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Call Updates

CurrencyShares Euro - FXE - cls: 158.61 chg: +0.16 stop: 156.75

The FXE came close to our entry point today. This ETF traded to $158.09 before bouncing. Volume was extremely low on the session. If you're bearish on the Euro it is possible that the currency is building a big bearish double top pattern with the peak in April and peak this week. However, we'd wait for a drop under the 100-dma before considering bearish positions. Until then the trend is bullish. We have two entry points suggested. One is a dip to $158.00. The other entry point is a rise past $160.55. Our five-week target is $164.50. Our ten-week target is $169.50. We are suggesting the August and September calls however we would prefer the September options. The FXE doesn't move super fast. Strikes are available at $1.00 increments.

Picked on July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 909 thousand

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CBOE Volatility Index - VIX - close: 25.01 chg: -0.09 stop:

Hmm... the VIX did not fall very much as the market rallied higher. I find that interesting. We're not suggesting new positions and hope that readers took some money off the table yesterday. We do not have a stop loss listed but you may want to put a stop in under the 22 level. Our more aggressive, higher-risk target is the $34.00 level.

Picked on June 30 at $ 23.95 /1st target hit 29.50
Change since picked: + 1.06
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = n/a million
 

Put Updates

Apple Inc. - AAPL - close: 171.81 chg: -1.00 stop: 181.01

AAPL is under performing the market and considering the gains in the market this week AAPL's failure to participate is very bearish. Investors are probably waiting to hear from the company when they report earnings on Monday, July 21st. We do not want to hold over the report with a directional play so we'll exit AAPL as a put play tomorrow (Friday) at the closing bell. Odds are pretty good that we'll list AAPL as a strangle play over the weekend to capture any post-earnings volatility. Readers could jump into a strangle tomorrow instead of waiting for Monday.

NOTE: After hours tonight MSFT and GOOG were trading down sharply following their earnings report. These are major tech leaders and could weigh on AAPL. Expect some weakness in AAPL tomorrow morning. We're adjusting our target to exit at $166.50.

Picked on July 09 at $174.25
Change since picked: - 2.44
Earnings Date 07/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 31.4 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Popular Inc. - BPOP - close: 6.66 change: +0.84 stop: n/a

It was another big day for financials. The banking indices were all up 8% to 9%. Shares of BPOP rallied 14% but not before dipping to $5.57 this morning. Today was our one day to open strangle positions ahead of tonight's earnings report. The bank missed estimates by 3 cents but we're not seeing a big post-earnings move yet in the after market. We're no longer suggesting new plays. The options we listed were the August $7.50 calls (BQW-HU) and the August $5.00 puts (BQW-TA). Our estimated cost was $0.65. We want to sell if either option hits $1.45 or more.

Picked on July 16 at $ 5.82
Change since picked: + 0.84
Earnings Date 07/18/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million

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DIAMONDS - DIA - close: 114.14 chg: +1.97 stop: n/a

The market bounce continued, led by financials. The DJIA surged 200 points and the DIA followed with a 1.8% gain. We are not suggesting new strangles. The options we suggested were the August $115 calls (DIA-HK) and the August $109 puts (DIA-TE). Our estimated cost is $4.35. We want to sell if either option hits $6.90 or more.

Picked on July 07 at $112.21
Change since picked: + 1.93
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 15.5 million

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iShares Brazil - EWZ - cls: 80.80 chg: -2.55 stop: n/a

The lack of movement in the EWZ is frustrating. Shares failed at their 200-dma again but remain in the $80-84 trading range. This is probably moving sideways until after July options expiration. If we don't see some significant movement by the end of next week (July 25th) we'll consider abandoning this play. We are not suggesting new strangle positions. The options we suggested were the August $90 calls (EWZ-HR) and the August $75 puts (EWQ-TO). Our estimated cost is $3.95. We want to sell if either option hits $5.90.

Picked on July 03 at $ 83.06
Change since picked: - 2.26
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 13.6 million

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FosterWheeler - FWLT - close: 59.00 chg: -0.59 stop: n/a

FWLT is still under performing thanks to oil's weakness. If you want to consider new positions the $59.00-61.00 zone is the spot to do it. The options we suggested were the August $70 calls (UFB-HN) and the August $50 puts (UFB-TJ). Our estimated cost was $2.60. We want to sell if either option hits $4.00.

