CALL Play Updates

Apple Inc. - AAPL - close: 137.37 change: -2.11 stop: 134.45

Warning! AAPL has produced a bearish reversal pattern. The stock gapped open higher at $140.67 Monday morning. The move may have been fueled by news that AAPL sold over 1 million of its new 3GS iPhones since its Friday launch. That was significantly higher than analysts expected and at least one firm raised their earnings guidance on AAPL. Unfortunately, this positive sales news was hindered by reports that Steve Jobs, rumored to have been at work today after a medical leave of absence, had undergone a liver transplant a couple of months ago.

Overall the combination of the market's breakdown today and AAPL's bearish reversal candlestick has me turning very cautious. More conservative traders may want to up their stops or even abandon ship early. I would wait for a new relative high over $141.60 or a bounce from the $135.00 level before considering new bullish positions.

Our primary target is $149.00. I'm setting a secondary target at $157.50. More aggressive traders could aim higher. We plan to exit ahead of the July 21st earnings report. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is forecasting a $231 target.

Picked on     June 20 at $140.67 /gap higher entry
                               /originally listed at $139.48
Change since picked:      - 3.30
Earnings Date           07/21/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        20 million  
Listed on  June 20, 2009         


Apollo Group - APOL - close: 64.35 change: -1.84 stop: 62.85 *new*

Traders need to turn more defensive here as well. APOL's bullish breakout over resistance last week has rolled over and shares are back under the $66-65 zone. More conservative traders may want to exit early. I'm raising our stop loss to 62.85.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target to take profits is $69.95. Our second target is $74.00. The Point & Figure chart is forecasting an $82 target. We do not want to hold over the June 29 earnings report. We will plan to exit on Friday, June 26th or Monday, June 29th.

Picked on     June 17 at $ 66.10 *triggered  
Change since picked:      - 1.75
Earnings Date           06/29/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       3.4 million  
Listed on  June 08, 2009         


Becton Dickinson - BDX - close: 68.23 change: -0.92 stop: 67.75

There is no change from my previous comments. We're still waiting for a breakout higher. Our trigger to buy calls is at $70.51.

If triggered our first target to take profits is $74.90. Our second target is $79.00. Currently the Point & Figure chart is bullish and forecasts an $86 target. We don't want to hold over the late July earnings report. Note: I'll admit that our second target at $79 is a little aggressive considering our time frame. Be sure to take some money off the table at $74.90.

Picked on     June xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/23/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.8 million  
Listed on  June 18, 2009         


Express Scripts - ESRX - close: 64.90 change: -1.49 stop: 59.99

Our buy the dip entry point at $65.25 has been hit. Traders bought the bounce near $64.00. Considering the market's weakness today more conservative traders may want to ratchet up their stops pretty tight. Our first target is $69.90. Our second target is $74.75. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $77 target.

Chart:

Picked on     June 22 at $ 65.25
Change since picked:      - 0.35
Earnings Date           07/29/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       3.7 million  
Listed on  June 18, 2009         


Teva Pharma. - TEVA - close: 46.75 change: -0.52 stop: 45.40

TEVA is still correction. I'm suggesting readers look for a dip in the $46.50-46.00 zone, which looks like it could happen tomorrow. Our exit target is $49.85. My time frame is very late July.

Picked on     June 03 at $ 46.49
Change since picked:      + 0.26
Earnings Date           07/29/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       5.0 million  
Listed on  June 03, 2009         


PUT Play Updates

L-3 Comm. - LLL - close: 70.79 change: -0.91 stop: 75.55

LLL continues to sink toward $70.00. More conservative traders might be able to get away with a stop near $74.50 instead of ours at $75.55. We should expect some sort of bounce at $70.00. Our first target is $66.00. Our second target is $61.00.

Picked on     June 16 at $ 71.75
Change since picked:      - 0.96
Earnings Date           07/23/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       976 thousand  
Listed on  June 16, 2009         


MDC Holdings - MDC - close: 29.24 change: +0.23 stop: 31.05

By some weird twist of fate MDC produced a bounce while the rest of the market was sinking. I wouldn't be surprised to see MDC move sideways while investors wait for the latest new home sales figures due out this week.

More conservative traders may want to lower their stop toward $30.50 or just start taking profits now. I'm not suggesting new positions. Our first target is $27.75. Our second target is $25.15.

Picked on      May 20 at $ 32.31 /gap down entry
                               /originally listed at $32.87
Change since picked:      - 3.07
Earnings Date           07/30/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.1 million  
Listed on   May 20, 2009         


Symantec - SYMC - close: 15.07 change: -0.81 stop: 16.10 *new*

Shares of SYMC gave up just over 5% with a breakdown under its 30-dma, its 100-dma and almost the $15.00 level. I am lowering our stop loss to $16.10. Our first exit target is $14.10.

