Option Investor
Play Updates

Worse Than It Looked

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CALL Play Updates

Amazon.com - AMZN - close: 82.65 change: +0.50 stop: 79.75

The midday bounce in the markets rolled over as did the bounce in AMZN. Shares of AMZN failed near the $84.00 level. I expect another dip toward $80.00 tomorrow.

Our first target is $89.00. Our second target is $97.50. The P&F chart has produced a new buy signal with a $101 target.

Picked on     June 12 at $ 82.50 *triggered     
Change since picked:      + 0.15
Earnings Date           07/23/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       6.9 million  
Listed on  June 01, 2009         


Apollo Group - APOL - close: 66.40 change: +2.88 stop: 62.24 *new*

Education stocks were in rally mode on Wednesday yet I couldn't find a catalyst for any of these stocks to move higher today. Shares of APOL broke out over resistance at $66.00 and hit our trigger to buy calls at $66.10. We're upping our stop loss to $62.24.

Our first target to take profits is $69.95. Our second target is $74.00. I consider this somewhat aggressive because APOL has technical resistance at its 200-dma and 100-dma. The Point & Figure chart is forecasting an $82 target. We do not want to hold over the late June earnings report. We will plan to exit on Friday, June 26th or Monday, June 29th.

Chart:
APOL

Picked on     June 17 at $ 66.10 *triggered  
Change since picked:      + 0.30
Earnings Date           06/29/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       3.4 million  
Listed on  June 08, 2009         


Intl.Bus.Mach. - IBM - close: 107.00 change: -0.32 stop: 104.90

IBM continues to hold up very well but if you look at an intraday chart it certainly looks like the rally is getting tired and the stock appears ready to move lower. I wouldn't be surprised to see a dip back toward the $105 level or its rising 50-dma (which would stop us out). I've been warning about the bearish divergence between price and the MACD, which is only growing. I'm not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Our first target is $113.50. Our second target is $118.50.

Picked on     June 03 at $106.25 *triggered     
Change since picked:      + 0.75
Earnings Date           07/16/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       7.3 million  
Listed on  June 01, 2009         


Mastercard - MA - close: 164.26 change: +0.70 stop: 158.90

MA is trying to bounce from its 100-dma but the rebound didn't get very far this morning. I remain very cautious here and I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

We have two targets. We want to take some money off the table at $198.50 since the $200.00 mark could be round-number resistance. Our second target is $218.50.

FYI: If MA hits our stop loss readers may want to consider bearish strategies.

Picked on      May 04 at $176.07 *gap down entry
                               /originally listed at $178.99
Change since picked:      -11.81
Earnings Date           05/01/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       4.0 million  
Listed on   May 04, 2009         


Teva Pharma. - TEVA - close: 47.77 change: -0.00 stop: 45.40

TEVA is still holding up well. Shares closed unchanged on the session. Dips near $46.50-46.00 can be used as a new bullish entry point. Our exit target is $49.85. My time frame is very late July.

Picked on     June 03 at $ 46.49
Change since picked:      + 1.28
Earnings Date           07/29/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       5.0 million  
Listed on  June 03, 2009         


PUT Play Updates

L-3 Comm. - LLL - close: 71.42 change: -0.33 stop: 75.55

LLL continues to slip and the midday bounce near $71.80. I'm suggesting bearish positions now or on a bounce toward $74.00. More conservative traders might be able to get away with a stop near $74.50 instead of ours at $75.55. We should expect some sort of bounce at $70.00. Our first target is $66.00. Our second target is $61.00.

Picked on     June 16 at $ 71.75
Change since picked:      - 0.33
Earnings Date           07/23/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       976 thousand  
Listed on  June 16, 2009         


MDC Holdings - MDC - close: 29.66 change: +0.56 stop: 31.05

Hmmm... shares of MDC are actually up three days in a row. That hasn't happened in a while. Is the stock in the process of reversing or is this just an oversold bounce? More conservative traders may want to lower their stop toward $30.50 or just start taking profits now. I'm not suggesting new positions. Our first target is $27.75. Our second target is $25.15.

Picked on      May 20 at $ 32.31 /gap down entry
                               /originally listed at $32.87
Change since picked:      - 2.65
Earnings Date           07/30/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.1 million  
Listed on   May 20, 2009         


Symantec - SYMC - close: 15.94 change: +0.21 stop: 16.85

The minor bounce in SYMC appears to be rolling over near $16.00. I see this as a new entry point for puts. Our first exit target is $14.10.

Picked on     June 16 at $ 15.73
Change since picked:      + 0.21
Earnings Date           07/29/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =      16.8 million  
Listed on  June 16, 2009         


Toll Brothers - TOL - close: 17.08 change: -0.03 stop: 18.75

TOL hit new relative lows at $16.65 before trimming its losses. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to take some profits now. Our target is $16.25.

Picked on      May 20 at $ 18.98
Change since picked:      - 1.90
Earnings Date           06/03/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       4.7 million  
Listed on   May 20, 2009         


Strangle & Spread Play Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

Gold ETF - GLD - close: 92.35 change: +0.42 stop: n/a

Gold futures managed a meager bounce due to some dollar weakness. Unfortunately, we only have two days left before June options expire.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time. The options we suggested were the June $95 calls (GLD-FQ) and the June $80.00 puts (GLD-RB). Our estimated cost was $1.95. We want to sell if either option hits $1.95 (breakeven) or higher.