Picked on July 15 at $ 61.24
Change since picked: - 2.24
Earnings Date 08/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million

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Corning Inc. - GLW - close: 20.68 chg: +0.62 stop: n/a

GLW joined the party on Wall Street and added 3% but failed to breakout over its 10-dma. We're not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. The options we suggested were the August $22.50 calls (GLW-HX) and the August $17.50 puts (GLW-TW). Our estimated cost is $0.75. We want to sell if either option hits $1.50. Try and keep your investment balanced on both sides of the trade.

Picked on July 10 at $ 20.16
Change since picked: + 0.52
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 15.9 million

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Google Inc. - GOOG - close: 533.44 chg: - 2.16 stop: n/a

Tomorrow should see some fireworks in GOOG. Today was our chance to open strangles ahead of earnings and GOOG was nice enough to trade sideways for us. Wall Street was expecting a profit of $4.74 a share. GOOG missed by 11 cents. Revenues soared 43% to $3.9 billion on the quarter. Investor hope has turned to fear that the "best in breed" for the Internet space just missed earnings. Shares of GOOG were trading down around $491 in after hours after hitting a low close to $471 following the news. The volatility premium on the puts tomorrow should swell. Traders have a big decision to make here. Do you sell on the initial spike lower? Or do you hold your position for five or ten days and see if there is a significant follow through. Sometimes GOOG gaps $50 and in the next week it could move another $50 in the same direction. Look for resistance near $600 and support near $450. If GOOG trades near either (probably $450) we'd exit no matter what the options are at. Of course our exit target is to sell if either option hits $30.00 or more, which could be tomorrow for the puts. More aggressive traders may want to raise their exit target price. The options we listed were the August $590 calls (GOO-HR) and the August $480 puts (GOP-TI). Our estimated cost was $19.10. We want to sell if either option hits $30.00 or more.

Picked on July 16 at $535.60
Change since picked: - 2.16
Earnings Date 07/17/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.5 million

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Garmin Ltd. - GRMN - close: 46.63 chg: +0.14 stop: n/a

GRMN inched higher today. Unless something drastic happens tomorrow we expect these options to expire worthless. The options we listed were the July $50 calls (GQR-GJ) and the July $40 puts (GQR-SH). Our estimated cost was $2.55 and we have adjusted our exit to breakeven at $2.55.

Picked on June 15 at $ 44.91
Change since picked: + 1.72
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million

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Internet Holders - HHH - cls: 49.42 change: -1.66 stop: n/a

The HHH under performed the market today and it will probably under perform tomorrow too. If GOOG gaps down lower tomorrow morning it's going to put a lot of pressure on the HHH. We are not suggesting new positions. The options we suggested were the August $55 calls (HHH-HK) and the August $45 puts (HHH-TI). Our estimated cost is $1.65. We want to sell if either option hits $2.45.

Picked on July 03 at $ 50.50
Change since picked: - 1.08
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 132 thousand

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iShares Rus.2000 - IWM - cls: 68.40 chg: +0.10 stop: n/a

The Russell 2000 small cap index continued to rally but the iShares ETF on the Russell under performed. We are not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. The options we suggested were the August $70 calls (DIW-HR) and the August $61 puts (DIW-TI). Our estimated cost is $1.84. We want to sell if either option hits $2.75. More aggressive traders may want to aim for more.

Picked on July 14 at $ 66.16
Change since picked: + 2.24
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 90 million

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KLA-Tencor - KLAC - close: 40.22 chg: +1.23 stop: n/a

KLAC has failed to move and these strangles are going to expire. We listed two different strangles on KLAC.

Suggested Options were:
KLAC Strangle #1) The options we listed were the July $42.50 calls (KCQ-GV) and the July $37.50 puts (KCQ-SU). Our estimated cost is $1.65 We want to sell if either option hits $2.25

KLAC Strangle #2) The options we listed were the July $45.00 calls (KCQ-GI) and the July $35.00 puts (KCQ-SG). Our estimated cost is $0.70. We want to sell if either option hits $1.15.

Picked on June 22 at $ 40.07
Change since picked: + 0.15
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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MarketVectors Agribusiness- MOO - close: 55.54 chg: -1.11 stop: n/a

The MOO is still moving sideways but it acts like it's wants to breakdown from this consolidation and under the $55.00 level and its 200-dma. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The options we suggested were the August $62 calls (MYV-HJ) and the August $50 puts (MOO-TX). Our estimated cost is $2.10. We want to sell if either option hits $3.15.

