CALL Play Updates

Euro Currency ETF - FXE - close: 141.97 chg: -0.28 stop: 139.40 *new*

Strength in the dollar helped the FXE produce a little bearish engulfing candlestick. We can probably expect a dip back toward $141.00-140.00. The 50-dma has risen to $139.54 so I'm raising our stop loss to $139.40. Our first target is $144.50. Our second target is $148.50. The P&F chart is bullish with a $168 target.

Picked on     June 23 at $140.76
Change since picked:      + 1.21
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       461 thousand    
Listed on  June 23, 2009         


Gold Miner ETF - GDX - close: 39.74 change: -0.49 stop: 35.90

A bounce in the U.S. dollar sparked some selling in gold and the gold miners inched lower. Technically today's candlestick in the GDX is a one-day bearish reversal but we need to see confirmation. More conservative traders may want to raise their stops toward $36.50 or higher. I'm not suggesting new bullish positions. GDX has already exceeded our first target. Our second target is $42.40.

Picked on     July 13 at $ 36.49 /gap higher entry
                               /originally listed at $35.93
Change since picked:      + 3.25
            gap higher exit   /1st target hit @ 39.95 (+9.4%)
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       6.8 million  
Listed on  July 13, 2009         


Lorillard - LO - close: 69.93 change: +0.82 stop: 68.40

LO is rebounding and is once again testing major resistance at the $70.00 level. I'm raising our stop loss to $68.40 - if we get triggered. Our suggested entry point is $70.50. Our first target is $74.50. Our second target is $77.00. We have to exit by Friday to avoid earnings due out Monday morning.

Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/27/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.5 million  
Listed on  July 18, 2009         


O'Reilly Automotive - ORLY - close: 41.03 change: -0.04 stop: 38.49

Upward momentum is stalling in ORLY. It might be time to expect a dip back toward $39.00. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Wait for a dip or bounce near $39.00. Our first target is $44.00. We do not want to hold positions over the July 29th earnings report.

Picked on     July 13 at $ 40.00
Change since picked:      + 1.03
Earnings Date           07/29/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.9 million  
Listed on  July 13, 2009         


Polaris - PII - close: 35.55 change: +0.05 stop: 31.45

There wasn't much follow through on yesterday's bullish breakout over the $35.00 level. I am suggesting that readers wait and buy calls on a dip in the $33.00-32.00 zone. We'll try and limit our risk with a stop loss at $31.45, which is just under Friday's low. Our first target is $37.25. Our second target is $39.50. Currently the Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $49.00 target.

Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/16/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       436 thousand 
Listed on  July 18, 2009         


SPX Corp. - SPW - close: 54.02 change: +0.00 stop: 47.95

We have a similar story here. There was no follow through in SPW. The stock closed unchanged on the session but the move today looks like a failed rally at its exponential 200-dma. It's probably time for a correction.

The plan is to buy calls on SPW with a dip in the $50.25-48.00 zone. I'm raising the stop loss to $47.95. If we don't see SPW contract soon (Monday or Tuesday) I'll probably drop it as a bullish candidate. We don't want to hold positions over the July 29th earnings report. Our first target is $53.75. Our second target is $57.00.

Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/29/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       777 thousand 
Listed on  July 15, 2009         


PUT Play Updates

Compass Minerals Intl. - CMP - cls: 50.30 change: -0.20 stop: 52.01

CMP is still churning sideways near $50.00. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. CMP has exceeded our first target at $47.50. Our second target is $43.00. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish with a $35 target.

Picked on     July 06 at $ 52.25 *triggered     
Change since picked:      - 1.95
                               /1st target hit @ 47.50 (-9.0%)
Earnings Date           07/28/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       792 thousand 
Listed on  June 29, 2009         


LEAP Wireless - LEAP - close: 25.74 change: -0.99 stop: 29.45

Hmm... after yesterday I was expecting a bounce. The stock immediately failed this morning and closed at new relative lows. Volume was above average on the decline, which is bearish.

Our first target is $22.65. Our second target is $20.25. The $22.50 level could be strong support so I suggest readers take off most of their position there. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish with a $19.00 target.

Picked on     July 17 at $ 26.80 *triggered    
Change since picked:      - 1.06
Earnings Date           08/06/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       2.2 million  
Listed on  July 16, 2009         


WestAmerica - WABC - close: 46.30 change: -1.04 stop: 50.05

WABC continues to under perform the market. The stock broke down to new relative lows today. Our first target is $41.50. Our second target is $38.00. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $37.00 target. Readers may want to trade October puts because WABC doesn't move that fast.

Picked on     July 18 at $ 47.61 /gap higher entry
                               /originally listed at $47.07
Change since picked:      - 1.31
Earnings Date           07/14/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       331 thousand 
Listed on  July 18, 2009         


Strangle & Spread Play Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

McDonald's - MCD - close: 58.63 change: +0.35 stop: n/a

MCD gave us another chance to open strangles today with a dip to $57.91. I would narrow our preferred entry range to the $58.00-57.00 zone. The closer to $57.50 the better. Tomorrow is our last day to open positions ahead of the earnings report.

I suggested the August $60 calls (MCD-HL) and the August $55 puts (MCD-TK). Our estimated cost is $1.25 (0.70 + 0.55). We want to sell if either option hits $2.75 or higher. This may take several weeks to succeed.

Picked on     July 18 at $ 57.84
Change since picked:      + 0.79
Earnings Date           07/23/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       7.8 million  
Listed on  July 18, 2009         


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

AutoZone Inc. - AZO - close: 156.65 change: -0.33 stop: 154.25

Another day of random volatility in AZO has put an end to our bullish play. The stock immediately spiked lower, under performing the market, and eventually hit a low of $152.33 before bouncing back. Yesterday we had raised our stop loss to $154.25 following Monday's afternoon rebound. Our play is closed. Readers might want to try again on a bounce from the $148 level with a very tight stop or a breakout over $160.00.

Chart:

Picked on     July 14 at $158.77
Change since picked:      - 4.52 <-- stopped @ 154.25 (-2.8%)
Earnings Date           09/22/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.0 million  
Listed on  July 14, 2009         


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Sears Holdings - SHLD - close: 64.66 change: +1.94 stop: 65.05

I warned readers yesterday that odds were good SHLD would hit our stop loss today. Not only did SHLD break above $65.00 this morning but shares rebounded from their intraday lows to trade above resistance at $65.00 again right before the closing bell. Our play is closed at $65.05.

Chart:

Picked on     July 07 at $ 59.75
Change since picked:      + 5.30 <-- stopped out @ 65.05 (+8.8%)
Earnings Date           08/27/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.2 million  
Listed on  July 07, 2009