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Call Updates

CurrencyShares Euro - FXE - cls: 159.35 chg: +0.66 stop: 157.75*new*

After a three-day bounce the U.S. dollar rolled over and the FXE rallied in response. We're going to get more aggressive here and suggest calls right now on today's bounce. More conservative traders may want to stick to our previous suggestion and wait for a new high over $160.55. We'll start with a stop loss at $157.75. Our ten-week target is $169.50. We're suggesting the September calls.

Picked on July 21 at $159.35
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 909 thousand

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Intl. Bus. Mach. - IBM - cls: 128.66 chg: -1.23 stop: 124.45

As we expected shares of IBM witnessed some profit taking today. Our problem is that the low was only $127.64. Our suggested entry point to buy calls was the $127.00-126.00 zone. The afternoon bounce in shares of IBM looks tempting. We are going to risk IBM running away from us by sticking to our original plan and entry point. More aggressive traders might want to consider positions now. An alternative entry point would be to wait for a new relative high over resistance at $130.00. If we are triggered at $127.00 our target is the $134.75 mark. We're suggesting the August calls.

Picked on July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/17/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.7 million

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United States Oil - USO - close: 106.67 chg: +2.23 stop: 103.49

No one should be surprised that the weekend talks with Iran did not bear any fruit. Jim warned us this weekend that Iran would not cooperate. The threat of new sanctions on Iran coupled with tropical storm Dolly as a potential threat to our oil facilities helped lift crude oil higher. The USO opened at $105.10 and rallied 2.1% closing near its highs for the session. We had suggested that readers buy calls at the open today. We are raising the stop loss to $103.49. Our target is the $110-112 zone. We are fighting the new trend so consider this an aggressive play.

Picked on July 21 at $105.10
Change since picked: + 1.57
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 14.8 million
 

Put Updates

Freddie Mac - FRE - close: 8.75 change: -0.43 stop: n/a

Shares of FRE's sister company FNM rose today as the SEC's recently announced ban on naked short-selling took affect today. That didn't seem to impact FRE. The stock gapped open at $10.18 and quickly turned south. FRE ended the session down 4.6%. We didn't see any news after hours but FRE briefly spiked to over $10 again in after tonight but was back to trading around $8.30 by the time of this update. We remain bearish on FRE and would still consider new positions here. This is a speculative, high-risk play (no stop loss) on the expectation that FRE will do something drastic that damages or eliminates the common stock. Our short-term target would be a move back to $5.00. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower.

Picked on July 20 at $ 9.18
Change since picked: - 0.43
Earnings Date 08/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 45.5 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Apple Inc. - AAPL - close: 166.29 chg: +1.14 stop: n/a

It was a rocky session for AAPL but the stock was rebounding into the closing bell. Those buying the bounce are going to have buyer's remorse. AAPL reported earnings out after the bell tonight. The company bested estimates but then warned. Shares are getting crushed after hours. AAPL was trading under $148.00 in after hours markets. If the put options spike high enough readers will have a choice tomorrow. Do you sell on the initial spike (if the position is profitable) or do you hold on for a few days and see if there is any follow through selling. I suspect the $146-144 zone might offer some support. We are no longer suggesting new strangle positions. The options we suggested were the August $180 calls (APV-HP) and the August $150 puts (APV-TJ). Our estimated cost is $8.90. We want to sell if either option hits $14.50 or more.

Picked on July 20 at $165.15
Change since picked: + 1.14
Earnings Date 07/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 31.7 million

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Popular Inc. - BPOP - close: 6.06 change: -0.83 stop: n/a

There was some significant profit-taking in BPOP today. The stock plunged over 12%. Negative analyst comments exacerbated the move. Shares are back to what could be short-term support near $6.00 and its 10-dma. We're no longer suggesting new plays. The options we listed were the August $7.50 calls (BQW-HU) and the August $5.00 puts (BQW-TA). Our estimated cost was $0.65. We want to sell if either option hits $1.45 or more.

Picked on July 16 at $ 5.82
Change since picked: + 0.24
Earnings Date 07/18/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million

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DIAMONDS - DIA - close: 114.65 chg: -0.30 stop: n/a

The DJIA bounced around sideways on Monday. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. We are not suggesting new strangles. The options we suggested were the August $115 calls (DIA-HK) and the August $109 puts (DIA-TE). Our estimated cost is $4.35. We want to sell if either option hits $6.90 or more.

