Amazon.com - AMZN - close: 82.15 change: -1.03 stop: 79.75 The action in the NASDAQ is turning more bearish. The MACD has gone negative. The index closed under the 1800 level today. Odds are pretty good we could be looking at a dip to 1750 or 1700 for the composite. A continued sell-off in tech is going to push AMZN toward support near $80.00 and its rising 50-dma. Shares could breakdown and hit our stop loss. At this time I would wait for a dip to and a bounce from the $80.00 level before considering new positions. Our first target is $89.00. Our second target is $97.50. The P&F chart has produced a new buy signal with a $101 target.
Apollo Group - APOL - close: 63.52 change: -0.10 stop: 60.99 APOL is actually holding up reasonably well considering the market weakness. The stock is trading between resistance at $66.00 and short-term support in the $62-61 zone. We're still waiting for a breakout over $66.00. Our trigger to buy calls is at $66.10. If triggered our first target to take profits is $69.95. Our second target is $74.00. I consider this somewhat aggressive because APOL has technical resistance at its 200-dma and 100-dma. The Point & Figure chart is forecasting an $82 target. We do not want to hold over the late June earnings report. We will plan to exit on Friday, June 26th or Monday, June 29th.
Allegheny Tech. - ATI - close: 38.22 change: -1.21 stop: 37.40 *new* Uh-oh! Bulls may be in trouble. The U.S. dollar tuned lower today but the material stocks failed to bounce. Traders were still taking profits in the metal producers like ATI. The early morning rally attempt failed at the 10-dma and now the MACD has produced a new sell signal. We are raising our stop loss to $37.40. More conservative traders might want to consider an early exit altogether. Yesterday I suggested looking for a dip near $38.00 and we got it but the major market indices look vulnerable to more profit taking so I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target is $44.85. Our second target is $49.45.
EOG Resources - EOG - close: 73.86 change: -2.39 stop: 72.75 *new* EOG was downgraded to an under perform this morning, which probably contributed to the 3.1% decline. I'm turning more cautious as the oil stocks tread lower. Currently EOG is testing technical support at its 30-dma and exponential 200-dma near $73.00. I'm upping our stop loss to $72.75. Our first target is $79.95. Our second target is $84.80.
Intl.Bus.Mach. - IBM - close: 107.32 change: -0.30 stop: 104.90 *new* IBM is still holding on to its narrow channel higher but it appears to be losing its grip. I warned readers earlier about the MACD bearish divergence on IBM's daily chart. We are raising our stop loss to $104.90. More aggressive traders may want to keep their stop loss under the simple 50-dma instead. I'm not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Our first target is $113.50. Our second target is $118.50.
Mastercard - MA - close: 163.56 change: -2.91 stop: 158.90 MA is slowly withering lower. I've warned readers before that MA's short-term trend has turned more bearish inside its larger up trend. The stock is now testing the early June lows and will soon be testing technical support at the rising 100-dma and the descending 200-dma - on top of testing the $160 level soon. More conservative traders, if you're still in this trade, will want to consider an early exit. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. We have two targets. We want to take some money off the table at $198.50 since the $200.00 mark could be round-number resistance. Our second target is $218.50. FYI: If MA hits our stop loss readers may want to consider bearish strategies.
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Mobile Telesys - MBT - close: 39.70 change: -1.08 stop: 37.85 *new* Traders need to use caution here and more conservative traders may want to exit early! MBT has produced another failed rally under $42.00 and is now testing its exponential 200-dma as short-term support. I'm not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Please note that I'm raising our stop loss to $37.85. MBT should have some support at the $38.00 level. Our first target to take profits is $44.95. We do have a second target at $49.00 but that could take a while to reach.
Middleby Corp. - MIDD - close: 46.43 change: -1.60 stop: 45.90 This is it. MIDD has reached a pivotal test near $46.00. Will it bounce or will it break the up trend? Considering the action in the overall market more conservative traders may want to exit early now. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target is $54.00. Our second target is $59.00. The P&F chart is bullish with a $64 target.
Research In Motion - RIMM - close: 80.29 chg -0.09 stop: 79.40 RIMM tried to bounce this morning after one firm raised their price target to $100. Unfortunately the rebound ran out of steam near $83.50. I am not suggesting new positions. More conservative traders may want to exit early right now. We already have plans to exit on Thursday at the closing bell to avoid holding over RIMM's earnings report on Thursday night.
