CALL Play Updates

Euro Currency ETF - FXE - close: 142.06 chg: +0.09 stop: 139.40

Slow and steady the trend in the FXE is still drifting higher. I wouldn't be surprised to see a dip back toward $141.00 or $140.00. Our first target is $144.50. Our second target is $148.50. The P&F chart is bullish with a $168 target.

Picked on     June 23 at $140.76
Change since picked:      + 1.30
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       461 thousand    
Listed on  June 23, 2009         


Gold Miner ETF - GDX - close: 39.77 change: +0.03 stop: 35.90

Neither gold, the gold miners, nor the U.S. dollar moved very much on Wednesday. The GDX is still struggling with round-number resistance at $40.00. It may be due for a little correction. More conservative traders may want to raise their stops toward $36.50 or higher. I'm not suggesting new bullish positions. GDX has already exceeded our first target. Our second target is $42.40.

Picked on     July 13 at $ 36.49 /gap higher entry
                               /originally listed at $35.93
Change since picked:      + 3.28
            gap higher exit   /1st target hit @ 39.95 (+9.4%)
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       6.8 million  
Listed on  July 13, 2009         


Lorillard - LO - close: 69.97 change: +0.04 stop: 68.40

Rival Altria (MO) reported earnings this morning that were better than expected and the company raised their guidance. That should have been good news for the likes of LO. Shares of LO did rally on the MO news but the rally failed at $71.00 and closed back at resistance near $70.00. This move is a failed rally/bull-trap sort of set up. We were triggered at $70.50 this morning but I am not suggesting new positions at this time. We only have two days left and will plan to exit on Friday at the closing bell if LO doesn't hit our target or stop first. Our first target is $74.50.

Chart:

Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/27/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.5 million  
Listed on  July 18, 2009         


O'Reilly Automotive - ORLY - close: 41.06 change: +0.00 stop: 38.75 *new*

We need to keep an eye on the RLX retail index. It is nearing significant resistance and if the RLX rolls over it could have a severely negative impact on shares of ORLY. It's possible that shares of ORLY might be able to shrug off some retail weakness since the company is a specialty retailer/services hybrid but the stock might also be a target for profit taking. Shares of ORLY did hit a new all-time high this morning. I am inching up our stop loss to $38.75. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target is $44.00. We do not want to hold positions over the July 29th earnings report.

Picked on     July 13 at $ 40.00
Change since picked:      + 1.06
Earnings Date           07/29/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.9 million  
Listed on  July 13, 2009         


Polaris - PII - close: 34.81 change: -0.74 stop: 31.45

PII is starting to correct. I am suggesting that readers wait and buy calls on a dip in the $33.00-32.00 zone. We'll try and limit our risk with a stop loss at $31.45, which is just under Friday's low. Our first target is $37.25. Our second target is $39.50. Currently the Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $49.00 target.

Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/16/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       436 thousand 
Listed on  July 18, 2009         


PUT Play Updates

Compass Minerals Intl. - CMP - cls: 49.16 change: -1.14 stop: 52.01

The oversold bounce in CMP is finally starting to roll over. This could be used as a new bearish entry point but readers need to keep in mind that we plan to exit ahead of the July 28th earnings report. Plus, if you're launching new positions now you may want to use a slightly tighter stop loss. CMP has exceeded our first target at $47.50. Our second target is $43.00. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish with a $35 target.

Picked on     July 06 at $ 52.25 *triggered     
Change since picked:      - 3.09
                               /1st target hit @ 47.50 (-9.0%)
Earnings Date           07/28/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       792 thousand 
Listed on  June 29, 2009         


LEAP Wireless - LEAP - close: 25.41 change: -0.33 stop: 29.45

LEAP continues to hit new relative lows. Our first target is $22.65. Our second target is $20.25. The $22.50 level could be strong support so I suggest readers take off most of their position there. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish with a $19.00 target.

Picked on     July 17 at $ 26.80 *triggered    
Change since picked:      - 1.39
Earnings Date           08/06/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       2.2 million  
Listed on  July 16, 2009         


S&P 500 SPDRS - SPY - close: 95.55 change: -0.02 stop: 97.01 *new*

Our highly speculative put play on the S&P 500 SPDRs is off to a decent start. I was expecting a gap open higher but the SPY actually gapped open lower. Our new entry point is $94.96. I am lowering our stop loss to $97.01. More conservative traders may want to consider a stop near $96.50. Our first target is $92.00 or the 50-dma, whichever one the SPY hits first.

Entry  on     July 22 at $ 94.96
Change since picked:      + 0.59
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       197 million  
Listed on  July 21, 2009         


WestAmerica - WABC - close: 46.05 change: -0.25 stop: 50.05

WABC is still showing relative weakness. The stock lost another 0.5% and set new relative lows. Our first target is $41.50. Our second target is $38.00. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $37.00 target. Readers may want to trade October puts because WABC doesn't move that fast.

Picked on     July 18 at $ 47.61 /gap higher entry
                               /originally listed at $47.07
Change since picked:      - 1.56
Earnings Date           07/14/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       331 thousand 
Listed on  July 18, 2009         


Strangle & Spread Play Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

McDonald's - MCD - close: 58.82 change: +0.19 stop: n/a

MCD spiked higher this morning and did not offer another entry point. Our time to launch strangle positions ahead of earnings is over. MCD reports tomorrow morning before the bell. Wall Street estimates are at a profit of 97 cents a share.

I suggested the August $60 calls (MCD-HL) and the August $55 puts (MCD-TK). Our estimated cost is $1.25 (0.70 + 0.55). We want to sell if either option hits $2.75 or higher. This may take several weeks to succeed.

Picked on     July 18 at $ 57.84
Change since picked:      + 0.98
Earnings Date           07/23/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       7.8 million  
Listed on  July 18, 2009         


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

SPX Corp. - SPW - close: 54.11 change: +0.09 stop: 47.95

The rally in SPW is also starting to stall. Shares continue to struggle with the exponential 200-dma. Unfortunately we're running out of time to wait for the correction and then catch a rebound. SPW reports earnings next week. I would still keep this stock on your watch list for a new bullish entry point I wouldn't open any positions until after we see how the market reacts to the July 29th earnings announcement. I'm dropping SPW as a bullish candidate. Shares never hit our trigger near $50.00.

Chart:

Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked:      + 0.00              *never opened*
Earnings Date           07/29/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       777 thousand 
Listed on  July 15, 2009