CALL Play Updates

Euro Currency ETF - FXE - close: 141.95 chg: -0.11 stop: 139.40

The FXE and the dollar continue to drift sideways although the larger trend in the FXE is up. I wouldn't be surprised to see a dip back toward $141.00 or $140.00. Our first target is $144.50. Our second target is $148.50. The P&F chart is bullish with a $168 target.

Picked on     June 23 at $140.76
Change since picked:      + 1.19
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       461 thousand    
Listed on  June 23, 2009         


Gold Miner ETF - GDX - close: 39.96 change: +0.19 stop: 35.90

An afternoon bounce in the dollar took the wind out of the rally for commodities and the GDX Followed them lower. Shares only gained 0.4%. More conservative traders may want to raise their stops toward $36.50 or higher. I'm not suggesting new bullish positions. GDX has already exceeded our first target. Our second target is $42.40.

Picked on     July 13 at $ 36.49 /gap higher entry
                               /originally listed at $35.93
Change since picked:      + 3.47
            gap higher exit   /1st target hit @ 39.95 (+9.4%)
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       6.8 million  
Listed on  July 13, 2009         


Lorillard - LO - close: 72.11 change: +2.14 stop: 69.95 *new*

A better than expected earnings report and raised guidance from rival Phillip Morris Intl. (PM) helped launch LO higher. The stock finally broke through resistance near $70.00 with some conviction. Unfortunately, tomorrow is our last day. We plan to exit on Friday at the closing bell to avoid holding over Monday's earnings report. Given our remaining time frame I'm upping the stop loss to $69.95. More aggressive traders might want to consider holding over the earnings report and giving the stop more room. Our first target is $74.50.

Picked on     July 22 at $ 70.50 *triggered  
Change since picked:      + 1.61
Earnings Date           07/27/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.5 million  
Listed on  July 18, 2009         


O'Reilly Automotive - ORLY - close: 41.10 change: +0.04 stop: 39.95 *new*

The stock market breaks out to new highs for 2009 and ORLY only churns sideways! That's not a good sign. I'm raising our stop loss to $39.95 and more conservative traders may want to just abandon ship early, especially given the downturn stocks are seeing after hours. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target is $44.00. We do not want to hold positions over the July 29th earnings report.

Picked on     July 13 at $ 40.00
Change since picked:      + 1.10
Earnings Date           07/29/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.9 million  
Listed on  July 13, 2009         


Polaris - PII - close: 36.33 change: +1.52 stop: 31.45

It looks like the market is poised to correct on the MSFT and AMZN earnings out Thursday night. We're sticking to our plan. I am suggesting that readers wait and buy calls on a dip in the $33.00-32.00 zone. We'll try and limit our risk with a stop loss at $31.45, which is just under Friday's low. Our first target is $37.25. Our second target is $39.50. Currently the Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $49.00 target.

Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/16/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       436 thousand 
Listed on  July 18, 2009         


PUT Play Updates

Caterpillar - CAT - close: 41.26 change: +2.60 stop: 41.65 *new*

Whoa! Our CAT put play is still alive by the smallest of margins. The stock rallied to $41.50 this afternoon. I'm bumping that stop loss from $41.51 to $41.65 just in case there is a minor pop tomorrow morning. However, it looks like stocks are selling off after hours thanks to disappointments in AMZN and MSFT. I would use today's bounce as a new entry point to buy puts on CAT. Our first target to take profits is at $35.25.

Picked on     July 22 at $ 38.66
Change since picked:      + 2.60
Earnings Date           07/21/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        15 million  
Listed on  July 22, 2009         


Compass Minerals Intl. - CMP - cls: 46.89 change: -2.27 stop: 51.05*new*

CMP has surpassed our first target again. The stock seriously under performed the market with a 4.6% sell-off on big volume. I did not see any company specific news to account for the weakness. I'm lowering our stop loss to $51.05. Our second target is $43.00.