Reliance Steel - RS - close: 39.76 change: -0.81 stop: 38.75 It doesn't look good for the metal and material stocks like RS. The early morning pop on dollar weakness was quickly used as a chance for traders to sell into strength. The close under $40.00 is short-term bearish. More conservative traders may want to exit early now. I'm not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Our first target is $44.75. Our second target is $49.00. My time frame is about eight weeks. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $53 target.
Schlumberger - SLB - close: 56.97 chg: -1.62 stop: 57.75 SLB displayed some volatility with a failed rally near $60.00 and a 2.7% loss. We still have two different entry points to launch new positions but I'm adjusting our stop for the trigger at $56.06. If SLB rallies from here we want to buy calls again at $60.55 with a stop loss at $57.25. If SLB continues to slip then we want to buy calls at $56.05 with a stop loss at $55.45. Our first target is $64.90. Our second target is $68.40.
SunPower - SPWRA - close: 29.00 change: -1.30 stop: 27.75 I heard some negative comments that might affect SPWRA. The country of Spain was drastically reducing some of its incentives for solar energy somewhere in the ballpark of 75% to 90%. This could have a big impact on solar energy companies that do business in Europe. Shares of SPWRA lost 4.2% on Tuesday. I would wait for a dip to and bounce from the $28.00 level before considering new bullish positions. Considering the general weakness across the market more conservative traders may want to exit early now. Currently the Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $48 target. Our first target is $37.40. The 200-dma near $40.00 looks like possible resistance.
Teva Pharma. - TEVA - close: 47.77 change: -0.09 stop: 45.40 The rally in TEVA is slowly consolidating. I don't see any changes from my prior comments. Dips near $46.50-46.00 can be used as a new bullish entry point. Our exit target is $49.85. My time frame is very late July.
MDC Holdings - MDC - close: 29.10 change: +0.33 stop: 31.05 *new* The action in MDC looks like a failed rally at $30.00. Readers can use this as a new bearish entry point. I am lowering our stop loss to $31.05. More conservative traders may want to start taking profits now. Our first target is $27.75. Our second target is $25.15.
Toll Brothers - TOL - close: 17.11 change: -0.15 stop: 18.75 *new* TOL, another homebuilder, also produced a new lower high. I am adjusting our stop to $18.75. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to take some profits now. Our target is $16.25.
(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.) Gold ETF - GLD - close: 91.93 change: +0.83 stop: n/a Confusing comments by Russian president Medvedev sent the dollar lower today. This gave gold a boost but the short-term trend is still down. Our strangle play is in serious trouble here. We only have three days left before June options expire. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. The options we suggested were the June $95 calls (GLD-FQ) and the June $80.00 puts (GLD-RB). Our estimated cost was $1.95. We want to sell if either option hits $1.95 (breakeven) or higher.
Alliant Tech - ATK - close: 86.03 change: -2.08 stop: 87.75 Yesterday ATK pulled back toward support near $88.00 but it did not hold. The profit taking continued and now ATK has broken its bullish up trend. Our play was stopped out at $87.75. A failed rally near $88 or $90 could be used as a new bearish entry point.
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Salesforce.com - CRM - close: 39.96 change: -0.67 stop: 39.95 CRM was trying to hold support at $40.00 but as the market slipped deeper into the afternoon CRM broke down. Shares hit our stop loss at $39.95.
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Flowserve - FLS - close: 78.62 change: -2.36 stop: 74.60 After further consideration we don't want to sit and wait for the pull back toward potential support at $75.00. Let's exit now given the close under $80.00 and just move FLS to our watch list and wait for the next entry point. It could be near $75.00. It could be near $70.00 and its 50-dma and exponential 200-dma.
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iShares Fincl.Srvcs - IYF - close: 42.44 change: -0.76 stop: 42.40 Investors are turning a little nervous ahead of Obama's speech tomorrow regarding new regulations for the financial industry. The banking indices lost about 2% and the IYF gave up 1.75%. Shares of the IYF hit our stop loss at $42.40 closing the play. This was always an aggressive, higher-risk trade and the plan was to use a smaller than normal position size. FYI: If the IYF closes under $42.00 or $41.00 readers may want to consider bearish trades.
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