Option Investor
Play Updates

VIX breaks out, Gold breaks down

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CALL Play Updates

Apollo Group Inc. - APOL - close: 68.05 change: -2.26 stop: 66.45

As the sell-off intensifies in the broader market the strength in APOL is starting to crack. Today's session saw APOL lose 3.2% and close under its simple 10-dma. If the S&P 500 breaks down under its October lows then I would expect APOL to become a big target for profit taking. More conservative traders may want to exit early right now. We are not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our target is $79.90. The stock's chart has resistance in the $80-81 zone. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with an $80 target.

Picked on November 10 at $ 70.55 *triggered     
Change since picked:      - 2.50
Earnings Date           10/28/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       4.0 million  


FedEx Corp. - FDX - close: 63.10 change: -3.40 stop: 61.95

FDX ignored another 4.9% drop in oil and kept pace with the 5% sell-off in the S&P 500 instead. Shares of FDX are testing what should be very short-term support around $62.50. Readers have a choice to make.

Tomorrow morning is shaping up to be a very ugly open so we may not have many choices here. One choice is to exit immediately and try to cut our losses early. A second choice is to stick with the plan right now with our stop at $61.95 but given how after hours futures are shaping up I would bet on us being stopped out on an intraday spike early tomorrow. A third choice and not one I'm recommending would be to widen your stop with the expectation that tomorrow's intraday spike lower will be temporary and stocks will quickly bounce back. Where you widen your stop to would be up to you but at least under the $60.00 mark. Remember, I'm not recommending you widen your stop but it's an option.

We are not suggesting new positions at this time. We have two targets. Our first target is $68.85. Our second target is 73.00 or its 50-dma, whichever one FDX hits first. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $100 target.

Picked on November 09 at $ 64.58
Change since picked:      - 1.48
Earnings Date           12/18/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       4.0 million  


PUT Play Updates

Gilead Sciences - GILD - close: 44.45 change: +0.31 stop: 46.05

GILD actually gapped open lower this morning at $43.57. Our suggested entry point to buy puts was $43.65 so the play was open immediately. Unfortunately, GILD bounced back into the green showing a lot of relative strength on a very down day for the markets. We remain bearish but would wait for another drop under $44.00 or $43.65 before initiating new put positions.

We have two targets. Our first target is $40.25. Our second target is $37.50.

Chart:
GILD

Picked on November 12 at $ 43.57 *triggered/gap down entry point
Change since picked:      + 0.97
Earnings Date           01/22/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =      13.1 million  


SPDR Gold ETF - GLD - close: 70.00 change: -2.05 stop: 75.01

GLD continues to slide following the breakout in the U.S. dollar. Today the GLD lost 2.8% and settled right at the $70.00 mark (equates to $700.00/ounce for gold). If we see a bounce a failed rally near $72.50-73.00 would be a new entry point for puts.

Our target is $65.25. More aggressive traders could aim lower.

Picked on November 11 at $ 72.05
Change since picked:      - 2.05
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =      19.3 million  


Joy Global Inc. - JOYG - close: 23.55 change: -2.37 stop: 27.31

As expected JOYG broke support at $25.00. Shares hit our trigger to buy puts at $24.75. The stock ended the session down 9% and poised to drop toward $20.00.

Our target is $20.25. We'd be tempted to switch directions and buy calls on a test of or bounce from the $20.00 region.

Chart:
JOYG

Picked on November 12 at $ 24.75 *triggered 
Change since picked:      - 1.20
Earnings Date           12/17/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       4.1 million  


Millicom Intl. - MICC - close: 34.06 change: -2.74 stop: 40.25*new*

MICC's sell-off continues. The stock lost another 7.4% and closed on its lows for the day, which is bearish for tomorrow. We are adjusting the stop loss to $40.25.

Our first target is $31.00. Our secondary target is $27.00.

