CALL Play Updates

AutoZone Inc. - AZO - close: 157.85 change: -0.15 stop: 151.49

I remain concerned about AZO and its refusal to participate with the market's widespread strength. I'm not suggesting new bullish positions at this time and more conservative traders may want to up their stop loss. Our target is $169.00.

Picked on     July 14 at $158.77
Change since picked:      - 0.92
Earnings Date           09/22/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.0 million  
Listed on  July 14, 2009         


Bunge Ltd. - BG - close: 65.05 change: +1.50 stop: 57.49

We like the strength in shares of BG but the stock is short-term overbought with a run from $54.00 to $65.00 in just six days. We don't want to chase it here. We want to buy calls on a dip at $61.00. More conservative traders can wait for a dip closer to $60.00. Our first target is $67.40. We don't want to hold over the July 23rd earnings report.

Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/23/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.5 million  
Listed on  July 15, 2009         


Euro Currency ETF - FXE - close: 141.40 chg: +0.33 stop: 137.90

The dollar continues to sink and FXE continues to drift higher. If you're looking for an entry point look for a dip near $140. I would use the September calls. Our first target is $144.50. Our second target is $148.50. The P&F chart is bullish with a $168 target.

Picked on     June 23 at $140.76
Change since picked:      + 0.64
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       461 thousand    
Listed on  June 23, 2009         


Gold Miner ETF - GDX - close: 38.33 change: +0.04 stop: 34.90 *new*

The rally in gold and the miners stalled on Thursday. Look for a dip near $37.00 to $36.00. I'm raising our stop loss to $34.90. Our first target is $39.50. Our second target is $42.40.

Picked on     July 13 at $ 36.49 /gap higher entry
                               /originally listed at $35.93
Change since picked:      + 1.84
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       6.8 million  
Listed on  July 13, 2009         


O'Reilly Automotive - ORLY - close: 41.09 change: +0.21 stop: 38.49

ORLY provided traders another entry point near $40.00 this morning and then rallied to new highs again. Our first target is $44.00.

Picked on     July 13 at $ 40.00
Change since picked:      + 1.09
Earnings Date           07/29/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.9 million  
Listed on  July 13, 2009         


SPX Corp. - SPW - close: 51.84 change: +0.12 stop: 47.45

I also think SPW is short-term overbought. We want to buy calls on a dip in the $50.25-48.00 zone with a stop loss at $47.45. Our first target is $53.75. Our second target is $57.00 but we'll plan to exit ahead of the July 29th earnings report.

Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/29/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       777 thousand 
Listed on  July 15, 2009         


PUT Play Updates

Compass Minerals Intl. - CMP - cls: 49.93 change: +0.25 stop: 52.55

This is the second day in a row the early morning rally in CMP has failed under its 10-dma, which is good news for the bears. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. CMP has exceeded our first target at $47.50. Our second target is $43.00.

Picked on     July 06 at $ 52.25 *triggered     
Change since picked:      - 2.32
                               /1st target hit @ 47.50 (-9.0%)
Earnings Date           07/27/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       792 thousand 
Listed on  June 29, 2009         


Sears Holdings - SHLD - close: 63.25 change: +0.30 stop: 65.05 *new*

Upon closer inspection SHLD's trendline of lower highs puts resistance around $64.50. I'm raising our stop loss to $65.05. It is worth noting that the current bearish channel could actually end up being a bull-flag pattern should the retail sector, and SHLD, breakout higher. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time but watch for a failed rally in the $64-65 zone. More conservative traders may want to consider an early exit especially if the market continues to march higher. Our first target is $55.10. Our second target is $50.50.

Chart:

Picked on     July 07 at $ 59.75
Change since picked:      + 3.50
Earnings Date           08/27/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.2 million  
Listed on  July 07, 2009         


Weyerhaeuser - WY - close: 30.54 change: +0.12 stop: 31.51

WY is still inching higher and nearing resistance near $31.00. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target is $26.00. Our second target is $23.00. The P&F chart points to a $24 target.

Picked on     July 04 at $ 29.51
Change since picked:      + 1.03
Earnings Date           07/31/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       2.1 million  
Listed on  July 04, 2009         


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Agrium Inc. - AGU - close: 38.44 change: +1.30 stop: 40.05

There was news out this morning that VALE was considering a bid to buy Mosaic (MOS). Shares of MOS gapped open higher and closed with a 12% gain. This potential-merger news lifted the entire fertilizer industry. AGU spiked higher and hit our stop loss at $40.05.

Chart:

Picked on     July 06 at $ 38.75 *triggered     
Change since picked:      + 1.30 <-- stopped @ 40.05 (+3.3%)
Earnings Date           07/27/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       4.2 million  
Listed on  June 30, 2009         


United Parcel Serv. - UPS - close: 52.93 change: +2.40 stop: 51.05

Shipping stocks like Fedex (FDX) and UPS were soaring today as investors sifted through FDX's recent 10-K filing. FDX said they continue to see a tough business environment but also suggested some of their divisions were poised for improvement in the second half. This produced a real short-covering rally in FDX as it broke through the 200-dma and UPS followed. Shares of UPS hit our stop loss at $51.05.

Chart:

Picked on     June 26 at $ 49.50 *triggered     
Change since picked:      + 1.55<-- stopped out @ 51.05 (+3.1%)
Earnings Date           07/23/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       5.2 million  
Listed on  June 17, 2009