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Call Updates

Intl. Bus. Mach. - IBM - cls: 130.00 chg: +0.48 stop: 124.95

IBM was out performing the market most of the day but eventually pared its gains to settle right at the $130.00 resistance level. The trend in IBM remains bullish. However, if the broader market plunges lower don't expect IBM to maintain its gains. It's been said that even a helium balloon will float lower if it's stuck in a descending elevator. IBM is the balloon. The market is the elevator. We have two targets. Our first target is $134.75. Our second target is $139.00. We are now suggesting the August or September calls.

Picked on July 23 at $130.25 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.25
Earnings Date 07/17/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.7 million

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United States Oil - USO - cls: 101.46 chg: +1.44 stop: 98.45 *new*

The short-term trend is still down but USO's bounce from the $100 region (actually 99.55) could be forecasting an oversold rebound soon. The $100 level is a 20% decline from its highs and a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of its 2008 run up. This is an aggressive and highly speculative play on a rebound in oil and we're going to get more aggressive here and suggest readers buy today's bounce. We'll raise our stop loss to $98.45, which is under what should be technical support at the 100-dma. More conservative traders may want to use a stop loss under today's low instead. Our adjusted short-term target is the $106.75.

Picked on July 24 at $101.46
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 14.6 million
 

Put Updates

Freddie Mac - FRE - close: 8.81 change: -1.99 stop: n/a

FRE and FNM reversed sharply lower on Thursday even as momentum builds for the Senate to vote in favor of the housing bill this weekend. Shares of FRE lost more than 18% today. Yesterday we suggested a new decline under $9.15 as another entry point for puts. This remains a very aggressive play and we might regret not putting a stop loss on this lottery-ticket speculation. Our short-term target would be a move back to $5.00. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower.

Picked on July 20 at $ 9.18
Change since picked: - 0.37
Earnings Date 08/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 45.5 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Apple Inc. - AAPL - close: 159.03 chg: -7.23 stop: n/a

Now that AAPL has filled the gap from its earnings news the stock is rolling over. Shares lost more than 4% today and it doesn't help that the S&P 500 lost more than 2.3%. AAPL's close under $160 is bearish. We are no longer suggesting new strangle positions. The options we suggested were the August $180 calls (APV-HP) and the August $150 puts (APV-TJ). Our estimated cost is $8.90. We want to sell if either option hits $14.50 or more.

Picked on July 20 at $165.15
Change since picked: - 6.12
Earnings Date 07/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 31.7 million

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Popular Inc. - BPOP - close: 6.90 change: -0.46 stop: n/a

The rebound in BPOP struggled as the financials rolled over sharply on Thursday. We're no longer suggesting new plays. The options we listed were the August $7.50 calls (BQW-HU) and the August $5.00 puts (BQW-TA). Our estimated cost was $0.65. We want to sell if either option hits $1.45 or more.

Picked on July 16 at $ 5.82
Change since picked: + 1.08
Earnings Date 07/18/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million

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DIAMONDS - DIA - close: 113.60 chg: -2.63 stop: n/a

The has produced a failed rally and bearish reversal pattern but the selling hasn't broken the simple 10-dma yet. We are not suggesting new strangles. The options we suggested were the August $115 calls (DIA-HK) and the August $109 puts (DIA-TE). Our estimated cost is $4.35. We want to sell if either option hits $6.90 or more.

Picked on July 07 at $112.21
Change since picked: + 1.39
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 15.5 million

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iShares Brazil - EWZ - cls: 77.50 chg: -2.70 stop: n/a

It looks like the EWZ has finally picked a direction. This Brazilian ETF lost 3.3% and hit new three-month lows. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The options we suggested back in early July were the August $90 calls (EWZ-HR) and the August $75 puts (EWQ-TO). Our estimated cost is $3.95. We want to sell if either option hits $5.90.

Picked on July 03 at $ 83.06
Change since picked: - 5.56
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 13.6 million

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FosterWheeler - FWLT - close: 53.52 chg: -3.21 stop: n/a

Crude oil futures managed to rebound from their lows today and post a gain but that didn't stop the selling pressure in FWLT. This stock lost another 5.6% and looks poised to drop toward $50 soon. We are not suggesting new strangle positions in FWLT at this time. The options we suggested were the August $70 calls (UFB-HN) and the August $50 puts (UFB-TJ). Our estimated cost was $2.60. We want to sell if either option hits $4.00.

Picked on July 15 at $ 61.24
Change since picked: - 7.72
Earnings Date 08/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million

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Corning Inc. - GLW - close: 19.88 chg: -0.24 stop: n/a

The early morning rally in GLW failed and the stock closed under support/resistance at $20.00. We are no longer suggesting new strangle positions in GLW. The options we suggested were the August $22.50 calls (GLW-HX) and the August $17.50 puts (GLW-TW). Our estimated cost is $0.75. We want to sell if either option hits $1.50. Try and keep your investment balanced on both sides of the trade.