Picked on July 07 at $112.21
Change since picked: + 2.44
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 15.5 million

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iShares Brazil - EWZ - cls: 82.62 chg: +1.70 stop: n/a

There is still no movement in the EWZ. We're getting really close to closing this play early. If we don't see some significant movement by the end of next week (July 25th) we'll consider abandoning this play. We are not suggesting new strangle positions. The options we suggested were the August $90 calls (EWZ-HR) and the August $75 puts (EWQ-TO). Our estimated cost is $3.95. We want to sell if either option hits $5.90.

Picked on July 03 at $ 83.06
Change since picked: - 0.44
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 13.6 million

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FosterWheeler - FWLT - close: 58.25 chg: +0.31 stop: n/a

FWLT managed a very minor bounce today, which isn't saying much. We are not suggesting new strangle positions in FWLT at this time. The options we suggested were the August $70 calls (UFB-HN) and the August $50 puts (UFB-TJ). Our estimated cost was $2.60. We want to sell if either option hits $4.00.

Picked on July 15 at $ 61.24
Change since picked: - 2.99
Earnings Date 08/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million

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Corning Inc. - GLW - close: 20.52 chg: +0.32 stop: n/a

GLW also spent the day moving sideways. Lack of follow through on Friday's bearish candlestick is a good sign for the bulls. We had previously suggested readers open strangle positions in the $20.25-19.75 zone. The options we suggested were the August $22.50 calls (GLW-HX) and the August $17.50 puts (GLW-TW). Our estimated cost is $0.75. We want to sell if either option hits $1.50. Try and keep your investment balanced on both sides of the trade.

Picked on July 10 at $ 20.16
Change since picked: + 0.36
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 15.9 million

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Google Inc. - GOOG - close: 468.80 chg: -12.52 stop: n/a

GOOG continues to slide. The stock lost another 2.6% on Monday with volume coming in above average on the decline. The stock closed near its lows for the session, which is bearish. The August $480 put hit a high of $25.69 and is currently trading around $24.00. The negative AAPL earnings news out tonight could push tech stocks lower again tomorrow. We're not suggesting new strangle positions in GOOG at this time. The options we listed were the August $590 calls (GOO-HR) and the August $480 puts (GOP-TI). Our estimated cost was $19.10. We want to sell if either option hits $30.00 or more.

Picked on July 16 at $535.60
Change since picked: -66.80
Earnings Date 07/17/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.5 million

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Internet Holders - HHH - cls: 47.87 change: -0.73 stop: n/a

The HHH continues to drift lower. Volume was extremely light today. If we don't see another big move by the end of next week we're going to be considering an early exit! We are not suggesting new positions. The options we suggested were the August $55 calls (HHH-HK) and the August $45 puts (HHH-TI). Our estimated cost is $1.65. We want to sell if either option hits $2.45.

Picked on July 03 at $ 50.50
Change since picked: - 2.63
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 132 thousand

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iShares Rus.2000 - IWM - cls: 69.72 chg: +0.84 stop: n/a

The small cap index recovered from its intraday lows to close up on the session and out performing its larger-cap rivals. We are not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. The options we suggested were the August $70 calls (DIW-HR) and the August $61 puts (DIW-TI). Our estimated cost is $1.84. We want to sell if either option hits $2.75. More aggressive traders may want to aim for more.

Picked on July 14 at $ 66.16
Change since picked: + 3.56
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 90 million

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MarketVectors Agribusiness- MOO - close: 56.85 chg: +2.10 stop: n/a

As soon as the MOO appeared to pick a direction last week the sector has reversed again and is back inside the previous trading range. Today's sharp 3.8% bounce makes Friday's drop look like a bear trap except that the trend of lower highs is still in place. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The options we suggested were the August $62 calls (MYV-HJ) and the August $50 puts (MOO-TX). Our estimated cost is $2.10. We want to sell if either option hits $3.15.

