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Call Updates

CF Inds. - CF - close: 156.85 chg: +4.62 stop: 142.45 *new*

CF continues to rally and shares added another 3% today. The stock looks poised to hit our target at $159.00 tomorrow. We are adding a secondary target at $164.50. We suggest readers take a good portion of their position off the table at $159 but consider leaving a small position with the higher target. Our new stop loss is $142.45.

Picked on July 08 at $145.06 *gap open entry
Change since picked: +11.79
Earnings Date 07/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.7 million

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Fording Candn.Trust - FDG - cls: 79.66 chg: +4.04 stop: 69.90

It was another volatile day for FDG. The stock dipped to $71.90 only to rebound sharply and challenge the $80 level again. We suggested yesterday that readers look for a bounce in the $70-72.50 zone as a new entry point and we got it. Our target is $84.00.

Picked on July 08 at $ 75.35
Change since picked: + 4.31
Earnings Date 07/23/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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Gold ETF - GLD - cls: 93.53 chg: +2.03 stop: 89.45

The U.S. dollar slipped lower today and that gave gold a boost. The GLD added more than 2% and closed near its highs for the session. Our target is the $97.00 mark but the $95.00 level could be overhead resistance and more conservative traders may want to jump out near $95.

Picked on July 09 at $ 91.50
Change since picked: + 2.03
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 9.8 million

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Mosaic - MOS - cls: 140.09 chg: +3.05 stop: 118.99

MOS traded in a $6.00 range today and bulls were buying the dip late this afternoon. Shares look set to breakout over $140 soon. We're setting two targets. Our first target is $144.00. Our second target is $158.00. Just remember that we do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on July 08 at $133.57 *gap open entry
Change since picked: + 8.97
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.0 million

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CBOE Volatility Index - VIX - close: 25.59 chg: +0.36 stop:

The markets may have closed higher but that didn't stop the volatility index from posting a gain too. The tug-of-war between the bulls and the bears isn't over yet. We were suggesting the August options. We were listing two targets. One target is $29.50 and a second one at $34.00.

Picked on June 30 at $ 23.95
Change since picked: + 1.64
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = n/a million
 

Put Updates

Apple Inc. - AAPL - close: 176.63 chg: +2.38 stop: 181.01

It looks like some of the 3G iPhone hype might be coming alive again. The media is already talking about the lines forming at Apple stores across the country for tomorrow's launch of the new phone. Shares of AAPL plunged late this afternoon to $171.37 but suddenly found a bid and closed up 1.3% by closing bell. We added this stock on Wednesday following the bearish failed rally pattern but we warned readers that if AAPL didn't see some follow through lower soon we'd exit early. We're going to see what happens tomorrow before deciding if we should pull the plug. Look for another failed rally under $180 as a potential entry point to buy puts. Our target is $165.00. More aggressive traders could aim for the $160 region. We will be expecting a bounce either at the 200-dma or at $160.

Picked on July 09 at $174.25
Change since picked: + 2.38
Earnings Date 07/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 31.4 million

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Amazon.com - AMZN - close: 70.63 chg: +0.02 stop: 73.85

Be careful here. AMZN broke down under support at $70.00 on an intraday basis and hit our trigger to buy puts at $69.75. Yet the stock bounced back to close almost unchanged. Today's move could be a bear trap (that we are now caught in). A failed rally in the $72.00-72.50 zone might prove to be a new bearish entry point but traders need to be cautious. If the market suddenly surges then AMZN will surely follow. Our target is $62.50.

Picked on July 10 at $ 69.75 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.88
Earnings Date 07/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.2 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Alpha Nat. Res. - ANR - close: 91.84 chg: + 2.66 stop: n/a

If ANR can rally past the $94-95 region we'd expect it to continue toward $100 and possible the recent highs. Unfortunately, we only have a few days left before July options expire and we need to see some big moves yet from ANR. We're not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. This is a higher-risk strangle play with the options so expensive. The options we suggested were the July $105 calls (ANR-GA) and the July $85 puts (ANR-SQ). Our estimated cost was $9.40. We want to sell if either option hits $14.50.

Picked on June 15 at $ 94.25
Change since picked: - 2.41
Earnings Date 08/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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Chevron - CVX - close: 96.25 chg: +2.34 stop: n/a

A massive rally in crude oil lifted the energy stocks and CVX rose almost 2.5%. We are not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. The options we suggested were the August $110 calls (CVX-HB) and the August $90 puts (CVX-TR). Our estimated cost is $2.20 (based on June 30th prices we needed 2 calls per 1 put). We want to sell if the puts $3.85 or if the calls hit $1.90. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher.

Picked on June 30 at $ 99.13
Change since picked: - 2.88
Earnings Date 08/01/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 13.3 million

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DIAMONDS - DIA - close: 112.22 chg: +0.56 stop: n/a

It's been three days and we're right back to where we started. If you're considering new positions this is the spot to open them in the $112.00-113.00 zone. The options we suggested were the August $115 calls (DIA-HK) and the August $109 puts (DIA-TE). Our estimated cost is $4.35. We want to sell if either option hits $6.90 or more.

