that he expected oil to hit $170 a barrel this summer. Crude oil rallied to $140 a barrel but couldn't quite breakout past the top of its trading range. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. We suggested two different strangles. The strangle with the wider strikes costs less but has higher risk.

USO Strangle #1) The options we listed were the July $115 calls (IYS-GK) and the July $105 puts (IYS-SA). Our estimated cost is $7.10 We want to sell if either option hits $9.75.

USO Strangle #2) The options we listed were the July $120 calls (QSO-GP) and the July $100 puts (IYS-SV). Our estimated cost is $4.10. We want to sell if either option hits $6.50.

Picked on June 22 at $109.14
Change since picked: + 3.98
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 12.5 million

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Valero - VLO - close: 41.25 change: -2.49 stop: n/a

VLO is sinking to new lows thanks to strength in oil. We're not suggesting new positions. However, if you are looking for a new entry point then consider option positions in the $44.75-45.25 zone. The options we suggested were the July $50 calls (VLO-GJ) and the July $40 puts (VLO-SH). Our estimated cost is $1.89. We want to sell if either option hits $2.75 or higher.

Picked on June 15 at $ 44.84
Change since picked: - 3.59
Earnings Date 07/29/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 10.8 million
 

Dropped Calls

Bucyrus - BUCY - close: 71.35 change: -2.79 stop: 72.45

Almost everything was clobbered today and BUCY was no exception. The stock actually gapped open lower at $72.53 and quickly hit our stop loss at $72.45. BUCY dipped toward its rising 50-dma before bouncing. Shares still closed with a 3.7% loss. The long-term trend is still up but BUCY could see a significant correction before moving higher again.

Picked on June 15 at $ 75.41 /stopped out 72.45
Change since picked: - 4.06
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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Cephalon - CEPH - close: 67.51 change: -1.72 stop: 67.95

Market weakness pushed CEPH through short-term support near $69.00 and its 200-dma but it bounced near the $68.00 level and traded sideways midday. Unfortunately, when the major market indices began to extend their losses traders rushed in to lock in profits on CEPH and the stock broke through $68.00 hitting our stop loss this afternoon. We would keep an eye on the $67.00 region and the simple 50-dma, either of which might be short-term support.

Picked on June 24 at $ 69.50 */ stopped out 67.95
Change since picked: - 1.99
Earnings Date 07/29/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million

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DIAMONDS - DIA - close: 114.67 chg: -3.24 stop: 116.99

It's not every day that Goldman Sachs puts two Dow components on their conviction "sell" list. This morning they downgraded both Citigroup (C) and General Motors (GM). The DJIA opened lower and the DIA, Diamonds, gapped open at $117.01. We were quickly stopped out at $116.99 and the DIA went on to drop 2.75% by the closing bell.

Picked on June 24 at $117.75 *stopped out 116.99
Change since picked: - 3.08
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 13.1 million

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Southern Copper - PCU - close: 108.57 chg: -2.30 stop: 107.45

We almost escaped being stopped out in PCU. Last night we added PCU as a call play with a suggestion to buy the dip in the $109.00-108.00 zone. Unfortunately, the market-wide weakness pushed PCU right through $108.00 and hit $107.35. Our stop loss was at $107.45. We've been triggered and stopped out in the same day. It does look like PCU might be building a bull flag pattern so keep it on your watch list.

Picked on June 26 at $109.00 *triggered and stopped 107.45
Change since picked: - 0.43
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million

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SPDRs - SPY - close: 128.23 chg: -3.58 stop: 129.19

Downgrades, negative earnings news, and record high oil prices all ganged up on the market today. The S&P 500 sank to new three-month lows. The SPY quickly hit our stop loss at $129.19.

Picked on June 24 at $130.50 *stopped out 129.19
Change since picked: - 2.27
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 200 million
 

Dropped Puts

Caterpillar - CAT - close: 74.28 change: -2.30 stop: 80.25

Target exceeded. CAT opened lower at $75.17 and plunged through its simple 200-dma. Our target was the $75.25 mark. We were expecting more support near $75.00. The stock hit an intraday low of $73.89.

Picked on June 11 at $ 79.45 *target exceeded (low 73.89)
Change since picked: - 5.17
Earnings Date 07/18/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.2 million

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Deere & Co. - DE - close: 71.50 change: -1.78 stop: 78.55

Target exceeded. DE was another casualty of the market's sell-off. The stock fell to $70.32 before paring its losses. Our target was the $70.50 mark. If there was going to be an oversold bounce this is probably the place to look for it.

Picked on June 12 at $ 78.49 *triggered
Change since picked: - 6.99
Earnings Date 08/13/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.4 million

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Electronic Arts - ERTS - close: 44.39 chg: -1.44 stop: 48.55

Target achieved. ERTS finally collapses for us and slipped to a low of $44.10. Our target was the $44.50-44.00 zone. It looks like ERTS might have a little bit farther to fall and then we'd start look for an oversold bounce.

Picked on June 06 at $ 47.75 *target achieved 44.50
Change since picked: - 3.36
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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3M Co. - MMM - close: 70.26 chg: -2.31 stop: 75.26

Target achieved. MMM, another Dow-component, gave up more than 3% and slipped to new 52-week lows. Shares hit $70.24. Our target was at $70.25. We are suggesting readers exit now before MMM produces an oversold bounce from round-number support at $70.00. We did have a second, more aggressive target at $67.00. We're not holding on. We'd rather exit now and just look for another entry point down the road.

Picked on June 06 at $ 74.95 *target achieved
Change since picked: - 4.69
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.0 million

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PowerShares QQQ - QQQQ - close: 45.65 chg: -1.92 stop: 49.05

Target exceeded. Big declines in RIMM, GOOG, AAPL and pretty much all the tech sector pushed the Qs to a 4% loss. We were expecting some support near $46.00. QQQQ just cut right through it. Our target was $46.10. The Qs closed on their lows today and that suggests more weakness for tomorrow morning.

Picked on June 17 at $ 48.54 *target exceeded (45.64 low)
Change since picked: - 2.89
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 133 million
 

Dropped Strangles

Tyco Intl. - TYC - close: 40.28 change: -2.29 stop: n/a

Target exceeded. Shares of TYC Just collapsed today after flirting with a breakdown at its 200-dma the last couple of session. The stock ended the session with a 5.3% loss and an intraday low of $40.20. The put side of our strangle, the July $42.50 puts (TYC-SV) are priced at $2.50bid/$2.65 ask. Our target to exit was $1.95 or higher. Our estimated cost for the strangle was $1.30.

Picked on June 03 at $ 44.89 *target achieved (strangle)
Change since picked: - 4.61
Earnings Date 08/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.9 million
 

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