Picked on    April 30 at $ 87.27
Change since picked:      + 5.08
Earnings Date           00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume =        13 million  
Listed on April 30, 2009         


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Allegheny Tech. - ATI - close: 37.17 change: -1.05 stop: 37.40

Yesterday we raised our stop loss on ATI because the stock looked weak following a failed rally near its 10-dma. The material stocks continued to sell-off on Wednesday and ATI gapped open lower at $37.62 and quickly hit our stop loss at $37.40. Technicals have turned bearish but the trend is still up. Shares managed a bounce from their rising 40-dma, which is where ATI bounced in late May.

Chart:
ATI

Picked on     June 04 at $ 40.83 *gap higher entry
                               /originally listed at $40.36
Change since picked:      - 3.43<-- stopped out @ 37.40 (-8.4%)
Earnings Date           07/27/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       3.0 million  
Listed on  June 04, 2009         


EOG Resources - EOG - close: 73.25 change: -0.61 stop: 72.75

Crude oil futures bounced but that didn't stop the profit taking in oil and oil service stocks. EGO spiked down under $72.00 this morning before bouncing. Our stop loss was hit at $72.75. I'm still bullish on EOG but we need to wait for the next entry point.

Chart:
EOG

Picked on     June 10 at $ 75.25
Change since picked:      - 2.50<-- stopped out @ 72.75 (-3.3%)
Earnings Date           07/29/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       3.3 million  
Listed on  June 10, 2009         


Mobile Telesys - MBT - close: 38.61 change: -1.09 stop: 37.85

Yesterday we raised our stop loss on MBT because shares looked vulnerable. The stock did continue to sell-off and slipped to the rising 50-dma before bouncing. Our stop loss was hit at $37.85. I would keep MBT on your watch list in case shares recover and breakout over $42.00 again.

Chart:
MBT

Picked on      May 29 at $ 39.55 *triggered     
Change since picked:      - 1.70<-- stopped at $37.85 (-4.2%)
Earnings Date           05/26/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       2.4 million  
Listed on   May 28, 2009         


Middleby Corp. - MIDD - close: 46.32 change: -0.11 stop: 45.90

Shares of MIDD were weak first thing this morning and it dipped under $46.00 and hit our stop loss in the process. Momentum is definitely slowing and MIDD is in real danger of breaking its up trend.

Chart:
MIDD

Picked on     June 08 at $ 47.50 *triggered     
Change since picked:      - 1.60 <-- stopped out 45.90 (-3.3%)
Earnings Date           08/06/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       296 thousand 
Listed on  June 03, 2009         


Research In Motion - RIMM - close: 77.21 chg -3.08 stop: 79.40

There are a lot of expectations for RIMM to do well when it reports earnings tomorrow night. Yet investors appear to be turning cautious because the stock is sinking ahead of its report. The stock has broken round-number support at $80.00 and it's doing so on rising volume. Our stop loss was hit at $79.40.

Chart:
RIMM

Picked on     June 11 at $ 84.21 /gap higher entry
Change since picked:      - 4.81 <-- stopped out @ 79.40 (-5.7%)
Earnings Date           06/18/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =      17.4 million  
Listed on  June 02, 2009         


Reliance Steel - RS - close: 39.43 change: -0.33 stop: 38.75

RS, another metals stock, experienced a sharp sell-off this morning with a dip to $37.55. RS managed a bounce but the rebound struggled near $40.00, which is a bit ominous. Our stop was hit at $38.75.

Chart:
RS

Picked on     June 02 at $ 38.98 /gap down entry
                               /originally listed at $40.05
Change since picked:      - 0.23 <-- stopped @ 38.75 (- >1%)
Earnings Date           07/23/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.1 million  
Listed on  June 02, 2009         


Schlumberger - SLB - close: 55.98 chg: -0.99 stop: 57.75

It looks like I was too conservative with the SLB stop loss. Yesterday we raised the stop loss to $55.45 if we were triggered at $56.05. SLB dip slip under $56.00, opening the play to buy calls at $56.05, but the stock hit $55.34 and we had raised the stop to $55.45. Our new play is already closed.

Chart:
SLB

Picked on     June 17 at $ 56.05 
Change since picked:      - 0.60 <-- stopped out @ 55.45 (-1.0%)
Earnings Date           07/24/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        10 million  
Listed on  June 15, 2009         
   


SunPower - SPWRA - close: 28.01 change: -0.99 stop: 27.75

Solar energy stocks continued to get hammered. SPWRA broke down under the $28.00 level and actually traded under its 50-dma before paring its losses. The stock's MACD has just turned negative. Our stop loss was hit at $27.75.

Chart:
SPWRA

Picked on     June 06 at $ 31.57
Change since picked:      - 3.82<-- stopped out @ 27.75 (-12%)
Earnings Date           07/16/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       2.2 million  
Listed on  June 06, 2009         


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