BHP Billiton Plc - BBL - close: 45.91 change: -1.80 stop: 41.90 BBL could hit our trigger soon. The stock almost got there today with a gap down and a drop to $45.09. Traders bought the dip but the stock stalled at $46.30 (twice). I'm expecting a pull back toward $44.00 soon. Our entry range to buy calls is the $44.50-42.50 zone. Consider waiting for a dip toward the bottom of that zone (43.00-42.50). If triggered our first target is $49.90. Our second target is $54.00. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $62 target.
Dominos Pizza - DPZ - close: 8.94 change: -0.26 stop: 8.20 DPZ was not immune to the market-wide profit taking. Shares hovered around the $9.00 level most of the day. I am now expecting a dip toward $8.50. Wait for that dip as your entry point (8.60-8.50). Our target is the $11.50-12.00 zone. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $20 target.
Factset Research - FDS - close: 53.54 change: +0.08 stop: 51.65 FDS showed a little bit of strength with a bounce from short-term support near $52.00 and a bullish engulfing candlestick. The rally stalled as the market pushed toward its lows for the day. We're not suggesting new positions at current levels. FDS has exceeded our first target and we're currently aiming for $59.00. The Point & Figure chart is very bullish with a $79 target.
Flowserve - FLS - close: 72.15 change: +2.23 stop: 69.85 FLS spiked toward $70 on the market's initial move lower this morning but the stock managed to bounce at $70.62. I wouldn't be surprised to see another dip toward $70 tomorrow. Use another pull back into the $70.70-70.00 zone as a new bullish entry point. I strongly suggest that readers take off at least half if not 3/4s of their position at our first target. Our first target is $74.95. Our second target is $79.75. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $97 target. My time frame is about eight weeks.
Currencyshares British Pound - FXB - cls: 151.11 chg: -1.08 stop: 147.25 The U.S. dollar managed an oversold bounce today. This weighed on the rally in the Pound, which had hit new relative highs last week. I don't see any changes from our weekend comments. If you're looking for a new entry point watch for a dip in the $148-147.50 zone. Our target is $157.00, which we expect to hit before June option expiration. That might be a little too aggressive. We'll see. More conservative traders could buy longer-dated options. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $176 target.
iShares China ETF - FXI - close: 34.36 change: -1.55 stop: 31.45 China released some economic news this morning that showed its economy falling deeper into a deflationary trend. Many economists believe this trend is temporary and that the economy will improve by year end. I think investors used the report as an excuse to take profits. The Chinese markets have seen huge gains since their March lows and today the FXI gave up 4.3%. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Wait for a dip near its rising 10-dma or the $33.00-32.50 area before initiating new call positions. We have two targets. Our first target to take profits is $36.45. Our second target is $39.45.
Intl. Bus. Mach. - IBM - close: 102.90 change: +1.41 stop: 99.65 IBM delivered a little oversold bounce on Monday with a 1.3% gain. The close back above support/resistance level at $102.00 is positive. However, I suggest readers remain cautious here. The rally failed under the $104 level (previous resistance) and some of the very short-term indicators remain bearish. Currently our target is $109.40.
Lockheed Martin - LMT - close: 80.35 change: -2.11 stop: 78.75 *new* LMT came so close to our target on Friday only to get smacked lower today with a 2.5% loss. Readers may want to go ahead and exit early. Momentum in LMT and the market is waning. I'm inching up our stop loss to $78.75. We're not suggesting new bullish positions here. Our target to exit remains $82.50.
Mastercard - MA - close: 180.98 change: -4.10 stop: 159.90 MA is back to testing the $180 level again. I think it will break this time. There is some support in the $176-175 zone but I would look for a dip near $170.00 and its 200-dma before buying calls again. We have two targets. We want to take some money off the table at $198.50 since the $200.00 mark could be round-number resistance. Our second target is $218.50. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $218 target.
ProShares UltraShort - SDS - close: 58.05 change: +2.02 stop: 58.40 I am adjusting our trigger to buy calls on the SDS to $63.05. I'm moving the stop loss to $58.40. If triggered our first target is $69.95. Our second target is $74.40. FYI: Don't forget that the SDS is the ultra-short or double-short inverse ETF so it should see twice the volatility of the S&P 500
Visa - V - close: 65.93 change: -2.50 stop: 65.45 V continues to churn sideways in its new trading range. The intraday rally failed at $68.00 and then suddenly plunged to $66.00. Currently we have a trigger to buy calls at $69.00. If this stock breaks down instead I will set a new trigger to buy calls at $60.50 (stop loss 57.40 under the 50-dma). Our first target, if triggered at $69.00, is the $74.00 level. The P&F chart is very bullish with a $95 target.
