CALL Play Updates

Fluor Corp. - FLR - close: 58.21 change: +2.21 stop: 49.45 *new*

The better than expected jobs number fueled the rally for another day. FLR broke out to new highs for the year. I was ready to raise our trigger to buy a dip on this stock toward the $55-54 zone but the company reports earnings on August 10th. That's Monday and the results come out after the closing bell. I am going to leave our trigger to buy calls at $51.00 for two more days. If FLR doesn't see a correction on Tuesday morning then we'll change our entry strategy.

Suggested Options:
Wait for a dip to $51.00 and then buy the September calls.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 51.00
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           08/10/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       2.4 million  
Listed on  July 25, 2009         


Euro Currency ETF - FXE - close: 141.67 chg: -1.84 stop: 139.95

The jobs number also fueled a rally in the U.S. dollar. That pushed the FXE to a 1.2% decline. Overall the longer-term trend is still up. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Our first target is $144.50. Our second target is $148.50. The P&F chart is bullish with a $168 target.

Suggested Options:
I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on     June 23 at $140.76
Change since picked:      + 0.91
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       461 thousand    
Listed on  June 23, 2009         


Gold Miner ETF - GDX - close: 39.98 change: -0.87 stop: 36.90

The sharp rally in the dollar pushed gold futures lower and the miners followed. The GDX gave up 2%. Shares are still hovering around the neckline to the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. At this point I'd look for a bounce near $39.00 or over $41.00 before considering new positions. GDX has already exceeded our first target. Our second target is $44.00.

Suggested Options:
If the GDX provides a new entry point I'd consider the September calls.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on     July 13 at $ 36.49 /gap higher entry
                               /originally listed at $35.93
Change since picked:      + 3.49
            gap higher exit   /1st target hit @ 39.95 (+9.4%)
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       6.8 million  
Listed on  July 13, 2009         


IDEXX Labs - IDXX - close: 50.97 change: +0.77 stop: 44.95

The rally in IDXX on Friday was not very convincing. Shares ran out of steam near $51.50 and started to roll over. Volume was very light. I hesitate to buy new call positions here. Currently we have two strategies for IDXX.

Aggressive strategy: Entry point at $51.10. Stop loss at $48.99. Our first target is $54.85. I suggest very small positions sizes (about 1/4 of your normal trading size).

Original plan is to buy calls at $47.50 with a stop at $44.95. If triggered at $47.50 our first target is $52.00. Our second target is $54.90. Our time frame is six to eight weeks once triggered.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $77 target.

Suggested Options:
I am not suggesting new positions at this time except for a dip back to $47.50. If IDXX hits our trigger at $47.50 we want to buy the September or October calls.

Annotated Chart:

*Aggressive Strategy*
Entry on    August 05 at $ 51.10 *stop loss @ 48.99   
Change since picked:      - 0.13

*Original Strategy*
Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGERs @ 47.50 
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/24/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       383 thousand 
Listed on  July 25, 2009         


J.C.Penney - JCP - close: 34.43 change: +3.03 stop: 29.99 *new*

Target achieved. JCP exploded higher on Friday with a 9.6% gain on above average volume. It looks like the jobs data sparked some short covering in the retail sector. The high in JCP on Friday was $34.54. Our first target to take profits was $32.75. We still have a second target to exit completely at $34.90. I am raising our stop loss to $29.99. More conservative traders may want to use a higher stop. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. This was an aggressive trade using half our normal position size.

Suggested Options:
I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   August 03 at $ 31.05 *triggered /gap higher entry
Change since picked:      + 3.38
                               /1st target hit @ 32.75 (+5.4%)
Earnings Date           08/14/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       5.5 million  
Listed on August 01, 2009         


Legg Mason - LM - close: 28.50 change: +0.25 stop: 23.99

LM's participation in the rally on Friday was anemic. Shares briefly traded above last week's highs and rolled over. I'm sticking with our plan to buy a dip. Our trigger is $25.55. If triggered our first target is $29.75. Our second target is $33.40. My time frame is six to eight weeks. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $39 target.

