Allergan - AGN - close: 57.38 change: +1.41 stop: 55.29 *new*
Thursday's market bounce gave AGN a nice 2.5% rebound but the rally stalled under $58.00 and its 200-dma. The current drama over the bail-out plan for Wall Street is going to move the market. Unfortunately, we can't say for sure what direction that move will be. More conservative traders will want to consider an early exit in AGN right here to cut your losses. We're raising the stop loss toward yesterday's low and we're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $64.00-65.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $75 target.
Picked on September 21 at $ 58.68
Washington Mutual - WM - close: 1.69 change: -0.57 stop: n/a
It would appear that investors are running for their lives AWAY from WM. The stock bounced this morning with a 12% gain but that quickly vanished and shares ended the session down another 25% and on huge volume. There was some chatter this morning that WM was talking to a couple of private equity firms but nothing appears to be in the works. Meanwhile of the six large banks looking at WM as a potential acquisition it now sounds like two of them are saying, "no thanks" and walking away. Investors are worried that no deal will occur and that the U.S. government might step in and start slicing up WM's assets and selling them off. This will kill equity investors and squash hopes of any premium from a buyout. We knew WM was going to be a volatile stock and we warned readers that this was a very high-risk, speculative bet. It's not dead yet but share price decline is suggesting the company may not be long for this world. We had listed the October or January calls as suggested strikes to buy.
Picked on September 21 at $ 4.25
SPDR S&P Oil - XOP - cls: 50.65 chg: +1.10 stop: 48.45 *new*
The XOP tagged its 10-dma and bounced back above the $50.00 level. Volume was pretty light on the move. No one really wants to make a big bet while the Wall Street bailout package is still up in the air. Please note that we're raising our stop loss to $48.45. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. The XOP hit our first target on Sept. 19th. We're currently aiming for the $53.50 mark.
Picked on September 16 at $ 46.70 /1st target hit 9/19/08
Volatility Index - VIX - cls: 32.82 chg: -2.37 stop: n/a
Hope that lawmakers might approve the $700 billion bail-out plan lent some strength to stocks today. This pulled the VIX lower although it failed to close under its 10-dma. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. You could wait for another failed rally or blow-off top type of move around the 40 region as an entry point. Or you could wait for a breakdown under the 10-dma as an entry point. We're setting our first target at 25.50. Our second target is 21.00.
Picked on September 16 at = 30.30
Tidewater Inc. - TDW - cls: 58.26 chg: -0.41 stop: 57.90
Crude oil bounced today and the oil service stocks responded in a similar fashion. Unfortunately, TDW under performed its peers and the broader market. The stock broke down under its 200-dma, its 50-dma and the $58.00 level to hit our stop loss at $57.90.
Picked on September 23 at $ 60.25 *triggered 9/23, stopped 9/25