Picked on November 11 at $ 36.80
Change since picked:      - 2.74
Earnings Date           02/12/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.5 million  


Volatility Index - VIX - cls: 66.46 chg: + 5.02 stop: n/a

The action in the VIX today is bearish for the market and it's very bad for our put positions or if you sold any November calls. We've got four days left and I would not expect the VIX to close under 50.00 or its 50-dma before expiration. At this point it could be over 70.00 at expiration. If you sold short calls I would strongly consider buying them back right here and cutting your losses (if any).

We are not suggesting new positions in the VIX at this time.

Note: The VIX options, which are European style options, have a unique expiration date. November VIX options expire on November 19th, 2008. The last day of trading for these options is the Tuesday before expiration. For more information check this link:
http://www.cboe.com/Products/indexopts/vixoptions_spec.aspx

The highest spike in the VIX in history has ruined our chances for success with these put positions. Now after a sharp correction the VIX is climbing again. Our September 16th put position (suggested entry at 30.30) has a 25.50 target. In all honesty this position is dead. The September 29th position (suggested entry at 46.72) is also dead and had two targets at 36.00 and 31.00. Our October 8th position (entry 57.53) has two targets at 40.00 and 35.00. Right now we'd be happy with breakeven on the Oct. 8th position.

Picked on September 16 at = 30.30 first position
Change since picked:       +36.16
Picked again Sept. 29 at =  46.72 second position
Changed since picked:      +19.74
Picked again Octo. 08 at =  57.53 third position
Changed since picked:      + 8.93
Earnings Date            00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =        --- million  


Strangle & Spread Play Updates

SPDR GOLD Trust - GLD - close: 70.00 change: -2.05 stop: n/a

The breakdown in gold prices continue and the GLD has settled at the $70.00 mark. We are not suggesting new strangle positions at this time.

We listed two strangles to take advantage of what appeared to be an imminent breakout, up or down, in gold prices.

The first strangle uses November options, which expire in two weeks. Thus it's much more risky. The second strangle uses December options.

What is a strangle?
A strangle involves buying both an out-of-the-money call and an out-of-the-money put. We don't care what direction the stock goes as long as it moves one direction. If the stock moves far enough one side of our trade will rise in value and pay for the entire trade and make a profit.

-November Strangle-

Summary:
We suggested readers buy the November $75 call (GVD-KW) and the November $70 puts (GVD-WR). Our estimated cost was $3.10. We want to sell if either option hits $5.25. There are only two weeks left before November options expire.

-December Strangle-

Summary:
We suggested readers buy the December $75 call (GVD-LW) and the December $70 puts (GVD-XR). Our estimated cost was $6.30. We want to sell if either option hits $12.00.

Picked on November 09 at $ 72.50
Change since picked:      - 2.50
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =      19.3 million  


CBOE Volatility Index - VIX - cls: 66.46 chg: + 5.02 stop: n/a

A bullish breakout in the VIX with just four days left before November VIX options expire is very unfortunate. Anything can happen in the next four days. We saw how quickly the VIX deflated in late October. However, at this point the VIX is climbing again.

If you opened new VIX spread positions in the last two weeks I would strongly consider exiting now and cutting your losses. Actually readers will want to consider cutting their losses on all positions listed below. I repeat, readers may want to exit any and all bearish VIX strategies, especially if you sold the overhead call that we initially listed as a hedge. Seriously, no one knows if the VIX will be trading at 45 or 80 by next Tuesday. There is a growing expectation that we might see a stock market spike lower tomorrow and then reverse higher marking another selling climax. This sort of move could produce a bearish reversal in the VIX but it's just speculation.

Please see the CBOE website for details on margin requirements for selling VIX options. Link:
http://www.cboe.com/Products/indexopts/vixoptions_spec.aspx

Note: VIX options are European style options that settle for cash at expiration. Furthermore VIX options have unique expiration dates. November options expire on Wednesday, November 19, 2008 and will stop trading on Tuesday, November 18th.