Suggested Options:
If triggered we want to buy the September calls. Strikes are available at $1.00 increments.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER 25.55
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/20/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       3.4 million  
Listed on  July 25, 2009         


Lorillard Inc. - LO - close: 72.81 change: -0.06 stop: 69.45

LO also delivered a poor performance on Friday. Shares actually closed lower and the MACD indicator on the daily chart is nearing a new sell signal. We are still waiting for a dip near $70.00 with a trigger to buy calls at $70.50. Our first target is $74.50. Our second target is $77.00. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $92.00 target.

Suggested Options:
If LO hits our trigger we want to buy the September calls.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/27/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.5 million  
Listed on August 01, 2009         


Polaris - PII - close: 38.78 change: +1.01 stop: 31.95

The trend is up but after four weeks of gains the rally in PII appears to be stalling near the $39-40 zone. We're waiting for a correction. The plan is to buy calls at $34.15. Our first target is $37.50. Our second target is $39.90. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $43.50 target.

Note: More aggressive traders could buy puts right here with a stop loss just above $40.00 and exit in the $35 region.

Suggested Options:
If PII hits our trigger at $34.15 we want to buy the September calls.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 34.15
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/16/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       436 thousand 
Listed on  July 18, 2009         


PUT Play Updates

Genzyme - GENZ - close: 48.19 change: -0.61 stop: 52.55

The biotech sector is still under performing the market. GENZ is also under performing. The stock is down six days in a row. Eventually shares will see an oversold bounce. The stock actually gapped down on Friday morning after Goldman Sachs added it to their "conviction sell" list.

I would look for a failed rally near $50.00 or $52.00 as a new entry point to buy puts. Our first target to take profits is $45.25. Our second target is $41.00. The P&F chart is bearish with a $40 target.

Suggested Options:
If GENZ provides a new entry point we want to buy the September or October puts.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   August 03 at $ 49.90 *triggered         
Change since picked:      - 1.71
Earnings Date           10/22/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       3.9 million  
Listed on August 01, 2009         


Biotech Ishares - IBB - close: 76.92 change: +0.37 stop: 80.75

Biotech stocks tried to bounce but didn't make it very far. Both the IBB and BTK index rebounded from their intraday lows but both lagged the broader markets. Look for another failed rally pattern in the IBB before launching new positions. Currently our exit target is $75.10. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the $74-73 area.

Suggested Options:
If the IBB provides a new entry point we want to use the August or September puts. Just remember that August puts expire in two weeks.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on     July 30 at $ 79.44
Change since picked:      - 2.52
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       892 thousand 
Listed on  July 30, 2009         


QQQ ProShares - QLD - close: 45.50 change: +1.02 stop: 46.55

Percentage wise the NASDAQ and associated indices and ETFs all delivered decent gains today. The QLD rose 2.2%. Yet none of them traded above their recent highs. The S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 and the Dow Industrials all broke out to new highs. The NASDAQ failed. The $46.00 level was a lid on the QLD all day long.

Now the market's trend is clearly up and more conservative traders may want to exit immediately. I suggest we hold on. We already knew this was a high-risk, aggressive trade and the failure to hit new highs is encouraging. If the rally sees any follow through on Monday we will probably be stopped out. Our target is $40.50.

Suggested Options:
I hesitate to suggest new bearish positions here but I might consider it with a tighter stop closer to $46.00.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on     July 30 at $ 44.89 
Change since picked:      + 0.61
Earnings Date           00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume =      13.5 million  
Listed on  July 30, 2009         


VistaPrint - VPRT - close: 43.00 change: +1.03 stop: 42.05

VPRT printed out a 2.4% bounce on Friday but volume was very light. If you want to participate in our aggressive strategy look for the bounce to roll over in the $43-44 zone and then buy puts. Our normal trade remains unopened.

