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Call Updates

CF Inds. - CF - close: 159.05 chg: +2.20 stop: 147.45 *new*

Target exceeded! CF continued to rally as expected but it was another volatile session with CF trading in a $7.00 range. Bulls bought the dip at $153.00. Our first target was $159.00 and CF hit $160.50 intraday. Our secondary, more aggressive target is the $164.50 mark. We are raising the stop loss to $147.45. We strongly suggest you take some profit off the table if you have not done so already. We're not suggesting new plays at these levels. FYI: More aggressive traders may want to aim for the $170 region or even aim for the top of the channel closer to $180.

Suggested Options:
We're not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on July 08 at $145.06 *gap open entry/1st target hit
Change since picked: +13.99
Earnings Date 07/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.7 million

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Fording Candn.Trust - FDG - cls: 81.38 chg: +1.72 stop: 74.45*new*

Many of the coal stocks continue to bounce and FDG hit an intraday high of $83.00 on Friday. Our target is the $84.00 level. More conservative traders may want to start doing some profit taking now. We're upping our stop loss to $74.45 and we're not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the $86-90 zone but we suspect the $85 region might offer some resistance.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new positions in FDG at this time.

Picked on July 08 at $ 75.35
Change since picked: + 6.03
Earnings Date 07/23/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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Gold ETF - GLD - cls: 95.16 chg: +1.63 stop: 89.45

Gold surged to a new three-month high on Friday. The combination of geopolitical concerns with Iran, a new high in oil, another big drop in the U.S. dollar, and increasing worries over the U.S. financial sector all contributed to gold's strength. The GLD closed above potential resistance at $95.00, which is bullish. The intraday high was $95.50. Our target is the $97.00 level. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the $99.50-100.00 zone instead.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new bullish positions in GLD at this time.

Picked on July 09 at $ 91.50
Change since picked: + 3.66
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 9.8 million

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Hess Corp. - HES - close: 111.76 chg: -1.22 stop: 107.24

HES did not deliver much of a performance when you consider that crude oil hit another new record high. The stock temporarily traded above potential resistance at $115.00 and then dipped back to its 100-dma again. The afternoon bounce could be used as a new bullish entry point but more conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. We're leaving our stop at $107.24 for now. We have two targets. Our first target is $119.75. Our second target, if HES can breakthrough resistance near $120.00, is the $124.50 mark. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the August calls but plan to exit before the July earnings announcement.

BUY CALL AUG 110.00 IGG-HB open interest=2110 current ask $9.10
BUY CALL AUG 115.00 IGG-HC open interest=2335 current ask $6.70
BUY CALL AUG 120.00 IGG-HD open interest=2958 current ask $4.70

Picked on July 10 at $112.98
Change since picked: - 1.22
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.3 million

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Mosaic - MOS - cls: 141.81 chg: +1.72 stop: 133.45 *new*

Traders bought the intraday swoon at $136.77 on Friday. The bounce back over $140 is bullish. If there is any follow through on Monday then MOS could hit our first target at $144.00. If you are looking for a new entry point you could use this bounce but consider a tighter stop in the $134-135 zone. We're raising our stop loss to $133.45. Our second target is the $158.00 mark. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the top of the bullish channel in the $175-180 region. Remember, we do not want to hold over the July 28th earnings report.

Suggested Options:
We would use the August calls but exit ahead of the July earnings.

Picked on July 08 at $133.57 *gap open entry
Change since picked: + 8.24
Earnings Date 07/28/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.0 million

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CBOE Volatility Index - VIX - close: 27.49 chg: +1.90 stop:

It's been a wild ride thus far in the VIX. Concerns over FRE/FNM and the financial sector sent the VIX to an intraday high of 29.44 on Friday. It was only 6 cents short of our first target at 29.50. Readers may want to consider taking some money off the table if the VIX trades over 29.00 again. We were suggesting the August options. We were listing two targets. One target is 29.50 and a second one at 34.00.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new positions at this time but if you think the VIX could spike toward the 35 region again then this may indeed be a new entry point for you.

Picked on June 30 at $ 23.95
Change since picked: + 3.54
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = n/a million
 

Put Updates

Apple Inc. - AAPL - close: 172.58 chg: -4.05 stop: 181.01

If you read tonight's market wrap then you already know that AAPL's 3G iPhone launch did not go quite as planned. The network and activation servers were overloaded and failed. It's a temporary problem but didn't help shares of AAPL on Friday. The stock traded lower and still looks poised to drip toward its 200-dma. Today that 200-dma is at 164.38. Our target is the $165.00 mark. If AAPL does trade lower we'll be considering bullish trading ideas in the $164-160 zone.

