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Call Updates

CF Inds. - CF - close: 152.23 chg: +7.76 stop: 137.45 *new*

Positive comments about the fundamentals of the potash and fertilizer industries from a Goldman Sachs analyst really energized the group today. Shares of CF opened at $145.06 and surged to $155.01 intraday. We have adjusted our "entry" price to reflect today's open. Wait for a pull back before considering new bullish positions. Our target is the $159.00 mark. Please note that we are adjusting the stop loss to $137.45.

Picked on July 08 at $145.06 *gap open entry
Change since picked: + 7.76
Earnings Date 07/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.7 million

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Fording Candn.Trust - FDG - cls: 75.62 chg: +0.27 stop: 69.90

Warning! The action in FDG today was bearish. The stock rallied to $80.41 before falling back to earth. This failed rally near $80.00 is very short-term bearish. At this point we would wait and watch for a new dip and a bounce in the $70-72.50 zone before considering new call positions. Our target is $84.00. More conservative traders, if you did open positions this morning, will want to strongly consider exiting early now and just cutting your losses early.

Picked on July 08 at $ 75.35
Change since picked: + 0.27
Earnings Date 07/23/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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Mosaic - MOS - cls: 137.04 chg: +5.92 stop: 118.99

MOS received a new "buy" rating today and combined with the positive analyst comments from Goldman Sachs about the fertilizer industry you can see why shares were up 4.5%. The stock gapped open at $133.57 so we have adjusted our "picked" price. Shares rallied to the $140 region before running out of steam. If you're looking for a new entry point wait for a dip and signs of a bounce first. We're setting two targets. Our first target is $144.00. Our second target is $158.00. Just remember that we do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on July 08 at $133.57 *gap open entry
Change since picked: + 5.92
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.0 million

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Research In Motion - RIMM - cls: 117.54 chg: -4.50 stop: 114.75

There were a couple of articles out today suggesting that RIMM's upcoming "Thunder" model of smart phones are not ready yet for public consumption. This may have contributed to the 3.6% decline in the stock price. Shares produced a failed rally at the 10-dma. This is bearish! The next stop is probably the $115 level. Wait for a bounce near $115. Actually, it you study the daily chart you could argue that RIMM is more likely to fall towards the $114.00-113.00 levels closer to the July lows and 200-dma. If you're willing to take the risk then adjust your stop loss under the July 7th low of $112.65. More conservative traders may just want to abandon ship given the market's roll over today. This is an aggressive play due to our risk-reward ratio.

Picked on July 08 at $122.04
Change since picked: - 4.50
Earnings Date 09/25/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 17.7 million

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CBOE Volatility Index - VIX - close: 25.23 chg: +2.08 stop:

As of yesterday the VIX looked like it was in trouble but that proved to be a momentary worry. Investors are growing more worried with the market's inability to find a bottom. This might be another bullish entry point. We were suggesting the August options. We were listing two targets. One target is $29.50 and a second one at $34.00.

Picked on June 30 at $ 23.95
Change since picked: + 1.28
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = n/a million
 

Put Updates

Amazon.com - AMZN - close: 70.61 chg: -4.43 stop: 73.85

The bounce in AMZN has failed near its 10-dma and the sell-off was really picking up steam this afternoon. This is a new two-month closing low for AMZN and the stock is poised to test the $70.00 mark tomorrow. Our suggested entry point to buy puts is at $69.75. If triggered our target is $62.50.

Picked on July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.2 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Alpha Nat. Res. - ANR - close: 89.18 chg: + 3.88 stop: n/a

ANR continues to trade with a lot of volatility. We have seven trading days left and ANR needs to be well above $105 or under $85 if we are to make a profit here. We're not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. This is a higher-risk strangle play with the options so expensive. The options we suggested were the July $105 calls (ANR-GA) and the July $85 puts (ANR-SQ). Our estimated cost was $9.40. We want to sell if either option hits $14.50.

Picked on June 15 at $ 94.25
Change since picked: - 5.07
Earnings Date 08/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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Chevron - CVX - close: 93.91 chg: -1.88 stop: n/a

CVX has very clearly broken lower from its consolidation phase. Today shares lost another 1.9% and closed under support near $95.00. We are not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. The options we suggested were the August $110 calls (CVX-HB) and the August $90 puts (CVX-TR). Our estimated cost is $2.20 (based on June 30th prices we needed 2 calls per 1 put). We want to sell if the puts $3.85 or if the calls hit $1.90. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher.

Picked on June 30 at $ 99.13
Change since picked: - 5.22
Earnings Date 08/01/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 13.3 million

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DIAMONDS - DIA - close: 111.66 chg: -2.08 stop: n/a

It was an ugly reversal day for the DIA. The markets erased Tuesday's gains. DIA fell through our suggested entry range again and we're not suggesting new positions. The options we suggested were the August $115 calls (DIA-HK) and the August $109 puts (DIA-TE). Our estimated cost is $4.35. We want to sell if either option hits $6.90 or more.

