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Call Updates

CBOE Volatility Index - VIX - close: 21.43 chg: -0.56 stop: n/a

The VIX pulled back a bit after a sharp two-day rally. As stocks weaken it looks like the VIX may have produced a change in trend. We don't see any changes from our prior comments. Our readers might want to consider new call positions here. We're going to maintain our previous suggestion to wait for a move over 22.50. Don't forget that this is a very speculative play (as in no stop loss) as we bet on a strong enough market sell-off to send the VIX toward 30.00. In our favor is the time of year with September and the first several days of October historically the worst time of year for stocks. Plus, we have the ongoing credit crisis, financial sector woes, and escalating tensions with Russia (not to mention Iran), oh and let's throw in a couple of hurricanes. Our target is 29.75 but readers might want to consider scaling out of positions in the 28-29 region.

Picked on August 03 at $ 22.57
Change since picked: - 1.14
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = x million

Put Updates

Air Products - APD - cls: 88.98 change: -2.11 stop: 93.05 *new*

APD continues to move lower. Shares closed under what could have been round-number support at $90.00. The intraday low was $88.16 before APD trimmed its losses as the broader market tried to bounce. We are adjusting our stop loss to $93.05. We are listing two targets. Our first target is $87.00. Our second target is $84.00. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $73 target.

Picked on August 31 at $ 91.85
Change since picked: - 2.87
Earnings Date 10/22/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million


L-3 Comm. - LLL - close: 103.49 chg: -0.38 stop: 105.05

It looks like LLL may have produced a bearish double-top but today's decline failed to close under support near its 20-dma and support in the $103-102.50 zone. Yesterday we added a trigger to buy puts at $102.00. If triggered our target is $97.50 or the 50-dma.

Picked on September x at $ xx.xx <-- trigger 102.00
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million


Lindsay Corp. - LNN - cls: 73.08 chg: -4.66 stop: 79.05 *new*

First target exceeded! Weakness in the agriculture-related stocks continued into Wednesday. Shares of LNN gave up about 6% and dipped to $71.38 intraday. Our first target to take profits was $75.25. Our second target is $71.00. We are adjusting the stop loss to $79.05. More conservative traders may want to exit completely right here. We're not suggesting new bearish positions at this time.

Picked on September 2 at $ 79.85 *1st target hit 75.25 9/03
Change since picked: - 6.77
Earnings Date 10/08/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 480 thousand


Millicom Intl. - MICC - cls: 75.49 chg: -3.09 stop: 81.65

As expected MICC is moving lower. The stock gave up almost 4% today. The MACD on the daily chart is nearing a new sell signal. The Point & Figure chart has produced a new sell signal with a $67 target. We have two targets. Our first target is $75.05. Our second target is $72.50. (Note: Our first play on MICC was stopped out at $81.55 on 09/02/08. Entry was 78.49.)

Picked on August 28 at $ 78.58 *re-listed
Change since picked: - 3.09
Earnings Date 10/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million


Monsanto - MON - close: 107.90 chg: -1.44 stop: 116.75*new*

MON is still moving lower. The intraday high failed at its exponential 200-dma. We suggested a bounce back towards $112 as a potential entry point and MON hit $112 today. We are adjusting our stop loss down towards resistance at the 50-dma. Our new stop will be $116.75. Our target is the $101.00. The $100.00 level should be round-number support.

Picked on August 31 at $114.25
Change since picked: - 6.35
Earnings Date 10/08/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.7 million

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)


Lehman Brothers - LEH - close: 16.94 chg: +0.81 stop: n/a

LEH continues to rebound on hopes someone will buy them or buy a significant stake in the company. We do not see any changes from our weekend comments. We're not suggesting new strangle positions in LEH at this time. We have less than three weeks left and LEH still has to make some large moves. We need to see LEH significantly above $24.00 or under $10.00. The options we suggested were the September $24.00 calls (LYH-IR) and the September $10.00 puts (LYH-UB). Our estimated cost is $2.15. We want to sell if either option hits $3.50 or higher.

Picked on July 27 at $ 17.05
Change since picked: - 0.11
Earnings Date 09/18/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 63 million

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