Suggested Options:
We were suggesting the August puts but plan to exit ahead of the July 21st earnings report.

Picked on July 09 at $174.25
Change since picked: - 1.67
Earnings Date 07/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 31.4 million

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Amazon.com - AMZN - close: 68.54 chg: -2.09 stop: 72.65 *new*

AMZN's afternoon rebound toward $70.00 failed and this looks like another entry point to buy puts. We are adjusting our stop loss to $72.65. It could be a volatile week with the onset of earnings season and news out of the tech sector could influence AMZN's share price. The new trend is down but be careful. Our target is $62.50.

Suggested Options:
We were suggesting the August puts but plan to exit ahead of the late July earnings report.

Picked on July 10 at $ 69.75 *triggered
Change since picked: - 1.21
Earnings Date 07/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.2 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Alpha Nat. Res. - ANR - close: 96.80 chg: + 4.96 stop: n/a

It was another strong day for ANR and shares bounced sharply from their dip near $90.00 on Friday. Unfortunately, we are very quickly running out of time for this strangle play. Thus we're going to reduce our exit target to breakeven at $9.40. We're not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. This is a higher-risk strangle play with the options so expensive. The options we suggested were the July $105 calls (ANR-GA) and the July $85 puts (ANR-SQ). Our estimated cost was $9.40.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new strangles at this time.

Picked on June 15 at $ 94.25
Change since picked: + 2.55
Earnings Date 08/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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Chevron - CVX - close: 92.25 chg: -4.00 stop: n/a

CVX plunged on Friday but managed to pare its losses to just -4% after bouncing from the 200-dma. The August $90 puts spike to $3.20. We are not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. The options we suggested were the August $110 calls (CVX-HB) and the August $90 puts (CVX-TR). Our estimated cost is $2.20 (based on June 30th prices we needed 2 calls per 1 put). We want to sell if the puts $3.85 or if the calls hit $1.90. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new strangles at this time.

Picked on June 30 at $ 99.13
Change since picked: - 6.88
Earnings Date 08/01/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 13.3 million

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DIAMONDS - DIA - close: 111.00 chg: -1.22 stop: n/a

The DJIA tagged another new 52-week low. Volume is rising as stocks keep falling. We are not suggesting new strangle positions on the DIA at this time. The options we suggested were the August $115 calls (DIA-HK) and the August $109 puts (DIA-TE). Our estimated cost is $4.35. We want to sell if either option hits $6.90 or more.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new strangles in the DIA at this time.

Picked on July 07 at $112.21
Change since picked: - 1.21
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 15.5 million

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iShares Brazil - EWZ - cls: 81.64 chg: -0.51 stop: n/a

The EWZ tried to bounce on Friday but failed at its 200-dma. The trend remains lower. We are not suggesting new strangle positions. The options we suggested were the August $90 calls (EWZ-HR) and the August $75 puts (EWQ-TO). Our estimated cost is $3.95. We want to sell if either option hits $5.90.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new positions in EWZ at this time.

Picked on July 03 at $ 83.06
Change since picked: - 1.42
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 13.6 million

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Corning Inc. - GLW - close: 20.28 chg: +0.12 stop: n/a

GLW bounced around the $20.00 region on Friday providing us an opportunity to open strangle positions. Lehman Brothers came out with some positive comments suggesting the pull back to $20.00 was a buying opportunity in GLW. Aggressive traders will be tempted to buy calls here with a stop loss under $19.69 (Friday's low). Even though GLW is overdue for a big bounce we don't want to bet on it so we're suggesting a strangle. Earnings are late July and we do plan on holding over the report unless the stock hits our target first. Try and open strangle positions as close to $20.00 as possible but we would use the $20.25-19.75 zone. The options we suggested were the August $22.50 calls (GLW-HX) and the August $17.50 puts (GLW-TW). Our estimated cost is $0.75. We want to sell if either option hits $1.50. Try and keep your investment balanced on both sides of the trade.

Suggested Options:
See details above.

Picked on July 10 at $ 20.16
Change since picked: + 0.12
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 15.9 million

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Garmin Ltd. - GRMN - close: 42.66 chg: -1.01 stop: n/a

This is it. We're down to our last week with GRMN before July options expire. Due to our dwindling time frame we're adjusting our exit target to breakeven at $2.55. The options we listed were the July $50 calls (GQR-GJ) and the July $40 puts (GQR-SH). Our estimated cost was $2.55.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new plays on GRMN at this time.