Picked on July 03 at $ 57.25
Change since picked: - 0.40
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 745 thousand

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PowerShares QQQ - QQQQ - cls: 44.78 chg: +0.19 stop: n/a

There was very little movement in the NDX on Monday. That could change tomorrow with AAPL, one of its biggest components, poised to gap down tomorrow morning. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The options we suggested were the August $47 calls (QQQ-HU) and the August $43 puts (QQQ-TQ). Our estimated cost is $1.80. We want to sell if either option hits $2.75 or more.

Picked on July 07 at $ 44.90
Change since picked: - 0.12
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 148 million

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Starbucks - SBUX - close: 14.09 change: -0.25 stop: n/a

The bounce in SBUX appears to be rolling over under its 10-dma. We are not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. The options we suggested for the strangle were the August $14.00 calls (SQX-HK) and the August $13.00 puts (SQX-TJ). Our estimated cost was $1.38. We want to sell if either option hits $3.50 or more.

Picked on July 15 at $ 13.58
Change since picked: + 0.51
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 14 million

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UBS Ag - UBS - close: 21.59 change: +0.11 stop: n/a

UBS gapped open higher and hit $22.49 before fading lower. Volume dropped as well. The very short-term trend is still up but UBS is also growing short-term oversold. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. We listed two different strangles.

UBS Strangle #1) This uses the August $22.50 calls (UBS-HX) and $17.50 puts (UBS-TW). Our estimated cost was $1.90. We want to sell if either option hits $3.00.

UBS Strangle #2) This uses the August $25.00 calls (UBS-HE) and $15.00 puts (UBS-TC). Our estimated cost was $0.90. We want to sell if either option hits $1.90.

Picked on July 13 at $19.49
Change since picked: + 2.10
Earnings Date 08/12/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.3 million

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Ultra Financials - UYG - close: 20.42 chg: +0.02 stop: n/a

The UYG posted another gain but the momentum is clearly stalling. We are no longer suggesting new strangle positions at this time. The options we suggested were the August $20.00 calls (UYG-HD) and the Augsut $11.00 puts (UUF-TM). Our estimated cost was $1.45. We want to sell if either option hits $3.50 or more.

Picked on July 15 at $ 14.75
Change since picked: + 5.67
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 27.3 million

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Wachovia - WB - close: 13.18 change: +0.21 stop: n/a

Tomorrow will be the big day for WB when the company reports earnings tomorrow morning. We are no longer suggesting new strangle positions on the stock. The options we suggested were the August $15.00 calls (WB-HC) and the August $10.00 puts (WB-TB). Our estimated cost is $2.00. We want to sell if either option hits $3.50 or more.

Picked on July 20 at $ 12.97
Change since picked: + 0.21
Earnings Date 07/22/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 64 million

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Washington Mutual - WM - close: 5.48 chg: -0.44 stop: n/a

The rally in financials is definitely slowing down and WM actually gave back 7.4% today. The stock traded on both sides of $6.00 giving us plenty of opportunities to open positions. If you missed your chance today tomorrow is your last chance. However, if WB has big news with its earnings report tomorrow morning shares of WM could react sharply and that might force you to adjust your strategy. The options we suggested were the August $8.00 calls (WM-HV) and the August $4.00 puts (WM-TH). Our estimated cost is $0.72. We want to sell if either option hits $2.25 or more.

Picked on July 20 at $ 5.92
Change since picked: - 0.44
Earnings Date 07/22/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 57 million

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FinancialSector SPDR - XLF - cls: 20.75 chg: +0.08 stop: n/a

The XLF peaked at $21.48 today and almost closed in the red before the day was done. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. The options we ended up with given the Monday, July 14th, morning open on the XLF were the August $21 calls (XLF-HU) and the August $17 puts (XJZ-TQ). Our estimated cost was $1.22. We want to sell if either option hits $2.85.

Picked on July 14 at $ 19.12
Change since picked: + 1.63
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 128 million
 

Dropped Calls

CBOE Volatility Index - VIX - close: 23.05 chg: -1.00 stop:

We are closing the call play on the VIX. Our weekend comments said if the VIX closed under 24 or its 200-dma we'd close the play. The VIX did both today. The Volatility index had already exceeded our first target at 29.50 a few days ago. When the market bounce begins to stall we're going to reconsider new call positions on the VIX.

Picked on June 30 at $ 23.95 /1st target hit 29.50
Change since picked: - 0.90
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = n/a million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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