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Call Updates

Allergan - AGN - close: 55.97 change: -1.39 stop: 54.95

AGN fell sharply this morning under performing its peers. We couldn't see any news to account for the relative weakness. The selling paused when AGN hit its rising 50-dma near $55.30. We have been warning readers to expect a dip near $56.00. The stock overshot to the downside. Short-term technicals have turned bearish. Wait for a bounce before considering new bullish positions. Our target is the $64.00-65.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $75 target.

Picked on September 21 at $ 58.68
Change since picked: - 2.71
Earnings Date 11/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million


Tidewater Inc. - TDW - cls: 58.67 chg: -2.01 stop: 57.90

Crude oil inched lower on Wednesday and oil stocks followed. TDW under performed its peers and the market with a 3.3% plunge past the $60.00 level and its 10-dma and exponential 200-dma. This is short-term bearish move but we've been warning readers to expect a dip near $58.00. The low today was $58.12. A bounce from here can be used as a new bullish entry point but I am reiterating early comments about the broader market bearishness and how this isn't a great environment to open new bullish positions. We have two targets. Our first target is $64.90. Our second target is $68.00.

Picked on September 23 at $ 60.25 *triggered 9/23
Change since picked: - 1.58
Earnings Date 10/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million


Washington Mutual - WM - close: 2.26 change: -0.94 stop: n/a

Look out below! WM crashed to a 29% loss on Wednesday. The move was fueled by news that S&P had downgraded the company's creditworthiness even further. What really fueled the sell-off was comments that WM may not be sold as one piece but chunks of the company might get bought. It's possible the analyst was suggesting that the U.S. government may step in and slice up WM to be sold to its competitors. Such a move would kill any "premium" paid and our bullish bet would be dead money. Of course at this point our bullish bet is looking pretty grim already. We're not suggesting new bullish call positions. We're not listing a stop loss because the stock is so volatile and we knew this would be a high-risk, speculative bet. We listed the October or January calls as suggested strikes to buy.

Picked on September 21 at $ 4.25
Change since picked: - 1.99
Earnings Date 10/22/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 113 million


SPDR S&P Oil - XOP - cls: 49.55 chg: -0.17 stop: 47.45

The trading in the XOP continues to grow more and more bearish as it hovers around the $49-50 zone. The stock is building a short-term trend of lower highs under its 50-dma. If XOP doesn't bounce from its 10-dma near $48.65 we will probably consider an early exit. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. The XOP hit our first target on Sept. 19th. We're currently aiming for the $53.50 mark.

Picked on September 16 at $ 46.70 /1st target hit 9/19/08
Change since picked: 2.85
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million

Put Updates

Volatility Index - VIX - cls: 35.19 chg: -0.53 stop: n/a

The market spent the day hovering sideways and the VIX followed suit. We remain bearish but readers have a couple of choices on potential entry points. You could wait for another failed rally or blow-off top type of move around the 40 region. Or you could wait for a breakdown under the 10-dma. We're setting our first target at 25.50. Our second target is 21.00.

Picked on September 16 at = 30.30
Change since picked: 4.89
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = --- million

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