Picked on June 15 at $ 44.91
Change since picked: - 2.25
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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Internet Holders - HHH - cls: 50.63 change: -0.25 stop: n/a

We're still not seeing a lot of movement yet in the HHH. The chart is showing a lot of contrasting signals with a bearish failed rally last week and yet Friday's bounce could be the second part to a bullish double bottom. We were suggesting strangle positions in the $50.50-49.50 zone. The options we suggested were the August $55 calls (HHH-HK) and the August $45 puts (HHH-TI). Our estimated cost is $1.65. We want to sell if either option hits $2.45.

Suggested Options:
See above.

Picked on July 03 at $ 50.50
Change since picked: + 0.13
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 132 thousand

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KLA-Tencor - KLAC - close: 37.79 chg: -0.95 stop: n/a

We are down to our last five days with these strangles on KLAC. Please note that we're adjusting our exit targets. For strangle #1 we're moving the exit target from $3.00 to $2.25. For strangle #2 we're moving the target from $1.50 to $1.15. More conservative traders may want to move their targets to breakeven. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. We listed two different strangles on KLAC.

Suggested Options:
KLAC Strangle #1) The options we listed were the July $42.50 calls (KCQ-GV) and the July $37.50 puts (KCQ-SU). Our estimated cost is $1.65 We want to sell if either option hits $3.00.

KLAC Strangle #2) The options we listed were the July $45.00 calls (KCQ-GI) and the July $35.00 puts (KCQ-SG). Our estimated cost is $0.70. We want to sell if either option hits $1.50.

Picked on June 22 at $ 40.07
Change since picked: - 2.28
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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MarketVectors Agribusiness- MOO - close: 57.65 chg: +0.25 stop: n/a

We're still not seeing any movement yet in the MOO. The recent oscillation sideways has certainly provided some entry points for us to open strangle positions. We were suggesting readers open strangle positions in the $57.00-58.00 zone. The options we suggested were the August $62 calls (MYV-HJ) and the August $50 puts (MOO-TX). Our estimated cost is $2.10. We want to sell if either option hits $3.15.

Suggested Options:
See above.

Picked on July 03 at $ 57.25
Change since picked: + 0.40
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 745 thousand

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PowerShares QQQ - QQQQ - cls: 44.56 chg: -0.72 stop: n/a

The Qs continued to drift lower inside their bearish channel. Our suggested entry zone was the $45.25-44.75 region. The options we suggested were the August $47 calls (QQQ-HU) and the August $43 puts (QQQ-TQ). Our estimated cost is $1.80. We want to sell if either option hits $2.75 or more.

Suggested Options:
See above.

Picked on July 07 at $ 44.90
Change since picked: - 0.34
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 148 million

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United States Oil - USO - cls: 117.39 chg: +3.05 stop: n/a

The combination of a plunging dollar, fears over an escalation with Iran, and general market uncertainty helped send crude oil to another record high on Friday. The USO hit $119.17. We're down to our last five days before July options expire. We're adjusting our exit for USO strangle #1 to $9.00. We're adjusting our exit for USO strangle #2 to breakeven at $4.10. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. We suggested two different strangles. The strangle with the wider strikes costs less but has higher risk.

Suggested Options:
USO Strangle #1) The options we listed were the July $115 calls (IYS-GK) and the July $105 puts (IYS-SA). Our estimated cost is $7.10 We want to sell if either option hits $9.75.

USO Strangle #2) The options we listed were the July $120 calls (QSO-GP) and the July $100 puts (IYS-SV). Our estimated cost is $4.10. We want to sell if either option hits $6.50.

Picked on June 22 at $109.14
Change since picked: + 8.25
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 12.5 million
 

Dropped Calls

None
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

Lehman Brothers - LEH - cls: 14.43 chg: -2.87 stop: n/a

Target exceeded! Concerns over the financial sector and anything with mortgage exposure is really heating up again. LEH got pummeled (again) for a 16.5% loss. Shares hit $13.29 intraday on Friday. That sent the August $15 puts to a high of $5.20. Our target to exit was $4.25. If you have not exited yet then consider jumping out on Monday morning. The IndyMac bank closure news over the weekend could send financials gapping lower on Monday. The options we suggested were the August $25 calls (LYH-HE) and the August $15 puts (LYH-TC). Our estimated cost is $2.54.

Picked on July 07 at $ 20.84
Change since picked: - 6.41
Earnings Date 09/18/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 44 million
 

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