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Call Updates

CurrencyShares Euro - FXE - cls: 159.44 chg: +1.45 stop: 156.75

The U.S. dollar tried to bounce today but closed around unchanged on the session. This sent the FXE to an intraday low of $158.81 before bouncing higher. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. We are suggesting two different entry points to get long calls on the FXE. Our first entry point is a breakout to new highs at $160.55. Our second entry point would be a pull back to $158.00. Our stop loss is at $156.75. If we get filled at $160.55 we'll adjust the stop higher. Our five-week target is $164.50. Our ten-week target is $169.50. We are suggesting the August and September calls. Strikes are available at $1.00 increments.

Picked on July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 909 thousand

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Gold ETF - GLD - cls: 95.91 chg: +0.75 stop: 91.50 *new*

Investor fears continue to edge higher, especially with news of a major bank failure and the potential for more on the horizon. Gold rallied and the GLD added 0.8%. The intraday high was $96.20. Our target is the $97.00 level. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the $99.50-100.00 zone instead. We are raising our stop loss to $91.50.

Picked on July 09 at $ 91.50
Change since picked: + 4.41
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 9.8 million

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Hess Corp. - HES - close: 111.25 chg: -0.51 stop: 107.24

We are starting to grow more concerned with HES. The stock continues to trade in its trading range and remains above technical support at its 100-dma. Unfortunately the technical picture seems to be getting worse. We're not suggesting new positions at this time! More conservative traders may want to raise their stop loss toward $109.25. We have two targets. Our first target is $119.75. Our second target, if HES can breakthrough resistance near $120.00, is the $124.50 mark. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on July 10 at $112.98
Change since picked: - 1.73
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.3 million

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Mosaic - MOS - cls: 145.69 chg: +3.88 stop: 135.75 *new*

First target exceeded. MOS and many of the fertilizer stocks out performed the market today. Shares of MOS rallied to $146.92. Our first target was the $144.00 mark. We strongly suggest that readers take some money off the table now. We're not suggesting new positions at this time but a dip or a bounce near $140 might be a new entry point just use a tighter stop loss. Speaking of stops we're raising ours to $135.75. FYI: More aggressive traders may want to aim for the top of the bullish channel in the $175-180 region. Remember, we do not want to hold over the July 28th earnings report.

Picked on July 08 at $133.57 *1st target hit $144.00
Change since picked: +12.12
Earnings Date 07/28/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.0 million

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CBOE Volatility Index - VIX - close: 28.48 chg: +0.99 stop:

The VIX is still inching higher but hasn't quite hit our first target at $29.50. Readers may still want to consider taking some money off the table here. We were suggesting the August options. We were listing two targets. One target is 29.50 and a second one at 34.00.

Picked on June 30 at $ 23.95
Change since picked: + 4.53
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = n/a million
 

Put Updates

Apple Inc. - AAPL - close: 173.88 chg: +1.30 stop: 181.01

It was a rocky day for AAPL. The company announced that they had sold more than one million of the new 3G iPhones in just three days but that failed to truly boost the share price. Yes, the stock did gain 0.7% but it failed under $180 again with the intraday high at $179.30. This is a bearish move and looks like a new entry point for traders to buy puts. Today that 200-dma is at 164.49. Our target is the $165.00 mark. If AAPL does trade lower we'll be considering bullish trading ideas in the $164-160 zone.

Picked on July 09 at $174.25
Change since picked: - 0.37
Earnings Date 07/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 31.4 million

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Amazon.com - AMZN - close: 66.28 chg: -2.26 stop: 72.65

AMZN sinks again. The stock lost another 3.3% and closed near its lows for the day. More conservative traders may want to think about an early exit near $65.00. Our target is $62.50.

Picked on July 10 at $ 69.75 *triggered
Change since picked: - 3.47
Earnings Date 07/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.2 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Alpha Nat. Res. - ANR - close: 98.72 chg: + 1.92 stop: n/a

ANR continues to rebound but it needs to move faster for us. We have four days left for July options. We're not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. This is a higher-risk strangle play with the options so expensive. The options we suggested were the July $105 calls (ANR-GA) and the July $85 puts (ANR-SQ). Our estimated cost was $9.40. We've adjusted our target to breakeven at $9.40.

Picked on June 15 at $ 94.25
Change since picked: + 4.47
Earnings Date 08/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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Chevron - CVX - close: 92.80 chg: +0.55 stop: n/a

CVX delivered a minor bounce after Friday's test of the 200-dma. We are not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. The options we suggested were the August $110 calls (CVX-HB) and the August $90 puts (CVX-TR). Our estimated cost is $2.20 (based on June 30th prices we needed 2 calls per 1 put). We want to sell if the puts $3.85 or if the calls hit $1.90. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher.

