CALL Play Updates

Euro Currency ETF - FXE - close: 139.38 chg: +0.57 stop: 137.90

The dollar managed a minor gain but the euro under performed and the FXE lost 0.4%. The 50-dma is rising up fast and should offer some additional support soon. I would still consider new bullish positions in the $139.00-141.00 zone.

Our first target is $144.50. Our second target is $148.50. The P&F chart is bullish with a $168 target.

Picked on     June 23 at $140.76
Change since picked:      - 1.38
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       461 thousand    
Listed on  June 23, 2009         


Gold Miner ETF - GDX - close: 36.76 change: +0.83 stop: 33.99

Gold and gold miners were up today. Unfortunately, the GDX gapped open higher probably due to the strength miners were showing in Europe. The GDX opened at $36.49 and essentially traded sideways. I would expect a dip back toward $36.00 before moving higher. Our first target is $39.00. This should be a quick play that only lasts a few days.

Picked on     July 13 at $ 36.49 /gap higher entry
                               /originally listed at $35.93
Change since picked:      + 0.27
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       6.8 million  
Listed on  July 13, 2009         


O'Reilly Automotive - ORLY - close: 40.14 change: +0.14 stop: 38.49

Traders are still buying the dip in ORLY but the stock didn't make much progress in spite of a generally bullish day for stocks. I would still consider new bullish positions here. Our first target is $44.00.

Picked on     July 13 at $ 40.00
Change since picked:      + 0.14
Earnings Date           07/29/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.9 million  
Listed on  July 13, 2009         


UltraShort SP& 500 - SDS - cls: 56.57 chg: -0.73 stop: 55.90

The bounce in the S&P 500 wasn't very inspiring. We had the big market rally on Monday, gains across the globe on Tuesday, and a strong earnings report from Goldman Sachs but the S&P gains less than five points. I would still buy calls on the SDS with the ETF above $56.00.

Due to this inverse ETF's volatility readers may want to trade half or less than their normal position size. Our first target to take profits is the $64.00 level. Our second target is the $67.00 level. My time frame is several weeks (toward August option expiration) but traders might want to buy September calls instead.

Picked on     July 08 at $ 60.50 *triggered     
Change since picked:      - 3.93
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =        40 million  
Listed on  July 07, 2009         


Ultra-Short REIT - SRS - close: 20.48 change: -0.44 stop: 19.45

Commercial real estate drift higher thanks to the widespread market rally but the overall trend is still down. This dip in the SRS toward $20.00 is a new entry point to buy calls.

This ETF can be somewhat volatile so I'm using a wide stop loss at $19.45. I suggest readers only trade half or less than their normal position size. Our first target is $26.00. Our second target is $29.50.

Picked on     July 09 at $ 22.67
Change since picked:      - 2.19
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =      27.8 million  
Listed on  July 09, 2009         


PUT Play Updates

Agrium Inc. - AGU - close: 37.14 change: +0.14 stop: 40.05

AGU trying to bounce but not making it very far with the 200-dma directly overhead. I would watch for a failed rally in the $39.00-40.00 zone as a new entry point for puts. Our first target is $35.10. Our second target is $31.00.

FYI: Readers should note that AGU is trying a hostile takeover for CF Industries, which is itself trying a hostile takeover of Terra Industries.

Picked on     July 06 at $ 38.75 *triggered     
Change since picked:      - 1.61
Earnings Date           07/27/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       4.2 million  
Listed on  June 30, 2009         


Core Labs - CLB - close: 83.28 change: +1.46 stop: 85.25

CLB has a six-week bearish trend of lower highs but today's gain is confirmation of yesterday's bullish reversal pattern. Yet today's gain was also fueled by light volume. I'm not suggesting new bearish positions but readers may want to consider an early exit right here.

CLB has already hit our first target at $80.25. Our second target is $76.00.

Picked on     July 01 at $ 83.16 /gap down entry
                              /originally listed at 84.53
Change since picked:      + 0.12
                              /1st target hit @ 80.25 (-3.5%)
Earnings Date           07/22/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       232 thousand 
Listed on  July 01, 2009         


Compass Minerals Intl. - CMP - cls: 49.01 change: +0.48 stop: 53.05 *new*

We were expecting an oversold bounce following yesterday's big declines. CMP struggled with the $49.50 level. I am lowering the stop again, this time to $53.05. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. CMP has exceeded our first target at $47.50. Our second target is $43.00.

Picked on     July 06 at $ 52.25 *triggered     
Change since picked:      - 3.24
                               /1st target hit @ 47.50 (-9.0%)
Earnings Date           07/27/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       792 thousand 
Listed on  June 29, 2009         


Costco - COST - close: 45.03 change: +0.06 stop: 46.10

COST just isn't moving. The stock failed to participate with the rally yesterday and today, which is bearish. Yet short-term support near $44.00-44.50 holds. We are still waiting for a breakdown under support at $44.00. Our plan is to buy puts at $43.90. If triggered our target is $40.25.

Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           10/08/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =      4.75 million  
Listed on  July 04, 2009         


Freeport McMoran - FCX - close: 48.18 change: +0.27 stop: 50.51

It looks like we have our new entry point. FCX spiked up to $50.10 and failed, which is exactly what we've been waiting for to launch new positions. FCX has already hit our first target at $45.25. Our second target is $41.00.