Becton Dickinson - BDX - close: 62.54 change: -0.28 stop: varies There is no real change from our weekend comments on BDX. BDX is still trying to rebound. We're still waiting for an entry point. Hopefully it will be the $66.50 entry point. I am listing two different entry points and exit strategies for this stock.
Entry point #1.
Entry point #2.
Northrop Grumman - NOC - close: 49.29 change: -1.25 stop: 50.85 Friday's close over $50.00 and its 200-dma looks like a head fake. Wait for a new drop under $49.00 or $48.00 before opening new put positions on NOC. Our target is $44.25 or the 50-dma, whichever one NOC hits first.
Volatility Index - VIX - close: 32.87 change: +0.82 stop: 40.55 The VIX spiked higher this morning as stocks opened lower but that proved to be the high for the day. The VIX slowly drifted lower most of the session suggesting that investors were not really concerned about today's decline in the market. I am not suggesting new positions on the VIX. The VIX has surpassed our first target to take profits at $35.00. We have a second target to exit completely at 31.00. Initially we suggested the May puts but readers might want to use July or August puts instead due to the SEC's plan to re-instate the up tick rule is more than two months away. FYI: The May 2009 vix options are set to expire on Wednesday, May 20th.
(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.) Apple Inc. - AAPL - close: 129.57 change: +0.38 stop: n/a AAPL continues to show relative strength but the rally today was fading lower into the closing bell. We have four days left and need to see AAPL trade north of $135.00 for us to recoup our capital. More conservative traders may want to exit earlier based on how fast you want to get out. I am not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. The options we suggested were the May $130 calls (APV-EF) and the May $110 puts (QAA-QB). Our estimated cost was $5.12. We want to sell if either option hits $5.12 or higher.
Gold ETF - GLD - close: 89.69 change: -0.29 stop: n/a The U.S. dollar produced an oversold bounce and this pushed gold a little lower. I don't see any changes from our previous comments. The GLD might dip back toward $88.50-88.00 if the dollar keeps bounce but the trend in the dollar is now down. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The options we suggested were the June $95 calls (GLD-FQ) and the June $80.00 puts (GLD-RB). Our estimated cost was $1.95. We want to sell if either option hits $4.85 or higher.
Google - GOOG - close: 407.98 change: + 0.65 stop: n/a GOOG managed to hit a new high at $412.00 early this afternoon but eventually gave back most of its gains. We are down to four days left and still need to see a big move out of this stock. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. The options we suggested were the May $420 calls (GOP-ED) and the May $340 puts (GGD-QE). Our estimated cost was $18.10. I'm adjusting our target toward breakeven. We want to sell if either option hits $18.10 or higher
Alcon Inc. - ACL - close: 96.23 change: +0.21 stop: 92.45 Over the weekend I suggested that readers exit if ACL didn't show us some strength on Monday. With the S&P 500 down 2% and ACL up 0.2% it's not hard to see that ACL did produce some relative strength. However, I'm still going to drop ACL as a bullish candidate. It might be worth adding to your watch list for a dip or bounce in the $92-90 zone or a new close over $100.
Chart:
Energizer Holdings - ENR - close: 54.06 chg: -2.42 stop: 54.95 Unexpected news is always frustrating if we're on the wrong side of a move. This morning before the bell ENR announced that they were buying the Edge and Skintimate shaving brands from S.C.Johnson for $275 million. Furthermore ENR was going to sell an extra 9.5 million shares of stock to help pay for the purchase. Investors don't like being diluted and the stock gapped open lower at $53.57, which was way below our stop loss at $54.95. This play was closed immediately.
Chart:
Intercontinental Exch. - ICE - close: 92.28 change: -5.00 stop: 94.35 Our buy the dip play in ICE has failed. When the Asian markets and then European markets all rolled over today the U.S. markets were destined to see some profit taking. When the stock market opened lower ICE quickly gave up short-term support in the $95-94 zone and hit our stop loss at $94.35 (under last Thursday's low). The stock actually gapped open lower at $95.00, which affected our entry point. Readers might want to put ICE on their watch list. The stock should find more support near $85.00.
Chart:
Shaw Group Inc. - SGR - close: 28.85 change: -1.26 stop: 28.45 I'm cutting SGR loose. The stock is not performing and can't seem to build on any of its bounces. Maybe we can look at it again as a bullish candidate if it bounces from support near $26 and its 100-dma. Under $25.00 this is probably a bearish candidate with a $20 target.
Chart:
 |