Picked on June 30 at $ 99.13
Change since picked: - 6.33
Earnings Date 08/01/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 13.3 million

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DIAMONDS - DIA - close: 110.50 chg: -0.50 stop: n/a

The early morning bounce in the markets failed and the DIA has produced another bearish candlestick. We are not suggesting new strangle positions on the DIA at this time. The options we suggested were the August $115 calls (DIA-HK) and the August $109 puts (DIA-TE). Our estimated cost is $4.35. We want to sell if either option hits $6.90 or more.

Picked on July 07 at $112.21
Change since picked: - 1.71
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 15.5 million

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Eaton - ETN - close: 79.89 change: -1.04 stop: n/a

Today was a good day for us. ETN's drop and afternoon rebound gave us multiple chances to open strangle positions close to the $80.00 mark. We are no longer suggesting new positions. Tomorrow is the big day when ETN reports earnings before the opening bell. Wall Street expects the company to report a profit of $1.94 a share. We listed two different strangles. One was a very aggressive strangle with July options. The other was a strangle
with August options.

The options we suggested for the aggressive July strangle, with just four days left before options expire, were the July $85 calls (ETN-GQ) and the July $75 puts (ETN-SO). Our estimated cost is $1.35. We want to sell if either option hits $2.50.

The options we suggested for the August strangle were the August $85 calls (ETN-HQ) and the August $75 puts (ETN-TO). Estimated cost with August options is $4.45. We want to sell if either option hits $7.75.

Picked on July 13 at $ 80.93
Change since picked: - 1.04
Earnings Date 07/15/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million

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iShares Brazil - EWZ - cls: 82.58 chg: +0.94 stop: n/a

It's been a bumpy few days for the EWZ but overall we haven't seen any real movement. Today shares bounced up to their 200-dma. We are not suggesting new strangle positions. The options we suggested were the August $90 calls (EWZ-HR) and the August $75 puts (EWQ-TO). Our estimated cost is $3.95. We want to sell if either option hits $5.90.

Picked on July 03 at $ 83.06
Change since picked: - 0.48
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 13.6 million

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Corning Inc. - GLW - close: 19.82 chg: -0.46 stop: n/a

Negative analyst comments from Citigroup helped send GLW to a 2.2% loss. The stock painted another bearish candle with a failed rally and a close under $20.00 for the first time in over a year. Earnings are late July and we do plan on holding over the report unless the options hit our target first. Try and open strangle positions as close to $20.00 as possible but we would use the $20.25-19.75 zone. The options we suggested were the August $22.50 calls (GLW-HX) and the August $17.50 puts (GLW-TW). Our estimated cost is $0.75. We want to sell if either option hits $1.50. Try and keep your investment balanced on both sides of the trade.

Picked on July 10 at $ 20.16
Change since picked: - 0.34
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 15.9 million

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Garmin Ltd. - GRMN - close: 42.05 chg: -0.61 stop: n/a

At this point we don't have much hope for GRMN. We warned readers days ago to consider exiting early to try and salvage any capital. GRMN is stuck in its trading range and with options expiration this week odds are pretty good it will stay stuck in this range the rest of the week. If it did "break" from the range it would probably get pinned to $45.00 or $40.00 on Friday. The options we listed were the July $50 calls (GQR-GJ) and the July $40 puts (GQR-SH). Our estimated cost was $2.55 and we have adjusted our exit to breakeven at $2.55.

Picked on June 15 at $ 44.91
Change since picked: - 2.86
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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Internet Holders - HHH - cls: 49.13 change: -1.50 stop: n/a

Declines across the Internet sector, especially in ETFC and MFE, led the HHH to a 2.9% loss. We had been suggesting strangle positions in the $50.50-49.50 zone. The options we suggested were the August $55 calls (HHH-HK) and the August $45 puts (HHH-TI). Our estimated cost is $1.65. We want to sell if either option hits $2.45.

Picked on July 03 at $ 50.50
Change since picked: - 1.37
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 132 thousand

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KLA-Tencor - KLAC - close: 37.33 chg: -0.46 stop: n/a

KLAC just barely tagged a new relative low today. We're almost out of time with these July options. Please note that we recently adjusted our exit targets. For strangle #1 we're moved the exit target from $3.00 to $2.25. For strangle #2 we're moved the target from $1.50 to $1.15. More conservative traders may want to move their targets to breakeven. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. We listed two different strangles on KLAC.

Suggested Options:
KLAC Strangle #1) The options we listed were the July $42.50 calls (KCQ-GV) and the July $37.50 puts (KCQ-SU). Our estimated cost is $1.65 We want to sell if either option hits $2.25

KLAC Strangle #2) The options we listed were the July $45.00 calls (KCQ-GI) and the July $35.00 puts (KCQ-SG). Our estimated cost is $0.70. We want to sell if either option hits $1.15.