Picked on July 07 at $112.21
Change since picked: + 0.01
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 15.5 million

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iShares Brazil - EWZ - cls: 82.15 chg: +2.84 stop: n/a

The EWZ, like most of the market, can't decide which direction to go. Shares have been churning sideways in a volatile fashion for three days. We are not suggesting new strangle positions. The options we suggested were the August $90 calls (EWZ-HR) and the August $75 puts (EWQ-TO). Our estimated cost is $3.95. We want to sell if either option hits $5.90.

Picked on July 03 at $ 83.06
Change since picked: - 0.91
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 13.6 million

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Garmin Ltd. - GRMN - close: 43.67 chg: +1.00 stop: n/a

GRMN still acts like it wants to rally higher and shares bounced from the $42.00 region again. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The options we listed were the July $50 calls (GQR-GJ) and the July $40 puts (GQR-SH). Our estimated cost was $2.55. We want to sell if either option hits $ 4.75 or higher.

Picked on June 15 at $ 44.91
Change since picked: - 1.24
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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Internet Holders - HHH - cls: 50.88 change: -0.88 stop: n/a

There was no real movement in the HHH today but the stock did finally hit our entry zone in the $50.50-49.50 range. The play is now open. The options we suggested were the August $55 calls (HHH-HK) and the August $45 puts (HHH-TI). Our estimated cost is $1.65. We want to sell if either option hits $2.45.

Picked on July 03 at $ 50.50
Change since picked: + 0.38
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 132 thousand

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KLA-Tencor - KLAC - close: 38.74 chg: +1.14 stop: n/a

The semiconductor sector and the NASDAQ bounced on Thursday but KLAC out performed them both with a 3% gain. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. We listed two different strangles on KLAC.

Suggested Options:
KLAC Strangle #1) The options we listed were the July $42.50 calls (KCQ-GV) and the July $37.50 puts (KCQ-SU). Our estimated cost is $1.65 We want to sell if either option hits $3.00.

KLAC Strangle #2) The options we listed were the July $45.00 calls (KCQ-GI) and the July $35.00 puts (KCQ-SG). Our estimated cost is $0.70. We want to sell if either option hits $1.50.

Picked on June 22 at $ 40.07
Change since picked: - 1.33
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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Lehman Brothers - LEH - cls: 17.30 chg: -2.44 stop: n/a

Rumors that PIMCO was reducing their business with LEH sent shares of LEH to an intraday low of $15.63. Volume was huge at 153 million shares and the stock pared its losses to close with a 12% decline. We are not suggesting new strangle positions in LEH. The options we suggested were the August $25 calls (LYH-HE) and the August $15 puts (LYH-TC). Our estimated cost is $2.54. We want to sell if either option hits $4.25 or more.

Picked on July 07 at $ 20.84
Change since picked: - 3.54
Earnings Date 09/18/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 44 million

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MarketVectors Agribusiness- MOO - close: 57.40 chg: -0.29 stop: n/a

The agribusiness ETF is still trying to bounce. We were suggesting readers open strangle positions in the $57.00-58.00 zone. The options we suggested were the August $62 calls (MYV-HJ) and the August $50 puts (MOO-TX). Our estimated cost is $2.10. We want to sell if either option hits $3.15.

Picked on July 03 at $ 57.25
Change since picked: + 0.15
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 745 thousand

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PowerShares QQQ - QQQQ - cls: 45.28 chg: +0.53 stop: n/a

If you were looking for another entry point near $45.00 you got it today. The Qs are still stuck in their trading range but now instead of a breakdown it looks like they want to breakout higher. Our suggested entry zone was the $45.25-44.75 region. The options we suggested were the August $47 calls (QQQ-HU) and the August $43 puts (QQQ-TQ). Our estimated cost is $1.80. We want to sell if either option hits $2.75 or more.

Picked on July 07 at $ 44.90
Change since picked: + 0.38
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 148 million

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United States Oil - USO - cls: 114.34 chg: +4.69 stop: n/a

Crude oil just exploded higher late this afternoon. The USO rallied more than 4.2%. Oil and the USO are bouncing from near the bottom of its bullish channel. We have just over one week left before July options expire and we need to see a bigger move in oil and the USO if these strangles are going to pay off! We are not suggesting new positions at this time. We suggested two different strangles. The strangle with the wider strikes costs less but has higher risk.

USO Strangle #1) The options we listed were the July $115 calls (IYS-GK) and the July $105 puts (IYS-SA). Our estimated cost is $7.10 We want to sell if either option hits $9.75.

USO Strangle #2) The options we listed were the July $120 calls (QSO-GP) and the July $100 puts (IYS-SV). Our estimated cost is $4.10. We want to sell if either option hits $6.50.

Picked on June 22 at $109.14
Change since picked: + 5.20
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 12.5 million
 

Dropped Calls

Research In Motion - RIMM - cls: 117.54 chg: -4.50 stop: 114.75

Late this afternoon shares of RIMM suddenly spiked under the $115.00 level and hit our stop loss at $114.75. Yesterday we discussed the possibility that RIMM would dip to its 200-dma before bouncing and that is what occurred today. If you had a more aggressive stop loss under the 200-dma you're still in this play. We're going to watch for a new move over $122.50 before considering new bullish positions.

Picked on July 08 at $122.04 /stopped out 114.75
Change since picked: - 4.50
Earnings Date 09/25/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 17.7 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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