Picked on     June 16 at $ 15.73
Change since picked:      - 0.66
Earnings Date           07/29/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =      16.8 million  
Listed on  June 16, 2009         


Toll Brothers - TOL - close: 16.43 change: -0.19 stop: 17.75 *new*

The low today was $16.33. Our exit target is $16.25. More conservative traders may want to go ahead and start taking profits right now. I'm not suggesting new positions. Please note our new stop loss at $17.75.

Picked on      May 20 at $ 18.98
Change since picked:      - 2.55
Earnings Date           06/03/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       4.7 million  
Listed on   May 20, 2009         


United Parcel Serv. - UPS - close: 46.84 change: -1.30 stop: 52.51

Uh-oh! It looks like UPS is going to decline without us. I was really expecting a bounce first toward $50.00 before seeing UPS decline. The stock lost 2.7% and hit new three-month lows today. Currently our trigger to open positions is at $49.50.

If triggered our first target to take profits is $45.50. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on     June xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/23/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       5.2 million  
Listed on  June 17, 2009         


Strangle & Spread Play Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

Walgreen - WAG - close: 29.64 change: -1.79 stop: n/a

WAG reported earnings this morning and the results disappointed Wall Street. Earnings were 3 cents under expectations and margins contracted. The stock gapped open lower at $30.06 and sank to $29.42 intraday. Shares closed with a 5.69% loss. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

The options I suggested were the July $35 calls (WAG-GG) and the July $27.50 puts (WAG-SY). Our estimated cost was .50. We want to sell if either option hits $1.25 or higher.

Picked on     June 18 at $ 31.72 
Change since picked:      - 2.08  
Earnings Date           06/22/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       6.3 million  
Listed on  June 18, 2009         


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Amazon.com - AMZN - close: 79.15 change: -3.81 stop: 79.75

Monday ended up being a rather ugly day for stocks with plenty of breakdowns under support. Tech stocks were hit hard with the NASDAQ off 3.3%. Shares of AMZN gave up 4.5% and broke through round-number support at $80.00, technical support at its 50-dma and technical support at the bottom of its bullish channel.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on     June 12 at $ 82.50 *triggered     
Change since picked:      - 2.75 <-- stopped out (-3.3%)
Earnings Date           07/23/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       6.9 million  
Listed on  June 01, 2009         


Intl.Bus.Mach. - IBM - close: 104.52 change: -0.44 stop: 104.90

Seven days in a row. It's been a while since IBM fell seven days in a row. Shares broke down under short-term support near $105.00 and hit our stop loss at $104.90 closing the play. At this time I would look for a pull back near $100 before considering new positions.

Chart:

Picked on     June 03 at $106.25 *triggered     
Change since picked:      - 1.35<-- stopped out @ 104.90 (-1.2%)
Earnings Date           07/16/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       7.3 million  
Listed on  June 01, 2009         


Mastercard - MA - close: 156.78 change: -4.57 stop: 158.90

Our aggressive call trade on MA is over. MA tried to bounce this morning but as the market sank the stock slipped toward the $160.00 level. After hovering there for a couple of hours MA eventually capitulated and broke down under $160.00, broke down under its 200-dma and broke down under the bottom edge of its wide, bullish channel. Our play(s) was stopped at $158.90.

Chart:

-- New Trade @ 161.35 --
Picked on     June 20 at $161.35 
Change since picked:      - 2.45<-- stopped out @ 158.90 (-1.5%)
Earnings Date           07/30/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       4.0 million  
Listed on  June 20, 2009

-- Original Trade --
Picked on      May 04 at $176.07 *gap down entry
                               /originally listed at $178.99
Change since picked:      -17.17<-- stopped out @ 158.90 (-9.7%)
Earnings Date           07/30/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       4.0 million  
Listed on   May 04, 2009         


Navistar Intl. - NAV - close: 43.50 change: -1.66 stop: 42.40

NAV recent bounce has failed. The stock gapped open lower at $44.37 and quickly fell past last week's lows and hit our stop loss at $42.40. Our new play was over in less than 40 minutes. I would keep an eye on NAV. A dip near $40.00 and its 50-dma or a dip near its exponential 200-dma might be a new entry point.

Chart:

Picked on     June 20 at $ 44.37 /gap down entry
                              /originally listed at $45.16
Change since picked:      + 1.97<-- stopped out @ 42.40 (-4.4%)
Earnings Date           09/03/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.1 million  
Listed on  June 20, 2009