Picked on July 10 at $ 20.16
Change since picked: - 0.28
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 15.9 million

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Google Inc. - GOOG - close: 475.62 chg: -13.60 stop: n/a

The bounce in GOOG has failed under the $500 level. Today's session also produced a bearish engulfing candlestick. We're not suggesting new strangle positions in GOOG at this time. The options we listed were the August $590 calls (GOO-HR) and the August $480 puts (GOP-TI). Our estimated cost was $19.10. We want to sell if either option hits $30.00 or more.

Picked on July 16 at $535.60
Change since picked: -59.98
Earnings Date 07/17/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.5 million

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Internet Holders - HHH - cls: 49.51 change: +0.95 stop: n/a

Strength in AMZN overshadowed weakness in ETFC and the HHH rallied higher. Yet the trend of lower highs remains unbroken. If we don't see another big move by the end of this week (that's tomorrow) we're going to be considering an early exit! We are not suggesting new positions. The options we suggested were the August $55 calls (HHH-HK) and the August $45 puts (HHH-TI). Our estimated cost is $1.65. We want to sell if either option hits $2.45.

Picked on July 03 at $ 50.50
Change since picked: - 0.99
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 132 thousand

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Legg Mason - LM - close: 38.21 chg: -1.99 stop: n/a

Tomorrow is the big day for LM. Our window to open strangle positions ahead of earnings has now closed. LM reports tomorrow morning and Wall Street expects a profit of 13 cents a share. We're not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. The options we listed were the August $45 calls (LM-HW) and the August $35 puts (LM-TG). Our estimated cost was $3.15. We want to sell if either option hits $4.85 or more.

Picked on July 23 at $ 40.20
Change since picked: - 1.99
Earnings Date 07/25/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.1 million

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MarketVectors Agribusiness- MOO - close: 53.82 chg: -1.63 stop: n/a

The Agribusiness ETF is starting to pick up speed on the way down. Shares slipped to new three-month lows this afternoon. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The options we suggested were the August $62 calls (MYV-HJ) and the August $50 puts (MOO-TX). Our estimated cost is $2.10. We want to sell if either option hits $3.15.

Picked on July 03 at $ 57.25
Change since picked: - 3.43
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 745 thousand

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Netflix - NFLX - close: 26.73 change: -1.25 stop: n/a

Yesterday it looked like NFLX was ready to breakout from its pennant and now it looks ready to breakdown from its consolidation pattern. Today was our day to open strangle positions. NFLX reports earnings tomorrow morning so we're not suggesting new positions. Wall Street expects a profit of 40 cents a share. The options we suggested were the August $32.50 calls (QNQ-HT) and the August $22.50 puts (QNQ-TX). Our estimated cost is $1.20. We want to sell if either option hits $2.20 or more. If we don't see a big enough move on Friday we might bail out early to try and cut our losses.

Picked on July 23 at $ 27.98
Change since picked: - 1.25
Earnings Date 07/25/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million

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PowerShares QQQ - QQQQ - cls: 44.69 chg: -0.68 stop: n/a

The NDX has spent the last four weeks churning sideways, which is killing the options in our strangle! We need to see a big move in the next three weeks. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The options we suggested were the August $47 calls (QQQ-HU) and the August $43 puts (QQQ-TQ). Our estimated cost is $1.80. We want to sell if either option hits $2.75 or more.

Picked on July 07 at $ 44.90
Change since picked: - 0.21
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 148 million

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Starbucks - SBUX - close: 14.54 change: -0.88 stop: n/a

SBUX tagged resistance near $16.00 and reversed. We are not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. The options we suggested for the strangle were the August $14.00 calls (SQX-HK) and the August $13.00 puts (SQX-TJ). Our estimated cost was $1.38. We want to sell if either option hits $3.50 or more.

Picked on July 15 at $ 13.58
Change since picked: + 0.96
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 14 million

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UBS Ag - UBS - close: 21.00 change: -1.60 stop: n/a

UBS just gave up a good chunk of its gains with a 7% loss on Thursday. If UBS doesn't clear the $23.25 level soon more conservative traders might want to consider an early exit. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. We listed two different strangles.

UBS Strangle #1) This uses the August $22.50 calls (UBS-HX) and $17.50 puts (UBS-TW). Our estimated cost was $1.90. We want to sell if either option hits $3.00.

UBS Strangle #2) This uses the August $25.00 calls (UBS-HE) and $15.00 puts (UBS-TC). Our estimated cost was $0.90. We want to sell if either option hits $1.90.

Picked on July 13 at $19.49
Change since picked: + 1.51
Earnings Date 08/12/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.3 million

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Washington Mutual - WM - close: 4.03 chg: -0.62 stop: n/a

Shares of WM were getting crushed again today. The stock dipped to $3.56 this morning and volume was huge! Today's volume was 335 million shares versus the normal 57 million. The August $4.00 put spiked to a $1.00 intraday. WM was trying to recover late this afternoon but it could have just been some short covering. Speaking of short covering WM might see some more tomorrow as cautious bears cover their shorts ahead of the weekend. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. The options we suggested were the August $8.00 calls (WM-HV) and the August $4.00 puts (WM-TH). Our estimated cost is $0.72. We want to sell if either option hits $2.25 or more.

Picked on July 20 at $ 5.92
Change since picked: - 1.89
Earnings Date 07/22/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 57 million
 

Dropped Calls

None
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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