Position Summary:

VIX spread #2 with November options (date Oct. 12th):

We wanted to SELL the November 30 calls (opening price 10/13/08 was $ 8.60) and BUY the November 50 (opening price was $1.61) as a hedge against the VIX remaining elevated.

Hypothetically we have sold the November 30 calls at $8.60 (credit). We bought the Nov. 50 calls for $1.61 (debit). Based on these numbers we would need the VIX to close under 37.00 for us to be profitable. If it closes higher than 37.00 then the intrinsic value of the Nov. 30 calls will be higher than what we paid for it and we'll have to come up with the difference. Example: if the VIX is at 40.00 another $1.40 will be taken out of our accounts when the VIX options are settled because the Nov. 30 call will be worth $10.00.

Now, if you sold the higher-strike call (Nov.50) when we discussed it a couple of weeks ago you could have gotten $9.00-11.00 for it. Let's say you got $10.00 for it. Now our "credit" to our account is $8.60 for the Nov. 30 calls and $8.39 ($10.00 for selling Nov. 50 call minus the $1.61 we paid for it) for a total income of $16.99. This gives us a much wider margin for error. With this scenario, the VIX would have to close over 47.00 before we lost any money.

Alternatively if you sold the Nov. 50 call around $5.00 then our breakeven point is a VIX settling at 42.00.

In a different format the play is:

SELL CALL NOV 30.00 VIX-KF.
Monday 10/13/08 open 8.60, high 9.80, closed 8.40
Update 10/15/08 open 10.00, high 13.00, closed 13.00 
Update 10/16/08 open 13.70, high 16.20, closed 13.25
Update 10/17/08 open 15.55, high 17.70, closed 17.50bid
Update 10/20/08 open 16.30, high 17.20, closed 15.00bid
Update 10/21/08 open -----, high 15.50, closed 14.40bid
Update 10/22/08 open 16.40, high 19.20, closed 18.10bid
Update 10/23/08 open 17.50, high 21.40, closed 20.30bid
Update 10/24/08 open 25.00, high 26.50, closed 25.80bid
Update 10/27/08 open 26.32, high 26.45, closed 29.30bid<-high
Update 10/28/08 open 29.00, high 29.00, closed 23.70bid
Update 10/29/08 open 25.60, high 25.60, closed 26.20bid
Update 10/30/08 open 24.06, high 27.32, closed 25.20bid
Update 10/31/08 open 25.20, high 25.20, closed 24.30bid
Update 11/03/08 open 24.50, high 24.50, closed 21.50bid
Update 11/04/08 open 19.00, high 19.00, closed 16.80bid
Update 11/05/08 open 17.56, high 20.60, closed 20.20bid
Update 11/06/08 open 26.90, high 28.00, closed 27.50bid
Update 11/07/08 open 26.30, high 27.00, closed 24.70bid
Update 11/10/08 open 23.30, high 27.00, closed 25.70bid
Update 11/11/08 open 29.27, high 29.27, closed 28.20bid
Update 11/12/08 open 31.00, high 33.60, closed 33.30bid <- new high

-and-

BUY CALL NOV 50.00 VIX-KJ.
Monday 10/13/08 open 1.61, high 2.10, closed 1.50
Update 10/15/08 open 2.00, high 3.60, closed 3.60 
Update 10/16/08 open 3.70, high 5.50, closed 3.65
Update 10/17/08 open 4.50, high 5.30, closed 5.50ask
Update 10/20/08 open 3.90, high 5.30, closed 4.40ask
Update 10/21/08 open ----, high 4.70, closed 3.80ask
Update 10/22/08 open 4.30, high 6.60, closed 6.40ask
Update 10/23/08 open 5.70, high 7.70, closed 7.30ask
Update 10/24/08 open 10.10, high 11.00, closed 11.00ask
Update 10/27/08 open 11.43, high 13.80, closed 14.20ask<-high/suggested sell
Update 10/28/08 open 11.00, high 13.30, closed  9.40ask
Update 10/29/08 open  9.23, high 10.70, closed 11.00ask
Update 10/30/08 open  8.69, high 10.90, closed 10.00ask
Update 10/31/08 open 10.30, high 10.30, closed  9.00ask
Update 11/03/08 open  8.34, high 8.34, closed 7.00ask
Update 11/04/08 open  3.50, high 3.70, closed 4.00ask
Update 11/05/08 open  4.20, high 5.90, closed 5.60ask
Update 11/06/08 open  6.00, high 12.00, closed 11.20ask
Update 11/07/08 open  9.80, high 9.80, closed 8.00ask
Update 11/10/08 open 6.00, high 9.25, closed 8.50ask
Update 11/11/08 open 10.60, high 12.10, closed 9.90ask
Update 11/12/08 open 10.95, high 14.50, closed 14.70 <-new high