Picked on June 22 at $ 40.07
Change since picked: - 2.74
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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MarketVectors Agribusiness- MOO - close: 58.29 chg: +0.64 stop: n/a

Many of the agribusiness stocks managed to bounce today. The MOO added 1.1% by the closing bell. We were suggesting readers open strangle positions in the $57.00-58.00 zone. The options we suggested were the August $62 calls (MYV-HJ) and the August $50 puts (MOO-TX). Our estimated cost is $2.10. We want to sell if either option hits $3.15.

Picked on July 03 at $ 57.25
Change since picked: + 1.04
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 745 thousand

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PowerShares QQQ - QQQQ - cls: 44.23 chg: -0.33 stop: n/a

The market's early morning rally failed and stocks look poised to move lower. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The options we suggested were the August $47 calls (QQQ-HU) and the August $43 puts (QQQ-TQ). Our estimated cost is $1.80. We want to sell if either option hits $2.75 or more.

Picked on July 07 at $ 44.90
Change since picked: - 0.67
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 148 million

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UBS Ag - UBS - close: 18.64 change: -0.85 stop: 20.75

Shares of UBS spiked open to $19.87 and then faded. The move produced yet another failed rally under its 10-dma. More aggressive traders might be tempted to just buy puts and use a tight stop above $20.00. We had suggested a strangle with a $21.00-19.00 entry range. We listed two different strangles.

UBS Strangle #1) This uses the August $22.50 calls (UBS-HX) and $17.50 puts (UBS-TW). Our estimated cost was $1.90. We want to sell if either option hits $3.00.

UBS Strangle #2) This uses the August $25.00 calls (UBS-HE) and $15.00 puts (UBS-TC). Our estimated cost was $0.90. We want to sell if either option hits $1.90.

Picked on July 13 at $19.49
Change since picked: - 0.85
Earnings Date 08/12/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.3 million

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United States Oil - USO - cls: 117.48 chg: +0.09 stop: n/a

Oil didn't move much today. That's not good news for this strangle play. We're down to our last four days before July options expire. We're adjusting our exit for USO strangle #1 to $9.00. We're adjusting our exit for USO strangle #2 to breakeven at $4.10. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. We suggested two different strangles. The strangle with the wider strikes costs less but has higher risk.

USO Strangle #1) The options we listed were the July $115 calls (IYS-GK) and the July $105 puts (IYS-SA). Our estimated cost is $7.10 We want to sell if either option hits $9.00.

USO Strangle #2) The options we listed were the July $120 calls (QSO-GP) and the July $100 puts (IYS-SV). Our estimated cost is $4.10. We want to sell if either option hits $4.10.

Picked on June 22 at $109.14
Change since picked: + 8.34
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 12.5 million

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FinancialSector SPDR - XLF - cls: 17.72 chg: -0.96 stop: n/a

Surprise! Instead of gapping lower the XLF actually gapped higher thanks to news headlines over the weekend. Unfortunately the strength quickly faded. We had suggested readers open positions on the gap down or wait five minutes after the open and then open positions. Well, we didn't get the gap down so if you waited five minutes then our entry price is around $19.12. Our strategy also said to adjust the options based on our entry. With an entry price near $19.00 the options in our strangle should be the August $21.00 calls (XLF-HU) and the August $17.00 puts (XJZ-TQ). Our estimated cost was $1.22. We want to sell if either option hits $2.85.

Picked on July 14 at $ 19.12
Change since picked: - 1.40
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 128 million
 

Dropped Calls

CF Inds. - CF - close: 165.09 chg: +6.04 stop: 147.45

Target exceeded - again! CF displayed plenty of relative strength on Monday with a 3.8% gain. The stock rallied to an intraday high of $166.21. Our secondary target was the $164.50 mark. The stock hit our primary target at $159.00 last week. As we suggested earlier, more aggressive traders may want to aim for the $170 region or the top of the bullish channel in the $180 area.

Picked on July 08 at $145.06 *gap open entry/2nd target hit
Change since picked: +20.03
Earnings Date 07/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.7 million

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Fording Candn.Trust - FDG - cls: 83.24 chg: +1.86 stop: 74.45

Target exceeded. Shares of FDG surged to $84.25 this morning. Our target was the $84.00 mark. Volume has been declining on the sell-off which suggests the bounce may not last very long. We're watching the $85-86 zone to be potential resistance.

Picked on July 08 at $ 75.35 /target hit $84.00
Change since picked: + 7.89
Earnings Date 07/23/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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