Picked on July 07 at $112.21
Change since picked: - 0.55
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 15.5 million

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iShares Brazil - EWZ - cls: 79.31 chg: -2.45 stop: n/a

The oversold bounce from the $80.00 in the EWZ has failed. Shares reversed into a 3% loss and closed under the $80 level. We are not suggesting new strangle positions. The options we suggested were the August $90 calls (EWZ-HR) and the August $75 puts (EWQ-TO). Our estimated cost is $3.95. We want to sell if either option hits $5.90.

Picked on July 03 at $ 83.06
Change since picked: - 3.75
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 13.6 million

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Garmin Ltd. - GRMN - close: 42.67 chg: -1.43 stop: n/a

The bounce in GRMN also reversed and shares are back inside their trading range. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The options we listed were the July $50 calls (GQR-GJ) and the July $40 puts (GQR-SH). Our estimated cost was $2.55. We want to sell if either option hits $ 4.75 or higher.

Picked on June 15 at $ 44.91
Change since picked: - 2.24
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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Internet Holders - HHH - cls: 50.96 change: -1.85 stop: n/a

The Internet Holders fell back today with a 3.5% loss. If the HHH trades near $50.00 again readers could open new strangle positions. Our suggested entry point was the $50.50-49.50 zone, which hasn't been hit yet. The options we suggested were the August $55 calls (HHH-HK) and the August $45 puts (HHH-TI). Our estimated cost is $1.60 (to be adjusted when triggered). We want to sell if either option hits $2.45.

Picked on July 03 at $ xx.xx
Change since picked: + 0.71
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 132 thousand

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KLA-Tencor - KLAC - close: 37.60 chg: -3.05 stop: n/a

We are finally seeing some movement in KLAC. The stock lost 7.6% following a Barrons article that KLAC may be losing market shares to AMAT. Plus, an earnings warning from MTSN did not help the semiconductor sector. KLAC has fallen out of its trading range. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. We listed two different strangles on KLAC.

Suggested Options:
KLAC Strangle #1) The options we listed were the July $42.50 calls (KCQ-GV) and the July $37.50 puts (KCQ-SU). Our estimated cost is $1.65 We want to sell if either option hits $3.00.

KLAC Strangle #2) The options we listed were the July $45.00 calls (KCQ-GI) and the July $35.00 puts (KCQ-SG). Our estimated cost is $0.70. We want to sell if either option hits $1.50.

Picked on June 22 at $ 40.07
Change since picked: - 2.47
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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Lehman Brothers - LEH - cls: 19.74 chg: -2.53 stop: n/a

Ouch! It was a very ugly day for the financials. Shares of LEH plunged more than 11% and closed under the $20.00 mark. Today's move gave us another chance to open strangles near $20.00. The options we suggested were the August $25 calls (LYH-HE) and the August $15 puts (LYH-TC). Our estimated cost is $2.54. We want to sell if either option hits $4.25 or more.

Picked on July 07 at $ 20.84
Change since picked: - 1.10
Earnings Date 09/18/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 44 million

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MarketVectors Agribusiness- MOO - close: 57.69 chg: +1.30 stop: n/a

Most of the agribusiness stocks bounced today but the rally was fading lower into the closing bell. We were suggesting readers open strangle positions in the $57.00-58.00 zone. The options we suggested were the August $62 calls (MYV-HJ) and the August $50 puts (MOO-TX). Our estimated cost is $2.10. We want to sell if either option hits $3.15.

Picked on July 03 at $ 57.25
Change since picked: + 0.44
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 745 thousand

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PowerShares QQQ - QQQQ - cls: 44.75 chg: -1.22 stop: n/a

Yesterday's powerful rally was squashed today with a 2.6% loss in the Qs. Our suggested entry zone was the $45.25-44.75 region. The options we suggested were the August $47 calls (QQQ-HU) and the August $43 puts (QQQ-TQ). Our estimated cost is $1.80. We want to sell if either option hits $2.75 or more.

Picked on July 07 at $ 44.90
Change since picked: - 0.15
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 148 million

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United States Oil - USO - cls: 109.65 chg: -0.27 stop: n/a

Crude oil didn't move much following a two-day sell-off and news that Iran fired some new test missiles today. The USO remains at a pivotal spot near the bottom of its bullish channel. Oil should either see a sharp rebound from the bottom of the channel or a sharper breakdown. What we need is a big move and soon. We have less than two weeks left before July options expire and we need to see a bigger move in oil and the USO if these strangles are going to pay off! We are not suggesting new positions at this time. We suggested two different strangles. The strangle with the wider strikes costs less but has higher risk.

USO Strangle #1) The options we listed were the July $115 calls (IYS-GK) and the July $105 puts (IYS-SA). Our estimated cost is $7.10 We want to sell if either option hits $9.75.

USO Strangle #2) The options we listed were the July $120 calls (QSO-GP) and the July $100 puts (IYS-SV). Our estimated cost is $4.10. We want to sell if either option hits $6.50.

Picked on June 22 at $109.14
Change since picked: + 0.51
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 12.5 million
 

Dropped Calls

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Dropped Puts

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Dropped Strangles

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