CALL Play Updates

AutoZone Inc. - AZO - close: 156.65 change: -0.33 stop: 151.49

AZO continues to under perform the market but if we were going to reconsider a new entry point then this is it. The stock dipped toward very short-term support near $154.00, while breaking support at the 50-dma and the $155.00 level in the process, only to bounce back. This is a new higher low in its short-term trend of lows. I'm raising our stop loss to $154.25. Our target is $169.00. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $186 target.

Chart:

Picked on     July 14 at $158.77
Change since picked:      - 2.12
Earnings Date           09/22/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.0 million  
Listed on  July 14, 2009         


Euro Currency ETF - FXE - close: 142.25 chg: +1.24 stop: 138.75

Weakness in the U.S. dollar has lifted FXE above short-term resistance at $142.00. The MACD on the daily chart has just produced a new buy signal. Our first target is $144.50. Our second target is $148.50. The P&F chart is bullish with a $168 target.

Picked on     June 23 at $140.76
Change since picked:      + 1.49
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       461 thousand    
Listed on  June 23, 2009         


Gold Miner ETF - GDX - close: 40.23 change: +1.59 stop: 35.90 *new*

Target achieved. Weakness in the dollar fueled a rally in gold and the gold-miner ETF surged 4.1%. The GDX gapped open higher at $39.95. Our first target to take profits was at $39.50. I am raising our stop loss to $35.90. Our second target is $42.40.

Chart:

Picked on     July 13 at $ 36.49 /gap higher entry
                               /originally listed at $35.93
Change since picked:      + 3.74
            gap higher exit   /1st target hit @ 39.95 (+9.4%)
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       6.8 million  
Listed on  July 13, 2009         


Lorillard - LO - close: 69.11 change: -0.87 stop: 67.90

Shares of LO were rebuffed again at the $70.00 level. The stock sank 1.2% under performing the rest of the market. We're not going to have much time if this stock can breakout over resistance. If triggered at $70.50 I'm raising our stop loss to $68.49. Our first target is $74.50. Our second target is $77.00. We have to exit by Friday to avoid earnings.

Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/27/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.5 million  
Listed on  July 18, 2009         


O'Reilly Automotive - ORLY - close: 41.07 change: +0.34 stop: 38.49

Traders bought the dip near $40.00 and its rising 10-dma. I don't see any changes from my previous comments. Our first target is $44.00. We do not want to hold positions over the July 29th earnings report.

Picked on     July 13 at $ 40.00
Change since picked:      + 1.07
Earnings Date           07/29/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.9 million  
Listed on  July 13, 2009         


Polaris - PII - close: 35.50 change: +1.10 stop: 31.45

PII has continued to rally and shares broke through resistance near $35.00. If the S&P 500 can keep the rally alive above 950 then I don't see any reason why PII can't keep its own rally going. Yet I don't want to chase this move but PII could be seeing a short squeeze.

I am suggesting that readers wait and buy calls on a dip in the $33.00-32.00 zone. We'll try and limit our risk with a stop loss at $31.45, which is just under Friday's low. Our first target is $37.25. Our second target is $39.50. Currently the Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $49.00 target.

Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/16/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       436 thousand 
Listed on  July 18, 2009         


SPX Corp. - SPW - close: 54.02 change: +1.75 stop: 47.95

Wow! SPW has broken out over resistance at the $54.00 level but it produced this move on pretty light volume. The stock is overbought. We don't want to chase it.

The plan is to buy calls on SPW with a dip in the $50.25-48.00 zone. I'm raising the stop loss to $47.95. If we don't see SPW contract soon (Monday or Tuesday) I'll probably drop it as a bullish candidate. We don't want to hold positions over the July 29th earnings report. Our first target is $53.75. Our second target is $57.00.

Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/29/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       777 thousand 
Listed on  July 15, 2009         


PUT Play Updates

Compass Minerals Intl. - CMP - cls: 50.50 change: +0.48 stop: 52.01 *new*

CMP is still in a down trend but if the S&P 500 confirms this breakout over 950 I would expect this stock to rebound. I'm lowering the stop loss to $52.01. More conservative traders may want to exit early. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. CMP has exceeded our first target at $47.50. Our second target is $43.00. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish with a $35 target.