Picked on July 03 at $ 57.25
Change since picked: - 1.71
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 745 thousand

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PowerShares QQQ - QQQQ - cls: 45.64 chg: +0.30 stop: n/a

Tech stocks helped lift the NASDAQ 100 again but tomorrow could be rough as MSFT and GOOG, two big components, are both poised to trade down tomorrow. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The options we suggested were the August $47 calls (QQQ-HU) and the August $43 puts (QQQ-TQ). Our estimated cost is $1.80. We want to sell if either option hits $2.75 or more.

Picked on July 07 at $ 44.90
Change since picked: + 0.74
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 148 million

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Starbucks - SBUX - close: 14.39 change: +0.05 stop: n/a

SBUX did not see a lot of follow through today and the rally stalled at its 10-dma. The options we suggested for the strangle were the August $14.00 calls (SQX-HK) and the August $13.00 puts (SQX-TJ). Our estimated cost was $1.38. We want to sell if either option hits $3.50 or more.

Picked on July 15 at $ 13.58
Change since picked: + 0.81
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 14 million

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UBS Ag - UBS - close: 20.52 change: +0.69 stop: 20.75

UBS under performed its American counterparts today. The U.S. financial sector was up sharply but UBS only managed a 3% gain. The company did have some news today. UBS said they would no longer provide offshore banking services for U.S. residents and would turn over names that the U.S. government wanted to investigate for tax fraud. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. We listed two different strangles.

UBS Strangle #1) This uses the August $22.50 calls (UBS-HX) and $17.50 puts (UBS-TW). Our estimated cost was $1.90. We want to sell if either option hits $3.00.

UBS Strangle #2) This uses the August $25.00 calls (UBS-HE) and $15.00 puts (UBS-TC). Our estimated cost was $0.90. We want to sell if either option hits $1.90.

Picked on July 13 at $19.49
Change since picked: + 1.03
Earnings Date 08/12/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.3 million

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United States Oil - USO - cls: 105.53 chg: -3.72 stop: n/a

Oil continues to sell-off and we can now see a very clear breakdown of its bullish channel. If the USO were to see a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the current six-month bull run then it should pull back toward the $100.00 mark. We are adjusting our exit targets on the July puts again. We suggested two different strangles.

USO Strangle #1) The options we listed were the July $115 calls (IYS-GK) and the July $105 puts (IYS-SA). Our estimated cost is $7.10 We want to sell if either option hits $3.00 (attempting to recoup some capital).

USO Strangle #2) The options we listed were the July $120 calls (QSO-GP) and the July $100 puts (IYS-SV). Our estimated cost is $4.10. We want to sell if either option hits $1.25 (attempting to recoup some capital).

Picked on June 22 at $109.14
Change since picked: - 3.61
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 12.5 million

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Ultra Financials - UYG - close: 19.56 chg: +2.26 stop: n/a

The U.S. banking stocks soared again. The BIX rallied 8.7% and the BKX added 9.4%. Shares of UYG rose more than 13% and tagged $20.68 intraday. We are no longer suggesting new strangle positions at this time. The options we suggested were the August $20.00 calls (UYG-HD) and the Augsut $11.00 puts (UUF-TM). Our estimated cost was $1.45. We want to sell if either option hits $3.50 or more.

Picked on July 15 at $ 14.75
Change since picked: + 4.81
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 27.3 million

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FinancialSector SPDR - XLF - cls: 20.26 chg: +0.84 stop: n/a

The XLF added 4% and closed above potential round-number resistance at $20.00. The options we ended up with given the Monday morning open on the XLF were the August $21 calls (XLF-HU) and the August $17 puts (XJZ-TQ). Our estimated cost was $1.22. We want to sell if either option hits $2.85.

Picked on July 14 at $ 19.12
Change since picked: + 1.14
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 128 million
 

Dropped Calls

None
 

Dropped Puts

iShares Rus.2000 - IWM - cls: 68.40 chg: +0.10 stop: 68.60

Hopefully no one was surprised when IWM hit our stop loss today. Actually the ETF gapped open above it at $68.72. Our stop was at $68.60. We warned readers yesterday that if the market saw any follow through on the bounce that we would be stopped out.

Picked on July 14 at $ 66.16 /stopped out 68.72 gap higher
Change since picked: + 2.24
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 90 million
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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