Picked on October 12 at $ 69.95
Change since picked:     - 3.49  
 

-

VIX spread #3 with November options (published 10/22/08):

We wanted to SELL the November 35 calls (10/23/08 opening price was $ 14.00) and BUY the November 60 (10/23/08 opening price was $3.00) as a hedge against the VIX remaining elevated. We'll fill in the prices Thursday morning. Our account will be credited with the amount for selling the November 35 calls, while it the price paid for the 60 calls will be deducted.

Hypothetically we have sold the November 35 calls at $14.00 (credit). We bought the Nov. 60 calls for $3.00 (debit). Based on these numbers we would need the VIX to close under 46.00 for us to be profitable. If it closes higher than 46.00 then the intrinsic value of the Nov. 35 calls will be higher than what we paid for it and we'll have to come up with the difference. Example: if the VIX is at 50.00 at settlement another $6.00 because the Nov. 35 call will be worth $20.00.

Now, if you sold the higher-strike call (Nov.60) when we discussed it a couple of weeks ago you could have gotten $5.50-6.50 for it. Let's say you got $6.00 for it. Now our "credit" to our account is $14.00 for the Nov. 35 calls and $3.00 ($6.00 for selling the Nov. 60 call minus the $3.00 we paid for it) for a total income of $17.00. This gives us a much wider margin for error. With this scenario, the VIX would have to close over 52.00 before we lost any money.

Alternatively if you sold the Nov. 50 call around $3.00 then our breakeven point is a VIX settling at 49.00.

In a different format the play is:

SELL CALL NOV 35.00 VIX-KI
Wednesday 10/22/08 closed at 14.00 bid
Update 10/23/08 open 14.00, high 17.00, closed 15.30bid
Update 10/24/08 open 19.40, high 21.50, closed 20.60bid
Update 10/27/08 open 23.00, high 23.00, closed 23.90bid <-high
Update 10/28/08 open 22.93, high 24.70, closed 18.60bid
Update 10/29/08 open 19.59, high 21.13, closed 20.90bid
Update 10/30/08 open 18.50, high 22.00, closed 20.30bid
Update 10/31/08 open 21.10, high 21.10, closed 19.20bid
Update 11/03/08 open 19.31, high 19.31, closed 19.10bid
Update 11/04/08 open 14.80, high 14.80, closed 11.80bid
Update 11/05/08 open 13.05, high 14.40, closed 15.30bid
Update 11/06/08 open 17.60, high 23.90, closed 22.00bid
Update 11/07/08 open 21.40, high 21.40, closed 19.30bid
Update 11/10/08 open 17.30, high 21.74, closed 20.30bid
Update 11/11/08 open 23.90, high 25.00, closed 22.60bid
Update 11/12/08 open 25.25, high 27.48, closed 28.20bid <-new high
-and-