Picked on     July 06 at $ 52.25 *triggered     
Change since picked:      - 1.75
                               /1st target hit @ 47.50 (-9.0%)
Earnings Date           07/28/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       792 thousand 
Listed on  June 29, 2009         


LEAP Wireless - LEAP - close: 26.73 change: +0.49 stop: 29.45

LEAP produced a little oversold bounce. The trend is still down. Readers may want to wait for another failed rally type of move in the $28-29 zone before opening positions. More conservative traders may want to avoid opening new bearish positions with the S&P 500 in rally mode.

Our first target is $22.65. Our second target is $20.25. The $22.50 level could be strong support so I suggest readers take off most of their position there. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish with a $19.00 target.

Picked on     July 17 at $ 26.80 *triggered    
Change since picked:      - 0.07
Earnings Date           08/06/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       2.2 million  
Listed on  July 16, 2009         


Sears Holdings - SHLD - close: 64.66 change: +1.94 stop: 65.05

The RLX retail index is soaring and is very close to resistance in the 345 region. The sector looks very short-term overbought with a non-stop rally from the 305 region. The question we have to ask is will SHLD break higher above the $65.00 level as the RLX retail index grinds higher those last few inches toward overhead resistance. Right now, with today's 3% gain in SHLD and its close over $64.00 and its 30-dma, I believe the odds are against us and suspect that SHLD will hit our stop loss at $65.05 tomorrow. It's also worth noting that the MACD on the daily chart is about to turn bullish. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on     July 07 at $ 59.75
Change since picked:      + 4.91
Earnings Date           08/27/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.2 million  
Listed on  July 07, 2009         


WestAmerica - WABC - close: 47.34 change: +0.27 stop: 50.05

WABC gapped higher on us this morning but the rally stalled under the 48.00 level. I would consider new bearish put positions in the $47.00-49.00 zone. Our first target is $41.50. Our second target is $38.00. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $37.00 target. Readers may want to trade October puts because WABC doesn't move that fast.

Picked on     July 18 at $ 47.61 /gap higher entry
                               /originally listed at $47.07
Change since picked:      - 0.27
Earnings Date           07/14/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       331 thousand 
Listed on  July 18, 2009         


Strangle & Spread Play Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

McDonald's - MCD - close: 58.28 change: +0.44 stop: n/a

MCD gapped higher on us but shares are still in our desired entry zone. The plan is to launch a strangle position ahead of the July 23rd earnings report that come out before the market opens. That means we need to launch positions before Wednesday's closing bell. We want to open positions in the 58.50-56.50 zone. The closer to $57.50 the better.

I suggested the August $60 calls (MCD-HL) and the August $55 puts (MCD-TK). Our estimated cost is $1.25 (0.70 + 0.55). We want to sell if either option hits $2.75 or higher. This may take several weeks to succeed.

Picked on     July 18 at $ 57.84
Change since picked:      + 0.44
Earnings Date           07/23/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       7.8 million  
Listed on  July 18, 2009         


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Bunge Ltd. - BG - close: 65.86 change: +0.91 stop: 59.35

We are running out of time on BG. The company is due to report earnings on July 23rd. While today's action looks like a short-term top we're not going to have time to wait for a correction and then buy calls on a bounce. I'm suggesting we kick BG off the play list tonight and wait to see how the market reacts to the company's earnings results on Thursday morning. Maybe then we'll see a new entry point. Truly aggressive and nimble traders may want to consider very brief bearish positions with a stop above today's high. BG looks overbought here after an eight-day run up. I would not hold over earnings. Our plan was to buy calls on a dip in the $61-60 zone.

Chart:

Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked:      + 0.00             *never opened*
Earnings Date           07/23/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.5 million  
Listed on  July 15, 2009         


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Weyerhaeuser - WY - close: 31.77 change: +1.13 stop: 31.51

Commodity and building-material-related stocks continued to climb. Shares of WY gained 3.6% and broke through multiple layers of resistance. The stock hit our stop loss at $31.51 closing the play.

Chart:

Picked on     July 04 at $ 29.51
Change since picked:      + 2.00<-- stopped out @ 31.51 (+6.7%)
Earnings Date           07/31/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       2.1 million  
Listed on  July 04, 2009