Picked on     July 04 at $ 47.92 /gap down entry
                               /originally listed at $49.72
Change since picked:      + 0.26
                               /1st target hit @ 45.25 (-5.5%)
Earnings Date           07/22/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        18 million  
Listed on  July 04, 2009         


MetLife Inc. - MET - close: 29.28 change: -0.11 stop: 30.35

MET did not participate in the market's rally today. Instead shares spent the session digesting yesterday's impressive move. We're waiting for the bounce to roll over as a new entry point to buy puts again. Our first target is $25.25. Our second target is $21.75.

Picked on     July 04 at $ 28.04
Change since picked:      + 1.24
Earnings Date           07/30/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       7.4 million  
Listed on  July 04, 2009         


Mosaic - MOS - close: 43.22 change: +0.76 stop: 45.05

Widespread strength in the market helped MOS produce a 1.7% gain but the rally was not enough to break the bearish trend of lower highs. I would launch new positions on a move under $42.00. More conservative trades may want to wait for a new decline under Friday's low of $39.64 to open position. This is an aggressive trade because MOS and the sector can be so volatile. Our first target is $35.50. We do not want to hold over the July 22nd (unconfirmed) earnings report.

Picked on     July 11 at $ 41.13
Change since picked:      + 2.09
Earnings Date           07/22/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       6.8 million  
Listed on  July 11, 2009         


NII Holdings - NIHD - close: 19.26 change: -0.07 stop: 20.10

Yesterday NIHD rallied through resistance. Today there wasn't much follow through. I'm repeating myself from yesterday but more conservative traders may want to abandon ship right now or lower your stop toward the $19.50 area like I suggested over the weekend. Tuesday's high was $19.51. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target is $16.15.

Picked on     July 04 at $ 18.61
Change since picked:      + 0.65
Earnings Date           07/23/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       2.9 million  
Listed on  July 04, 2009         


Sears Holdings - SHLD - close: 59.69 change: +2.10 stop: 64.25

We were expecting an oversold bounce in SHLD and we got it. Shares tried to rally to $60.00 but couldn't do it and spent most of the day drifting sideways under resistance. Wait for the bounce to roll over under resistance near $60.00 or the $62.00 level. Our first target is $55.10. Our second target is $50.50.

Picked on     July 07 at $ 59.75
Change since picked:      - 0.06
Earnings Date           08/27/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.2 million  
Listed on  July 07, 2009         


United Parcel Serv. - UPS - close: 49.58 change: +0.16 stop: 51.55

Both UPS and the transports are inching higher toward resistance. Wait for this rebound to fail before considering new positions.

Our first target to take profits is $45.50. I am setting a secondary target at $43.00. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on     June 26 at $ 49.50 *triggered     
Change since picked:      + 0.08
Earnings Date           07/23/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       5.2 million  
Listed on  June 17, 2009         


Weyerhaeuser - WY - close: 29.04 change: -0.05 stop: 31.51

We are still waiting for the bounce to roll over near resistance at the $30.00 level and its 100-dma. Our first target is $26.00. Our second target is $23.00. The P&F chart points to a $24 target.

Picked on     July 04 at $ 29.51
Change since picked:      - 0.47
Earnings Date           07/31/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       2.1 million  
Listed on  July 04, 2009         


Wynn Resorts - WYNN - close: 33.80 change: +1.49 stop: 35.25

The oversold bounce and probably some short covering in WYNN continues. The stock added 4.6% and is challenging short-term resistance near $34.00. More conservative traders might want to consider adjusting their stops to $34.28 (our entry point). I'm not suggesting new positions at this moment. WYNN has already exceeded our first target at $30.25. Our second target is $26.00.

Picked on     June 22 at $ 34.28
Change since picked:      - 0.48
                               /1st target hit @ 30.25 (-11.7%)
Earnings Date           07/30/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       3.4 million  
Listed on  June 22, 2009         


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

ITT Educational - ESI - close: 92.07 change: +2.13 stop: 92.65

Some of the education stocks were up sharply today. ESI managed to rally to $92.72 late this afternoon. That was enough to close the play with our stop at $92.65. We could argue that our stop was too tight since today's bounce was almost enough to tag the 10-dma. I would keep ESI on your watch list for a new drop under $89.00 as a bearish entry point.

Chart:

Picked on     July 09 at $ 88.99 *triggered     
Change since picked:      + 3.66<-- stopped out @ 92.65 (+4.1%)
Earnings Date           07/23/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       902 thousand 
Listed on  July 08, 2009         


L-3 Comm. - LLL - close: 68.46 change: +2.18 stop: 68.15

LLL was upgraded by J.P.Morgan this morning and the stock gapped open higher at $67.85 and then rallied to $68.66 intraday. Our stop loss was hit at $68.15. Readers might want to keep LLL on their watch list for a failed rally near $70.00, which may be a new entry point for bearish plays. LLL had already hit our first target at $66.00. Our second target was $61.00.

Chart:

Picked on     June 16 at $ 71.75
Change since picked:      - 3.60<-- stopped @ 68.15 (-5.0%)
                               /1st target hit @ 66.00 (-8.0%)
Earnings Date           07/23/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       976 thousand  
Listed on  June 16, 2009