Aggressive strategy: Buy puts in the $42.00-44.00 zone with a stop loss at $44.05. Targets at $35.20 and $31.50.

Original strategy: Buy puts with a trigger at $38.80. Stop loss at $42.05. If triggered at $38.80 our first target is $35.20. Our second target is $31.50.

Suggested Options:
August options expire in two weeks but more aggressive traders may want to use them over the Septembers.

Annotated Chart:

*Original Strategy*
Picked on   August xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 38.80
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/30/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.3 million  
Listed on August 01, 2009         

*Aggressive Trade (small position 1/2 to 1/4 your normal size)*
Picked on   August 04 at $ 42.59   (stop loss @ 44.05)
Change since picked:      + 0.41


Wynn Resorts - WYNN - close: 58.47 change: +2.88 stop: 60.26

Seeing WYNN pop on the better than expected jobs number is not a surprise. What is somewhat surprising is that shares failed to test the $60.00 level. Look for another failed rally type of move in WYNN before launching new put positions.

Due to the high-risk nature of the trade I am suggesting very small position sizes at least 1/2 to 1/4 your normal trade. Our first target is $51.00. Our second target is $48.00.

Suggested Options:
If WYNN provides a new entry point we want to use the August or September puts. Just remember that August options expire in two weeks.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   August 05 at $ 56.57
Change since picked:      + 1.90
Earnings Date           10/29/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       4.7 million  
Listed on August 05, 2009         


Strangle & Spread Play Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

McDonald's - MCD - close: 55.20 change: +0.36 stop: n/a

We have two weeks left before August options expire. More conservative traders may want to consider an early exit now. The puts are trading at .70bid/0.75ask. MCD continues to be an under performer in the Dow and shares didn't react much to the jobs report on Friday. It seems like the put side of our trade is still our best bet. Please note I am lowering the exit price to $2.50. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

I suggested the August $60 calls (MCD-HL) and the August $55 puts (MCD-TK). Our estimated cost is $1.25 (0.70 + 0.55). We want to sell if either option hits $2.50 or higher.

Suggested Options:
No new positions at this time.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on     July 18 at $ 57.84
Change since picked:      - 2.74
Earnings Date           07/23/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       7.8 million  
Listed on  July 18, 2009         


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

S&P 100 index - OEX - close: 468.07 change: +4.60 stop: 458.10

Target achieved. The market's rally on the better than expected jobs number sent the OEX to $472.02. Our target to exit was $469.00. We might want to reconsider new bullish positions on a dip or bounce near 445-440.

Chart:

Picked on     July 30 at $458.10 *triggered              
Change since picked:      +10.90 /target hit @ 469.00 (+2.3%)
Earnings Date           00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume =        xx 
Listed on  July 28, 2009         


Trina Solar - TSL - close: 28.59 change: +0.14 stop: 26.69

The market is in rally mode and the best TSL can do is 14 cents? That's not strong enough for me. More aggressive traders may want to let it right. I am suggesting an early exit right here. We can reconsider bullish positions on a bounce near $25.00 or a rise over $30.50.

FYI: This was a very aggressive, higher-risk trade and I suggested smaller than normal position sizes (1/2 to 1/4 the norm) because of our aggressive entry point.

Chart:

Picked on   August 04 at $ 29.97
Change since picked:      - 1.38 <-- exit early @ 28.59 (-4.6%)
Earnings Date           08/18/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.7 million  
Listed on August 04, 2009         


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Lockheed Martin - LMT - close: 76.76 change: +1.06 stop: 77.05

LMT managed to temporarily rally above resistance at its 200-dma and trade above the $77.00 level hitting our stop loss at $77.05 in the process. Our put play has been closed. If the oversold bounce in this stock continues I would watch for additional resistance near $80.00.

Chart:

Picked on   August 05 at $ 74.32
Change since picked:      + 2.73<-- stopped @ 77.05 (+3.6%)
Earnings Date           10/21/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       3.4 million  
Listed on August 05, 2009