CBOE Volatility Index - VIX - close: 24.11 chg: +2.68 stop: n/a
We're starting to see some fear in the market. Today just about everything was down in a widespread sell-off. This lifted the volatility index more than 12% and through technical resistance at the 50-dma and 200-dma. We had been suggesting that readers buy calls at 22.50. Our target is the 29.75 mark but readers might want to consider scaling out of positions in the 28-29 region.
Picked on August 03 at $ 22.57
Air Products - APD - cls: 86.70 change: -2.28 stop: 91.85 *new*
Target exceeded. Thursday's widespread market weakness was enough to push APD to a 2.5% loss. Shares hit $86.09 at its worst levels of the day. Our first target was $87.00. The MACD on the daily chart has produced a new sell signal. We are adjusting our stop loss to $91.85. We strongly suggest readers take some money off the table if you have not done so already. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our second target is $84.00. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $73 target.
Picked on August 31 at $ 91.85 *target hit 87.00 on 09/04/08
Jacobs Engineering - JEC - cls: 64.75 chg: -4.60 stop: 70.51
JEC continued to move lower and broke through support to settle at new 52-week lows. The stock hit our trigger to buy puts at $66.90 so our stop loss is now $70.51. Our target is $60.50.
Picked on September 04 at $ 66.90 *triggered
L-3 Comm. - LLL - close: 99.98 chg: -3.51 stop: 105.05
It was a rough day for LLL, which fell almost 3.4%. The stock broke down through support near $102.50, through its 100-dma, its exponential 200-dma and the $100 level. We had a trigger to buy puts at $102.00. The play is now open (again) and our target is $97.50 or the 50-dma (currently 97.37). Broken support near $102.50 should now be new resistance.
Picked on September 04 at $102.00 *triggered
Millicom Intl. - MICC - cls: 74.37 chg: -1.12 stop: 81.65
The early morning bounce attempt in MICC quickly reversed. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. The Point & Figure chart recently produced a new sell signal with a $67 target. We have two targets. Our first target is $75.05. Our second target is $72.50. (Note: Our first play on MICC was stopped out at $81.55 on 09/02/08. Entry was 78.49.)
Picked on August 28 at $ 78.58 *re-listed
Roper Industries - ROP - cls: 56.26 chg: -1.93 stop: 60.55
The broad-based market sell-off on Thursday helped push ROP to a new relative low. Shares dipped to $55.63. Our biggest concern today was the lack of volume at only 380,000 shares traded. At this point, if you're looking for a new entry point, we would wait for a new failed rally pattern. Normally we would target potential psychological support near $55.00 but it looks like ROP has support near $54.00 instead. Our target is the $54.25 mark. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $45 target but the P&F chart also shows some support near $53.00.
Picked on September 03 at $ 58.19
(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)
Lehman Brothers - LEH - close: 15.17 chg: -1.77 stop: n/a
Everyday there is new speculation about what is going to happen with LEH. It was interesting to hear the report today that if JPM had not bought BSC that BSC's imminent bankruptcy would have also sunk LEH, MER, and MS due to their counter-party exposure to BSC. Shares of LEH lost more than 10% during today's sell off. We're not suggesting new strangle positions in LEH at this time. We have less than three weeks left and LEH still has to make some large moves. We need to see LEH significantly above $24.00 or under $10.00. The options we suggested were the September $24.00 calls (LYH-IR) and the September $10.00 puts (LYH-UB). Our estimated cost is $2.15. We want to sell if either option hits $3.50 or higher.
Picked on July 27 at $ 17.05
Lindsay Corp. - LNN - cls: 70.77 chg: -2.31 stop: 79.05
Target achieved. LNN traded past our second target of $71.00 with today's intraday low of $66.94. The stock did pare its losses to close back above the $70.00 level. The stock might be poised for a short-term bounce.
Picked on September 2 at $ 79.85 *1st target hit 75.25 9/03
Monsanto - MON - close: 103.70 chg: -4.20 stop: 116.75
Target achieved. Agriculture stocks continued to trade lower and MON sank to $100.58 before bouncing. We suspected the $100 mark might be round-number, psychological support so we set our target at $101.00. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce from here. MON has overhead resistance with its 50-dma and 200-dma.
Picked on August 31 at $114.25 /target hit 101.00