BUY CALL NOV 60.00 VIX-KN
Wednesday 10/22/08 closed at 3.70 ask
Update 10/23/08 open 3.00, high 4.50, closed 4.10ask
Update 10/24/08 open 7.00, high 7.00, closed 6.90ask
Update 10/27/08 open 6.91, high 8.80, closed 9.00ask <-high/suggested sell
Update 10/28/08 open 7.60, high 8.60, closed 5.50ask
Update 10/29/08 open 5.40, high 6.30, closed 6.50ask
Update 10/30/08 open 4.90, high 6.20, closed 5.80ask
Update 10/31/08 open 5.90, high 6.10, closed 4.90ask
Update 11/03/08 open 4.60, high 4.81, closed 3.50ask
Update 11/04/08 open 1.15, high 1.60, closed 1.75ask
Update 11/05/08 open 1.66, high 2.70, closed 2.45ask
Update 11/06/08 open 2.80, high 6.90, closed 6.30ask
Update 11/07/08 open 5.70, high 5.70, closed 3.30ask
Update 11/10/08 open 2.80, high 4.20, closed 3.70ask
Update 11/11/08 open 4.40, high 5.50, closed 4.00ask
Update 11/12/08 open 5.20, high 6.60, closed 6.90ask

Picked on October 12 at $ 69.65
Change since picked:     - 4.22 
VIX spread #4 with November options (published 11/08/08):

Strategy Change!
Today's bullish breakout in the VIX is a game changer with only four days left before November VIX option expiration.

We are suggesting investors cover their short Nov. 50 call position (currently worth about $14.20).

Now, the next step is up to you. You could sell the long Nov. 65 call and lock in a loss of $5.55 (give or take). Or you can let the long Nov. 65 call position ride. If the VIX rises another 5 points then we might be able to recoup our losses. It's a gamble but the trend is in our favor.

Update: Currently we're down about $5.55 on this play.

  Sold Nov.50 call (14.20 - 6.00) = $8.20
- Bought Nov.65 call (4.40 - 1.75)= $2.65
= $5.55 increase in short call value. 

Since we're short the call, an increase in the Nov. 50 call's value is a loss for us offset by any gains in the Nov. 65 call.

We wanted to SELL the November 50 calls (11/10/08 opening price was $ 6.00) and BUY the November 65 (11/10/08 opening price was $1.75) as a hedge against the VIX remaining elevated. Our account will be credited with the amount for selling the November 50 calls, while the price paid for the 60 calls will be deducted.

In a different format the play is:

SELL CALL NOV 50.00 VIX-KJ
Update 11/10/08 open  6.00, high  9.25, closed 7.90bid
Update 11/11/08 open 10.60, high 12.10, closed 9.50bid
Update 11/12/08 open 10.95, high 14.50, closed 14.20bid
-and-

BUY CALL NOV 65.00 VIX-KO
Update 11/10/08 open 1.75, high 2.65, closed 2.35ask
Update 11/11/08 open 2.65, high 3.50, closed 2.50ask
Update 11/12/08 open 2.91, high 4.40, closed 4.40ask

Picked on November 08 at $ 56.10
Change since picked:      + 5.34


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Bunge Ltd. - BG - close: 39.83 change: -3.67 stop: 40.49

The widespread market weakness was enough to push BG to an 8.4% sell-off. The stock broke technical support at its 10-dma and round-number support at $40.00. Shares hit our stop loss at $40.49 closing the play.

Nimble traders may want to switch to bearish positions if BG trades under $39.45 again.

Chart:
BG

Picked on November 09 at $ 44.22 /stopped out 40.49
Change since picked:      - 4.39
Earnings Date           10/23/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       3.7 million  


ITT Educ. Services - ESI - close: 83.70 change: -3.47 stop: 83.95

Last night we wanted to reduce our risk so we raised the stop loss to $83.95. ESI followed the stock market lower today and hit our stop loss closing the play. The intermediate trend is still bullish for ESI. We'd keep an eye on it for another opportunity down the road.

Chart:
ESI

Picked on November 09 at $ 86.20  / stopped out 83.95
Change since picked:      + 0.97
Earnings Date           10/23/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.4 million  


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