Picked on     July 06 at $ 52.25 *triggered     
Change since picked:      - 5.36
                               /1st target hit @ 47.50 (-9.0%)
Earnings Date           07/28/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       792 thousand 
Listed on  June 29, 2009         


Genzyme Corp. - GENZ - close: 52.17 change: +0.96 stop: 54.15 *new*

Yesterday I suggested that GENZ might make another rally attempt but would fail near previous support around $53.50. Sure enough the stock spiked to $53.62 this morning and rolled over. I am altering our entry point strategy. Let's open half our position now with a stop loss at $54.15. Then we'll open the second half of our position on a breakdown under $50.00 at our original trigger at $49.90. Our first target is $45.50. Our second, multi-week target is $40.50.

1st Entry on  July 23 at $ 52.17 *1/2 of position
2nd Entry on  July xx at $ xx.xx (2nd half @ trigger 49.90)
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/22/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       2.8 million  
Listed on  July 22, 2009         


LEAP Wireless - LEAP - close: 25.88 change: +0.47 stop: 29.45

LEAP's oversold bounce produced a 1.8% gain. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target is $22.65. Our second target is $20.25. The $22.50 level could be strong support so I suggest readers take off most of their position there. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish with a $19.00 target.

Picked on     July 17 at $ 26.80 *triggered    
Change since picked:      - 0.92
Earnings Date           08/06/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       2.2 million  
Listed on  July 16, 2009         


S&P 500 SPDRS - SPY - close: 97.66 change: +2.11 stop: 98.55 *new*

It looks like we were one day too early on calling a top in the S&P 500. The index finally produced a convincing breakout higher. Yet after hours the market is falling fast on disappointing earnings reports from AMZN and MSFT. Our put play was stopped out at $97.01. I'm suggesting aggressive traders reload and pull the trigger again with a new stop at $98.55. Our target is the $92.50-92.00 zone. (FYI: Odds are decent the SPY could gap open lower tomorrow)

** 2nd attempt, new entry @ 97.66 **
Entry  on     July 23 at $ 97.66
Change since picked:      - 0.00
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       197 million  
Listed on  July 21, 2009

** 1st Attempt stopped out @ 97.01 **
Entry  on     July 22 at $ 94.96
Change since picked:      + 2.05 <-- stopped @ 97.01 (+2.1%)
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       197 million  
Listed on  July 21, 2009         


United Technologies - UTX - close: 53.38 change: +0.26 stop: 55.05

Bears should be happy with the relative under performance in UTX today. Volume was pretty strong but the stock didn't move much. I would still open new put positions here. Our first target to take profits is at $50.15.

Picked on     July 22 at $ 53.12
Change since picked:      + 0.26
Earnings Date           07/21/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       5.9 million  
Listed on  July 22, 2009         


WestAmerica - WABC - close: 48.55 change: +2.50 stop: 50.05

The stock market's bullish breakout higher on Thursday sparked some short covering in WABC. Shares surged more than 5% and rallied straight to technical resistance at the 200-dma. I am suggesting readers use this oversold bounce as a new entry point for put positions. Our first target is $41.50. Our second target is $38.00. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $37.00 target. Readers may want to trade October puts because WABC doesn't move that fast.

Picked on     July 18 at $ 47.61 /gap higher entry
                               /originally listed at $47.07
Change since picked:      + 0.94 
Earnings Date           07/14/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       331 thousand 
Listed on  July 18, 2009         


Strangle & Spread Play Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

McDonald's - MCD - close: 56.09 change: -2.73 stop: n/a

Investors were unhappy with MCD's earnings report even though same store sales around the world rose more than 4%. Shares gapped open lower and plunged toward the $56.00 level and its 100-dma. The August $55 puts spiked toward .95. I am not suggesting new strangle positions at this time.

I suggested the August $60 calls (MCD-HL) and the August $55 puts (MCD-TK). Our estimated cost is $1.25 (0.70 + 0.55). We want to sell if either option hits $2.75 or higher. This may take several weeks to succeed.

Picked on     July 18 at $ 57.84
Change since picked:      - 1.75
Earnings Date           07/23/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       7.8 million  
Listed on  July 18, 2009